Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC

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FXUS62 KGSP 182105

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
505 PM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017

Cool high pressure will move off the East Coast by the end of the
week providing a light south to southwest flow of milder air.
Temperatures will warm a little to a few degrees above normal
through the weekend. A strong cold front will arrive next week
bringing precipitation and potentially the coldest air so far this


As of 500 PM EDT Wednesday: No real changes to the near term this
afternoon; only some minor tweaks to hourly temperature trends based
on observations and near-term guidance. Otherwise, little change in
the overall synoptic setup for the next 30+ hours. A dry short wave
trough will cross the area overnight, and may bring a few cirrus.
Otherwise, dry high pressure will shift slightly SW to roughly over
Boone, NC by daybreak Thursday. We should see good radiational
cooling again tonight. But the air mass is beginning to moderate,
and min temps are looking to be at least a deg or two warmer than
last night across CWA. Given the patchy nature of frost this
morning, I think we should be okay with no advisory for tonight. I
will continue to mention some patchy frost in the HWO, as the
coldest spots may see some. Fog will likely develop again across the
mountain valleys and area lakes, due to the cool temps, and may
become dense in spots around daybreak.

On Thursday, the sfc high continues to drift west as an upper ridge
builds over the lower MS Valley. A slow warming trend should
continue with another very quite and pleasant day on tap. Highs back
in the 70s for everyone below 3500 ft.


As of 2:15pm EDT Wednesday:  Fairly quiet weather in store for
Friday and Saturday as mid-level CONUS ridge builds in from the west
Thursday night along with a surface high.  High pressure gradually
moves east Friday and Saturday, but by Saturday evening, next
upstream frontal system will still be well west of the area.
Surface high will keep winds light and northeasterly and will keep
moisture out of the area.  Thursday and Friday will thus be clear of
clouds and precipitation (except for a few wisps of cirrus) with
temperatures warming.  Highs on Friday will again be pushing into
the upper 70s to low 80s in piedmont areas with highs to the mid 70s
in the mountains.  That will be about 10 degrees above normal.  With
dry air, lows Thursday and Friday morning will still reach
seasonally normal levels, however.


As of 205 PM EDT: Anomalously strong upper ridge will be in the
process of progressing off the East Coast and weakening at the start
of the medium range, as the first in a series of strong short wave
troughs emerge from central North America, with this trend expected
to continue through at least the first half of the medium range.
These features are expected to carve out a very deep trough across
the eastern Conus by Days 6/7.

While the period will begin with a continuation of the warm and dry
conditions seen during the short term, deep (and increasingly moist)
southerly flow developing across the area may bring precipitation
chances as early as Sunday night, as guidance depicts increasing
isentropic lift over weakening/retreating surface ridge. Precip
chances then gradually ramp up through Monday into Monday night,
with likely pops apparently warranted.  If precip does fall across
the area during this time, the initially dry surface air may result
in establishment of in situ cold air damming. Global model guidance
also depicts warm sector instability developing Monday afternoon,
along with increasing shear parameters. Thus, organized/potentially
severe storms cannot be ruled out, and this potential could
gradually expand into Monday night/early Tue depending upon how any
surface boundaries evolve.

A consensus of global model guidance depicts the cold front sweeping
across the forecast area on Tuesday, bringing a much cooler and
drier air mass into the western Carolinas and northeast GA for the
end of the medium range. Post-frontal NW flow could result in shower
chances continuing across the mountains through at least early Wed.
Snow showers will be possible, at least in the higher elevations,
although the mention of snow has been tempered for the time being.
Otherwise, temps are forecast to be as much as 10 degrees below
climo by the middle of next week.


At KCLT and Elsewhere: No changes to the KCLT TAF for the 21z
AMD; winds are generally trending ENE as per the original 21z line
in the TAF. Otherwise, the center of cool, dry high pressure will
drift from eastern VA to roughly over extreme NW NC by daybreak
Thursday. This will keep a light wind generally out of the N to ENE
thru most of the period. Winds should calm or LGT/VRB overnight with
only a few wisps of cirrus from time to time. With temps still
fairly cool, but perhaps not quite as cool as last night, still
expect fog to develop in the mountain valleys and around the lakes.
So I went close to last night`s timing of restrictions at KAVL and
KHKY. The rest of the sites should stay VFR.

Outlook: Seasonably cool and overall VFR conditions will persist
through the work week with the only possible exceptions being
mtn valley fog/stratus restrictions in the morning. Moisture will
begin to return to the area Saturday in advance of a cold front
early next week.

Confidence Table...

            21-03z        03-09Z        09-15Z        15-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     Low   21%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High  94%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High  94%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:




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