Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 032344
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
544 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

SURFACE MAP SHOWING LOW PRESSURE THAT GAVE THE AREA ANYWHERE FROM A
COUPLE INCHES TO NEAR A FOOT OF SNOW NOW OVER SOUTHEAST ONTARIO
THIS AFTERNOON. STILL SEEING SOME VERY LIGHT DEFORMATION SNOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL LOW EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO EASTERN WI
WITH INTERMITTENT FLURRIES ACROSS OUR AREA. CLOUD COVER LINGERING
ACROSS OUR AREA...BUT LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING
CLEARING WORKING IN ACROSS MN/IA AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. OTHERWISE...FAIRLY BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON IN TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO THE MIDDLE 20S.

LOOKS LIKE A CLEARING TREND FOR THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT PER
SYNTHETIC NSSL-WRF GOES-R IMAGERY...BUT SHORT-LIVED AS MID CLOUD
RACES IN AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING THE
AREA FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA/DAKOTAS. PLAN ON LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.

LOOK FOR THAT MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO ROTATE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. NAM INDICATING FAIRLY STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT
WITH LIGHT SNOW SPREADING IN ACROSS NORTHERN WI BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...ANYWHERE FROM A DUSTING TO AROUND
AN INCH LOOKS LIKELY...MAINLY ALONG/NORTH OF I-94. PLAN ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S.

STILL SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW CHANCES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
GOING INTO EARLY THURSDAY EVENING...OTHERWISE BECOMING PARTLY
CLOUDY WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS/LOWER TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BRINGS ANOTHER MID-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT FOR A CHANCE OF SNOW. RIGHT NOW...LOOKS LIKE
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN AN INCH. LOOK FOR HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE
20S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE TEENS/NEAR 20.

SATURDAY LOOKS QUIET WITH A SLIGHT WARMING AS HIGHS TOP OFF IN THE
UPPER 20S TO THE MIDDLE 30S.

AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF LOW PRESSURE DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT
OF CANADA ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS PUSHING WELL INTO THE 30S. LOOKS LIKE
A CHANCE OF SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX GOING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

WILL HAVE TO WATCH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY CLOSELY ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE DEPARTING LOW/BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN ALONG WITH STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. WILL HAVE A
CHANCE OF FALLING SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS...AND WITH GUSTY WINDS...COULD
SEE SOME BLOWING AROUND OF THE SNOW. OTHERWISE...CHILLING DOWN SOME
ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S.

COLDER/MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS TAP SETS UP FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. PLAN ON HIGHS IN THE TEENS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE/BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 544 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT BOTH TAF AIRFIELDS THROUGH AT LEAST
04.15Z AS A FAST MOVING SURFACE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. THAT SAID...MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE AFTER 04.06Z AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM. THERE
IS A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW AT KLSE/KRST THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT IT APPEARS THE MAJORITY OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW WITH LIKELY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL REMAIN ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94. FOR THAT REASON...WILL KEEP TAFS DRY FOR
NOW. PRIMARY IMPACT WILL BE A LOWERING OF CEILINGS INTO THE MVFR
RANGE BEGINNING AT 04.16Z AT KRST AND 04.18Z AT KLSE. LIGHT
NORTHWEST WIND THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD...SUSTAINED FROM 5 TO 10 KTS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...ROGERS


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