Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 221733
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1133 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS ON THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
AND TYPES.

CURRENTLY...BROAD TROUGHING ALOFT IS ENTERING THE REGION FROM THE
WEST AS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING WARMER AIR UP
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI RIVER REGION. A WEST TO EAST
BAND OF PRECIPITATION IS QUICKLY MOVING INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A 700MB TROUGH/WARM FRONT. IN THE WAKE OF THIS
700MB TROUGH THERE IS NOT MUCH OF A FOCUS FOR ANY LIFT...SO
PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN RATHER LIMITED TO JUST SOME SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE.

THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE THE TREND THROUGH THE REST OF THIS MORNING
BEFORE A 500MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY IN ARKANSAS LIFTS NORTH
INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH SHOULD PROVIDE SOME
BETTER FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD...PARTICULARLY IN NORTHEAST IOWA TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.
OVERALL TRENDS IN THE 22.00Z MODELS ARE TO BE SLOWER WITH THE
PRECIPITATION ARRIVING. THIS PRECIPITATION SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS
THE REGION AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...BUT LIKELY LIGHTER FURTHER TO
THE NORTHWEST. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS ANOTHER ISSUE AS MUCH OF THE
THERMAL PROFILE IS HUGGING THE 0C LINE. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY GUIDE THE TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW...WHICH ADDS SOME
EXTRA UNCERTAINTY TO THIS FORECAST. WHETHER THE CHANGE OVER OCCURS
AT 34F OR 32F WILL MAKE A DIFFERENCE IN SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT
IN THE AREAS WHERE SNOW IS THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE...SO ONLY
HAVE ABOUT A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION TONIGHT IN A
BAND ARCING FROM NORTH CENTRAL IOWA UP THROUGH SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA
AND THEN OVER TO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO COME IN
TUESDAY MORNING AS THE MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW AND SURFACE LOW ENTER
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH. AGAIN...THE CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO
SNOW IS GOING TO BE VERY TRICKY AND WILL AFFECT HOW MUCH SNOW
ACCUMULATES. LIQUID TO SNOW RATIOS WILL BE ON THE LOWER
SIDE...9:1...OF CLIMATOLOGY WITH THIS EVENT DUE TO THE WARM
PROFILE LINGERING NEAR 0C. CURRENTLY HAVE THE HIGHEST SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND 3 TO 5 INCHES IN NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN
WHERE COLDER AIR SHOULD KEEP THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE AS SNOW
THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENT. DUE TO THESE ACCUMULATIONS ON TUESDAY
PLAN TO GO WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR TAYLOR COUNTY STARTING
THIS EVENING AND RUNNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON PENDING
COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

BEYOND THIS...WEDNESDAY IS NOW LOOKING TO BE MORE ON THE DRY SIDE
WITH THE SYSTEM CLEARING OUT FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
850MB TEMPERATURES REALLY ARE NOT THAT MUCH COLDER ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM...SO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF A DROP OFF GOING
THROUGH THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY. THE NEXT FEATURE OF NOTE IS WITH
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM/MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT COMES THROUGH ON
FRIDAY WHICH IS NOW TRENDING MUCH FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST...WHICH MEANS LESS OF AN IMPACT FOR OUR REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WAS PULLING SOME DRIER SFC-925MB AIR INTO
THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING...WITH CIGS RISING TO VFR ALONG/EAST OF A
KOLZ-KONA LINE. THIS SHOULD WORK INTO THE KRST AREA WITH AT LEAST
MVFR CIGS FOR A WHILE THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE TRENDED TAFS FOR VFR/MVFR
CIGS THIS AFTERNOON. BROAD AREA OF PRECIP WAS LIFTING NORTH ACROSS
IA LATE THIS MORNING. THIS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE TAF SITES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH MAINLY MVFR/VFR VSBYS IN -RA/BR. COLUMN
COOL ENOUGH FOR SOME -RASN MIX IN THE KRST AREA. BIT OF A LULL IN THE
PRECIP ROUGHLY 03Z-09Z...BUT THE SFC LOW WILL BE APPROACHING WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE/LIFT. CIGS/VSBYS GO BACK TO MFVR/IFR TONIGHT...
WITH ANOTHER BAND OF PRECIP LIFTING NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST MN/
WESTERN WI LATE TONIGHT/TUE MORNING. LIFT AND COOLING ALOFT EXPECTED
TO CHANGE PRECIP IN THIS BAND TO ALL -SN AT KRST AFTER 06Z AND AT
KLSE AFTER 13Z. ACCUMULATIONS IMPACTING AIRPORT OPS EXPECTED AT KRST
LATE TONIGHT/TUE MORNING...WITH PERHAPS A SLUSHY INCH OR TWO AT KLSE
TUE MORNING.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST
     TUESDAY FOR WIZ017.

MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM....HALBACH
AVIATION.....RRS



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