Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 261132
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
632 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 234 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

SPOTTY SHOWERS AROUND LAST NIGHT CREATED SOME COOLER AREAS...MAINLY
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING LEADING TO
PATCHY DENSE FOG BUT THAT SHOULD CLEAR EARLY.

AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN THE WESTERN U.S. AREA WILL REMAIN IN PESKY
NORTHWEST FLOW. CHALLENGE FOR SHORT TERM IS HOW MUCH COVERAGE WOULD
ANY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE GIVEN HOW
THESE HAVE FORMED IN SUBTLE...SCATTERED FASHION.

WHILE BULK OF STRONGER CONVECTION IS LOCKED ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WELL SOUTH OF AREA...WEAK SHORT WAVE EXITING DAKOTAS CONTINUES TO
SPREAD MAINLY SHOWERS BETWEEN INTERSTATES 80 AND 90 THIS MORNING.
THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS IOWA INTO ILLINOIS
TODAY SO HAVE KEPT BEST RAIN CHANCES IN SOUTHERN AREAS INTO EARLY
EVENING.

COMPLICATING FACTOR IS THERE IS A SMALL THREAT FOR LATE DAY SHOWERS
OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM IN NEARLY ANY AREA SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 94 WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SMALL AMOUNT OF MLCAPE.
KEPT RAIN CHANCES LOWER HERE BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A COMPLETELY DRY
DAY FOR ALL AREAS.

WHAT EVER ACTIVITY DOES FORM THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD END EARLY THIS
EVENING AS SHORT LIVED UPSTREAM RIDGING MAKES FOR A QUIET START TO
WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

LONGER TERM CONCERNS STILL FOCUS ON PARADE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW...AND ASSOCIATED RAIN THREATS. THE GOOD NEWS SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL LIKELY REMAIN LOW TO NIL WITH BETTER CAPE VALUES
REMAINING LOCKED UP WELL SOUTH.

NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL DROP OUT OF CANADA ON SATURDAY INTO NORTHERN
MINNESOTA. AS SPC DAY 2 NOTES...COULD SEE SOME STORMS TO OUR
NORTHWEST BUT WAVE WILL LIKELY NOT IMPACT OUR AREA UNTIL SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. TIMING OF PASSAGE WILL FAVOR MINIMAL SEVERE RISK
FOR US...REFOCUSING TO THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY. DID RAISE RAIN CHANCES
WELL INTO LIKELY RANGE FOR SUNDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY WITH GOOD MODEL
CONSISTENCY.

AFTER THAT...FORECAST BECOMES QUITE MESSY WITH POOR RESOLUTION OF
THESE MINOR SHORT WAVE TROUGHS IN FLOW. 26.00Z GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY SO TRIED TO LOWER RAIN THREAT WITH COORDINATION OF
SURROUNDING OFFICES. OTHERWISE MINOR RAIN CHANCES REMAIN IN FORECAST
BUT THERE WILL BE FAR MORE DRY TIME THAN WET. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
ON TAP AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

LIGHT WINDS AND A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER HAS RESULTED IN SOME BR AND
SCT-BKN IFR STRATO-CU EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH DIURNAL WARMING/
MIXING EXPECT THIS TO LIFT/BURN OFF RATHER QUICKLY BY 13Z TO 1330Z.
GENERALLY GOOD VFR EXPECTED TODAY WITH SCT DIURNAL CUMULUS IN THE
3500-4500 FT RANGE. WEAK SHORTWAVE IN THE FLOW...NEAR THE MN/CAN
BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING...DROPPING SOUTHEAST TODAY COUPLED WITH
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON MAY TRIGGER WIDELY SCT SHRA/TSRA THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE WIDELY SCT COVERAGE...
LEFT VCSH/VCTS MENTION OUT OF BOTH KRST/KLSE TAFS FOR NOW. 18Z TAF
SET MAY NEED TO ADD THIS IF BETTER TIMING/SPATIAL DETAIL OF THE
SMALL SHRA/TSRA CHANCE CAN BE DETERMINED. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN
TONIGHT WITH SUBSIDENCE/LIGHT WINDS/SOME DRYING. MAY NEED A BR
MENTION AGAIN LATE TONIGHT...IN THE 09-12Z TIME-FRAME...BUT SOME OF
THIS WILL DEPEND ON IF ANY SHRA/TSRA OCCUR IN/AROUND THE TAF SITES
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHEA
LONG TERM....SHEA
AVIATION.....RRS



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