Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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407
FXUS63 KARX 230837
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
337 AM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 337 AM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017

High Impact Weather Potential: Thankfully nothing much into the
early work week period. Ongoing flooding concerns remain, but we
won`t be adding any water to the area through Tuesday.

Finally a much-needed and honestly well-deserved period of quiet
weather across the region as we wrap up the weekend and push into
the early work week. A rather robust shortwave currently drifting
across western Lake Superior continues to push a weak cold front
across the area, earlier responsible for a smattering of evening
showers and storms, but with notably drier air behind that boundary
courtesy of high pressure centered over the western High Plains and
associated northerly flow from Canada. Combo of clearing skies
and light winds/moist soils has led to some mainly river valley
fog developing, which should stick around until 8-9 am before
burning off.

High pressure is expected to work from the northern High Plains
today through the eastern Great Lakes by Tuesday, ensuring a nicer
stretch of cooler and noticeably less humid conditions. Will need
to closely watch cloud trends for a few periods as there have
been hints at times that some stratus and/or stratocumulus will
develop beneath cooler air aloft, and may at times try to get
trapped beneath a sharper nocturnal inversion. Additionally, as
the upper trough drops into the Great Lakes this afternoon, will
likely see a few showers develop into eastern Wisconsin within
better forcing, but can`t rule out a few sprinkles farther west in
some better cumulus buildup. Regardless of how the specifics end
up, the next few days don`t look bad at all by late July
standards.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 337 AM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017

Looking like a brief window for some possible more active weather
toward midweek, but with increasing signals thereafter for elongated
high pressure to dominate much of the north-central CONUS into late
week and next weekend. Strengthening return flow late Tuesday but
especially Tuesday night and Wednesday should draw moisture back
into the region, in advance of the next upper trough and cold front
working in our direction from the northern Plains. Uptick in
associated instability should deliver at least some risk for more
showers and storms.

At the moment at least, the severe risk appears marginal given a
lack of deep layer shear ahead of the front, though PWAT values
cruising back up toward 2 inches don`t exactly make this
forecaster happy, as some risk for heavy rains could result
pending convective evolution. Thankfully, the window for storms
appears narrow, being cut off quickly by Wednesday night onward,
as the aforementioned ridge of high pressure heads south into the
area, providing another stretch of much less humid and cooler
conditions right on through next weekend as we wrap up the month
of July.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1128 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

MVFR BR is possible tonight at the TAF sites. Better chances for
this at KLSE. However, drier air moving in from the northwest will
limit any fog development. VFR conditions return during the day on
Sunday as high pressure builds in. Sct to possibly BKN cumulus are
expected with cloud bases in the 4-5kft range.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 337 AM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017

Very high water continues to funnel down the Volga and Turkey
Rivers this morning, with the crest along the Volga River looking
like it has just passed the town of Volga as of 3 AM. Other high
water continues to work down the Kickapoo, La Crosse, and
Trempealeau Rivers, though thankfully the crest on all 3 of those
rivers has passed all locations.

Looking ahead, a stretch of much-needed dryness will begin today
through much of Tuesday, before our next chance for showers and
storms briefly returns Tuesday evening into Wednesday night. There
is a risk that some locally heavy rains could fall during that
midweek stretch, so something to watch closely the next few days.
Otherwise, another longer stretch of dry weather appears
increasingly likely from Thursday onward into next weekend.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lawrence
LONG TERM...Lawrence
AVIATION...Wetenkamp
HYDROLOGY...Lawrence



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