Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 200812

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
312 AM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016

The cloud forecast for today and tonight is fairly complicated. We
will see the mid and high clouds in the southern and eastern
portions of the forecast area moving east out of the area this
morning as the short wave trough currently over southeast
Minnesota and northeast Iowa move east toward the Great Lakes. As
this is occurring, instability clouds associated with the cold air
mass aloft will be spreading southward. The lowest clouds will
likely remain north of Interstate 90 today. These clouds will then
spread south across southern Wisconsin tonight. There may be even
some lake effect clouds in central and eastern Wisconsin.
Additional warm air advection clouds (currently over the eastern
Dakotas) will move east into southeast Minnesota, northeast Iowa,
and western Wisconsin after midnight. Due to these clouds, I am
bit hesitant issuing a Frost Advisory at this time. Even though
the Advisory was not issued, still left a mention of frost in the

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016

On Friday night, a warm front will move east through the area.
Other than some clouds and a shift in the wind direction no other
sensible weather is anticipated with this front. Temperatures will
moderate through the weekend. High temperatures for the weekend will
range from the mid 50s to mid 60s. However there are some hints in
the guidance that the temperatures on Sunday afternoon may be too
cool. This is due an increase in the southwest winds aloft and a 2
to 4C increase in the 925 mb temperatures. Both of these are a
result of the low pressure area moving to our north along the
US/Canadian border.

The next chance of rain looks to be from Tuesday into Wednesday
night as a low pressure area moves east through the region. If the
current southern track verifies, may have to cool the high
temperatures some.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1120 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

Cigs right around 3 kft...currently over northern MN/northwest WI...
continue to sink slowly southeast. Big question is whether or not
they will make KRST/KLSE. NAM12/HRRR/RAP13 850 mb RH fields hold
that moisture to the north, although all sneak 925 mb to the TAF
sites. Looking more likely that a few hour period of mvfr/vfr cigs
for both TAF sites and will add tempo groups to reflect. Better shot
for MVFR at KRST. Winds will stay generally northwest through the




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