


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI
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859 FXUS63 KARX 100900 AFDARX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 400 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Low to moderate (50%) confidence for storms today into tonight with low (20%) confidence in exact location or associated timing. - Ongoing early morning storms primarily affect counties along and east of the Mississippi River Valley from northeast Iowa into southeast Minnesota. - Heavy rain will be the main concern as storm chances continue into Saturday. Flash flooding concerns where storms frequent. Current confidence (20-50%) places highest accumulations locally in southwest Wisconsin and northeast Iowa. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 340 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Ongoing Early Morning Convection: A meridionally oriented line of storms decaying whilst advecting east on radar loops followed an upper level perturbation on GOES upper level water vapor loops steered by synoptic anticyclonic flow centered over the Desert Southwest yesterday (Tuesday). As the perturbation rounded the periphery early this morning, a north-south separation in storms occurred overnight with strongest storms in the southernmost line jogging southeast through the Central Missouri River Valley. Within this separation, easterly propagating storms have been initiating and filling in on a meager zonally-oriented low level boundary from northern Iowa into southern Minnesota most evident on VWPs. Supplemented by outgoing cold pools, reinvigoratedconvection has been initializing along the Iowa- Minnesota border heading east towards the Upper Mississippi River Valley, providing local morning storm chances primarily west of the Mississippi River Valley in southeast Minnesota and northeast Iowa. Easterly limiting factor is a well-defined low level frontal boundary bifurcating the forecast area on VWPs. If storms do affect counties along and just east of the Mississippi River Valley, expect limited coverage in a disjointed arc in a limited timeframe as a filament of Fgen has been initiating storms ahead of the line all morning. Through today, any minute differences in any mesoscale influences will exert a large impact over time and downstream. This will in turn limit overall predictability with subsequent rounds of convection. This is quite evident in high resolution model reflectivity solutions and accompanying trends for today. Storm Chances Through Tonight: The eastern progressivity of the synoptic pattern through the late morning into the early afternoon pushes the aforementioned frontal boundary east, allowing more moist air locally, and limited storm chances pushing east of the Mississippi River Valley; eventually reinvigorating through central Wisconsin concurrent with diurnal heating building instability. While trends in high resolution forecast models have been to limit additional storm chances for counties in southeast Minnesota and northeast Iowa at this time, they can`t be ruled out as a trailing MCV over the South Dakota-Minnesota border at AFD issuance and subsequent deformation axis may be supplemented by building instability should sky cover somewhat clear. Regardless of exact location of initiation, this storm possibility persists through the afternoon into the evening, again conditional on location of clearing concurrent with mesoscale forcing. Additional strong to severe storm chances this evening into tonight dependent on multiple bouts of storm chances through today. Strong to Severe Storm Potential Today: The many potential mesoscale boundaries strewn over the forecast area present infinite challenges in nailing down specifics surrounding severe storm potential today and tonight. While there will be ample CAPE 1000 J/kg+, there is little to no shear until this evening through tonight when the anticyclonically curved mid to upper level wave with stronger winds progresses through the Upper Mississippi River Valley. Therefore, shear dependency will be on mesoscale influences from floating boundaries and various circulations potentially providing some stronger to severe storms. All remains conditional on clearing skies and strength/location of boundaries. Heavy Rain, Potential Flash Flooding Impacts Today: Higher concern will be heavy rain with 90th percentile PWATs (1.5"+) in the 10.00Z RAOB at Aberdeen and warm cloud depths 11,000+ ft in high resolution soundings. Storm motion will remain dependent on nebulous mesoscale influences and with stunted, near circular hodographs, flash flooding will be a concern should storms frequent the same areas. Overall moderate confidence (~50%) for 0.5" of rainfall before Friday morning across the forecast area. A wet tail in 25th (~0.1") to 75th (1.5") percentile box and whiskers shows lower confidence for higher amounts. Most models suggest highest rainfall amounts locally from northeast Iowa into southwest Wisconsin. Exact location of highest rainfall amounts widely varies both between and within model trends. Evident in a nil trend for histograms and recent HRRR runs with bullseyes of 4" (10.00Z) to 7" (10.06Z) by Friday morning. All goes to say flash flooding will be a concern to monitor while storms are ongoing. Storms Through Friday: Overall confidence for storms increase through Friday morning as a the synoptic trough over the Rocky Mountain West on early morning GOES water vapor imagery progresses through the Northern Plains. Unfortunately, there remains much to be ironed out as many unknowns remain. Can expect a southwest-northeast oriented line of storms associated with a defined frontal boundary from the Central to Northern Plains pushing east/southeast and a potentially quasi-zonal line of storms pushing east/northeast along and south of the forecast area through afternoon and evening on the remnants of tonight`s ill-defined quasi-zonal frontal boundary. Remains quite a moist airmass (1.5"+) persisting heavy rain concerns. Location of remnant frontal boundary and eastern extent of upstream prefrontal moist air plume leave no confidence in location of higher instability or shear for that matter. Cooler Next Week, Low Confidence In Precipitation: Storm chances depart through Saturday as a continental Canadian airmass comes into the Upper Midwest keeping daytime highs from the 70s into the low 80s on Saturday. The butterfly effect theme continues through the week given low (20-40%) LREF confidence in quasi-zonal flow and accompanying perturbations progressing through the central CONUS. Outside of Wednesday when confidence for measurable precipitation in 24 hours is 70-100% in all LREF members (GEFS/EPS/GEPS), probabilities vary from 0-100% during any 24 hour period between members. Slightly higher confidence for slightly cooler than normal temperatures with 100% confidence for the 80 degree surface isotherm lieing along and to the south of the forecast area (LREF). && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1234 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Line of storms at 10.06Z TAF issuance seen over the SD-MN border progressing east at 40mph and expected to weaken as they approach the local forecast area in southeast Minnesota and northeast Iowa through the morning hours. Low to moderate confidence (30-50%) in precipitation primarily west of the Mississippi River Valley keeps mention out of either TAF but immediate term amendments may be needed should storm intensity persist. Similar confidence across the forecast area through most of the 10.06Z forecast period as multiple bouts of storms, some strong, will be possible. Again, haven`t included 18+ hours of PROB30 in TAFs and will require ongoing amendment when confidence increases. Where storms do form, visibility restrictions <1SM from heavy rain will be possible and MVFR-IFR ceilings. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JAR AVIATION...JAR