000
FXUS63 KARX 010954
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
354 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH TONIGHT IS ON A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SOME FLURRIES
ALONG WITH IT.

ZONAL TO SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS SET UP ALOFT WITH A CUTOFF LOW OVER
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS
SOUTH FROM WESTERN ONTARIO DOWN THROUGH WESTERN MINNESOTA. A
2-3KFT CLOUD DECK EXTENDING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA UP INTO
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN HAS BEEN PRODUCING FLURRIES ACROSS THAT BAND.
EXPECT THAT THESE FLURRIES WILL DIMINISH AS THE DAY PROCEEDS AND
DRIER AIR MOVES IN WITH THE WEAK COLD FRONT. AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...SOME WARMER AIR WILL BE ADVECTED UP INTO THE REGION WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE/LOW LEVEL WINDS WHICH WILL HELP HIGHS TO
GET INTO THE 20S BY THIS AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR NEXT WEEK IS WITH THE SNOW/BLOWING SNOW ON
TUESDAY AS A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM COMES THROUGH. 01.00Z MODEL
TRENDS ARE GOING TOWARD A WEAKER/FASTER SYSTEM AS COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS RUNS. THE CUT OFF LOW OVER CALIFORNIA WILL EJECT
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND RAPIDLY PHASE WITH
A CLOSED MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA ON TUESDAY.
THROUGH THE EVENT...THE 01.00Z NAM APPEARS TO BE A DRY/NORTH TRACK
OUTLIER COMPARED TO THE PREFERRED 01.00Z GFS/ECMWF. SO...HAVE
TRENDED THE FORECAST CLOSER TO THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH
DEVELOPS SNOW ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT IN A WEST TO EAST
BAND ALONG THE NOSE OF LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE MAIN
SNOWFALL WILL COME TUESDAY MORNING BETWEEN 12-18Z AS THE SURFACE
LOW/SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRACKS INTO THE REGION. BASED ON THIS
PATH...THE MAIN DEFORMATION BAND LOOKS LIKE IT WILL SET UP FROM
NORTH CENTRAL IOWA THROUGH SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN WHICH IS WHERE CONFIDENCE IS THE HIGHEST THAT A BAND OF
3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER IN SNOW
TOTALS GOING TOWARD SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN WHERE SNOW RATIOS WILL
LIKELY BE LOWER WITH THE WARM SECTOR NEAR BY. FROM THE SNOW
ALONE...THIS LOOKS LIKE A SOLID WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EVENT FOR
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

ONCE THE LOW TRACKS EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH...WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTHWEST IN THE
AFTERNOON. WITH THE LOW NOT LOOKING AS DEEP AND QUICKLY MOVING
OUT...THE WINDS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BRIEFLY HAVE SOME HIGH GUSTS
IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE BEFORE DIMINISHING INTO THE 20-30MPH
RANGE IN THE EVENING. WITH THE FRESH SNOW DOWN FROM EARLIER IN THE
DAY...THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY CAUSE SOME BLOWING SNOW ISSUES
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA INTO THE EVENING.
WITH WINDS BEING ON THE DECREASING TREND FROM THE PAST FEW
MODELS...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH ANY SORT OF
WATCH AT THIS POINT...PARTICULARLY FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. THE
POSSIBILITY IS THERE...JUST WOULD LIKE TO BUILD SOME CONFIDENCE
THAT THE WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A LONG ENOUGH OF A
DURATION BEFORE GOING THAT ROUTE. THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO
APPEARS TO BE WHERE THE ADVISORY EXTENDS FROM THE PERIOD OF
SNOWFALL THROUGH THE NIGHT WHEN THE WINDS ARE AT THEIR STRONGEST.

BEYOND THIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH A COOL AIR MASS LINGERING THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE A
WARMING TREND SETS UP FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1111 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

AREA INFLUENCED BY SHORT WAVE PASSING BY TO THE SOUTH IN PSUEDO
ZONAL FLOW AND A FEW WAVES IN NORTHWEST FLOW TO THE NORTH.

VARIETY OF LOWER AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH
TONIGHT...MAINLY IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
DROPPING OUT OF CANADA. BESIDES SOME OCCASIONAL FLURRIES...MAIN
CONCERN IS CEILINGS WHICH ARE MAINLY VFR. STRIP OF MVFR ADVECTING
THROUGH AREA EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED.
COULD SEE SOME CLEARING BEFORE NEXT WAVE DROPS WHAT LOOKS LIKE MORE
MID LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH LATER IN DAY...AS SOUTHERLY FLOW VEERS TO
NORTHWEST HEADING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...SHEA