Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 180411
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1110 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS REVEALS MID-LEVEL LOW PIN-WHEELING
THROUGH NORTHEAST WI WITH LOBE OF 850-300MB PV-ADVECTION CURRENTLY
MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE I-90/94 CORRIDORS. RADAR RETURNS ACROSS THE
ARX VERY WEAK WITH AN OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWER POPPING UP FROM TIME
TO TIME. RADAR MOSAIC WAS SHOWING A BIT MORE SHOWER COVERAGE ACROSS
NORTHERN WI/U.P. MORE ASSOCIATED WITH INSTABILITY UNDER THE MID-
LEVEL LOW. OTHERWISE...CLOUDY/BRISK CONDITIONS WERE IN PLACE WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE MIDDLE 50S.

FOR TONIGHT...MODELS BRING DOWN ANOTHER MID-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH FOR SHOWER CHANCES.
KEPT SHOWER CHANCES MAINLY CONFINED TO THIS EVENING AND NORTHEAST OF
I-94. PLAN ON CLOUDS HOLDING STRONG THROUGH ACROSS THE AREA AS
OVERNIGHT LOWS DIP INTO THE MIDDLE 30S TO THE MIDDLE 40S.
ALSO...LOOK FOR WINDS TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA SATURDAY...AND PRETTY MUCH
OVERHEAD BY AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE WILL LEAD TO CLEARING SKIES FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DESPITE THE SUNSHINE...IT WILL
BE RATHER COOL WITH HIGHS ONLY TOPPING OFF IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE
MIDDLE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

WAS THINKING ABOUT VALLEY FOG POTENTIAL SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY. HOWEVER...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF THE DECK/~200FT IN THE 10-15KT RANGE
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH. WIND AND INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
SHOULD HOLD OFF FOG THREAT. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE UPPER
20S/AROUND 30 IN CENTRAL WI...TO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 30S ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE ARX FORECAST AREA.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A FAIRLY VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL
TROUGH/SURFACE LOW SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA INTO NORTHERN
WI/U.P. SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. APPEARS BEST FORCING FOR ANY
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH OF I-94. PLAN ON HIGHS
SUNDAY RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 50S ACROSS CENTRAL WI...TO THE
LOWER/MIDDLE 60S ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

MONDAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS. PLAN ON HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

IN THE LONGER TERM //TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY// MODELS ARE TRENDING
TOWARD A DRY PERIOD WITH WARMING AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE CONUS. ECMWF HAS 582DM 500MB HEIGHT
OVER THE ARX FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY WHICH IS ABOUT 2-2.5 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE NORM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS COULD
TRANSLATE TO SOME RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. WENT WITH MODEL CONSENSUS FOR NOW AFTER SURROUNDING OFFICE
COLLABORATION...BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AND POSSIBLY
BUMP TEMPERATURES UPWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS IF SIGNAL REMAINS
CONSISTENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

VFR CLOUDS DID WORK ACROSS THE TAF SITES LATE THIS EVENING...WITH
THE CLEAR SPOT IN THE CLOUD SHIELD SLIDING SOUTH...JUST WEST OF
KRST. MORE 1.5-2.5 KFT CIGS ARE SITUATED JUST NORTH OF THE CLEAR
SLOT...WITH SATELLITE/OBS TRENDS SPREADING THESE BACK ACROSS THE TAF
SITES AROUND 06Z.

RH FIELDS AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FAVOR KEEPING THE LOW SATURATION-MVFR
CIGS IN THROUGH SAT MORNING...WITH SUBSIDENCE POST A DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CLEARING THE SKIES SAT
AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL DECOUPLE WITH SUNDOWN SAT EVENING...AND WITH CLEAR
SKIES...SEE SOME POTENTIAL FOR RIVER VALLEY FOG AT KLSE. A COUPLE
DETRACTORS - SOME HIGH CLOUDS COULD BE SPILLING IN FROM THE WEST
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE
OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH SLIPS SOUTHEAST. ITS NOT A PERFECT SETUP FOR
FG...BUT ENOUGH ELEMENTS THAT IT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. COULD JUST
BE SOME THIN STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPS ON THE RIVER AND STAYS THERE.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION.....RIECK



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