Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC

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000
FXUS62 KGSP 061727
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1227 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND
WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO
DEVELOP NEAR THE GULF COAST AND LIFT THROUGH OUR AREA NEXT
WEEK...WITH MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WEATHER IN BETWEEN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM...SOME PESKY STRATOCU LINGERING ACRS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN MTNS AND THE UPPER SAVANNAH VALLEY HEADING INTO THIS AFTN.
THE REST OF THE AREA HAS CLEARED OUT...EXCEPT A FEW LINGERING PUFFS
OF CU IN UNION COUNTY NC. TWEAKED SKY COVER TO MATCH UP WITH LATEST
VIS SAT AND OBS. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED TO THE
TEMPS/POP/WX.

AS OF 930 AM UPDATE...DRY HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH UNDER CONFLUENT MID-UPR FLOW TODAY. A STRATUS DECK IS SLOWLY
ERODING ACRS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER SAVANNAH VALLEY AND LOWER
PIEDMONT. GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLOW...AS STRONG
LLVL INVERSION WILL LIMIT MIXING OF DRIER AIR ALOFT. HOWEVER...MOST
OF THE AREA SHUD SEE SUNNY SKIES. DESPITE THIS...LLVL THICKNESSES
SUPPORT TEMPS ABOUT 15 DEG BELOW NORMAL. NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED
WITH THIS UPDATE.

6 AM UPDATE...PRE-DAWN TWEAKS WERE MADE TO EXPAND CLEARING LINE WHICH
HAS MOVED INTO THE NORTHERN UPSTATE. VERY WEAK RETURNS NOTED ACRS
NE GA AND FAR WESTERN UPSTATE HAVE GIVEN RISE TO FLURRY CHANCES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE SOUTHWARD OF ADVECTION OF LLVL DRY AIR IS
APPARENT ON THE FOG IR SATELLITE LOOPS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE
CLEARING LINE PRETTY CLOSE TO THE SC/NC STATE LINE. AS THE EARLY
MORNING WEARS ON...FURTHER SOUTHWARD EROSION OF LINGERING LOW CLOUDS
WILL OCCUR. DESPITE SUNSHINE TODAY...AND THE WEAKENING OF THE CHILLY
LLVL RIDGE AXIS...MAX TEMPERATURES ARE SLATED TO BE MORE THE 15 DEG F
COOLER THAN THE EARLY MARCH CLIMO. DEEP LAYERED DRY AIR LINGERS ATOP
THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT UNDER A NONDESCRIPT WESTERLY CONFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT. SATURDAY MORNING MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A
CATEGORY OR TWO BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRI...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST THRU THE WEEKEND. SKIES WILL BE VIRTUALLY CLEAR TO START
THE PERIOD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS THE MTNS SUN MRNG
WHICH COULD BRING A LITTLE CLOUD COVER BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE
ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR PRECIP. MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER
SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING GULF FRONTAL WAVE...WITH POPS RAMPING
UP ACCORDINGLY. THE AIRMASS WILL MODIFY WITH TIME...AND MAX TEMPS
SUNDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRI...BROADLY CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW IS SEEN OVER THE
CENTRAL-ERN CONUS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE NRN STREAM
REMAINS ACTIVE...THOUGH THE EMBEDDED LOWS REMAIN CENTERED NORTH OF
THE CANADIAN BORDER. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE WILL
SWING ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY MON. THIS PROVIDES MINIMAL FORCING
FROM CAA BUT IT SEEMS TO PRODUCE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE THAT GFS/EC BOTH
DEVELOP QPF ALONG IT. HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
WHICH MAY BE OF GREATER CONSEQUENCE...MAKING WAY FOR WARM ADVECTION
FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM. A REMNANT UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WILL MOVE EAST WITHIN THE SRN STREAM...LEADING TO A RATHER DEEP
TROUGH EXTENDING INTO MEXICO BY EARLY TUE. AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH
SUBSEQUENTLY DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN GULF COAST...LIFTING A WARM FRONT
NWD INTO THE CAROLINAS. BOTH GFS/EC DEPICT THE FRONT LANGUISHING OVER
THE GULF STATES AND CAROLINAS THRU MIDWEEK...THOUGH THE EC KEEPS IT
FURTHER N AND IS ACCORDINGLY WETTER FOR THE CWFA. WITH THE MEXICAN
TROUGH BASICALLY BLOCKING THE SRN STREAM...BOTH MODELS SHOW ANOTHER
SFC WAVE LIFTING NWD OVER THE WRN GULF REGION THU OR EARLY FRI.
ALLOWED POPS TO TREND UPWARD ON DAY 7 AS A RESULT. MAX TEMPS WILL BE
NEAR CLIMO THRU THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR TUE BEING A FEW DEGREES
COOLER DUE TO CLOUDS/PRECIP. MINS WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...JUST A WIND FCST THIS PERIOD AS SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR THRU SATURDAY MORNING. WIND WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF
THE N/NE...THEN BECOME MORE VARIABLE OR CALM THIS EVENING.

ELSEWHERE...SENSIBLE WX JUST LIMITED TO KAND THRU THIS AFTN WHERE
VFR LVL STRATOCU LINGERS. OTHERWISE...VFR/CLEAR WITH WINDS
PROGRESSIVELY LIGHTENING ACRS THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...RAIN CHANCES
POSSIBLY RETURNING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z        07-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   77%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...ARK/CSH
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...ARK



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