Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC

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000
FXUS62 KGSP 281438
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1038 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
000
TTAA00 KCAE 280744

WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY. THEN A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEK AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 1030 AM EDT TUESDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDED FORM THE BAHAMAS
NORTH ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...WHILE AN UPPER LOW WAS CENTERED
OVER MN...WITH A TROUGH  SW TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A SURFACE WARM
FRONT WAS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...AND A COLD FRONT
EXTENDED FROM MI SW TO TX. CLOUDS COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT WAS ARRIVING AT SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FROM THE WEST.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT REMAINED WELL TO THE WEST
OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY.

MAINLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE FORM THE WEST TODAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER RIDGE. WINDS WILL COME UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH MODEST GUSTS
DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING.

TONIGHT...NEAR TERM MODELS AGREE THAT A BAND OF PRE FRONTAL SHOWERS
WILL REACH THE NC/TN LINE BETWEEN 9-12Z. I WILL INCREASE LATE NIGHT
POPS TO HIGH CHC TO LIKELY ALONG THE WEST SLOPES OF THE
APPALACHIANS. BY SUNRISE...AREAS EAST OF THE MTNS SHOULD REMAIN DRY
WITH 0.10 TO 0.40 POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME WESTERN NC. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM AROUND 50 ACROSS THE MTN
VALLEYS TO U50 EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
000
TTAA00 KCAE 280719

AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF A
COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED BAND OF SHWRS CROSSING THE CWFA FROM NW TO
SE DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. IF ANYTHING...THEY/VE TRENDED A BIT
FASTER AND DRIER WITH THE FRONT...AS MOISTURE STRUGGLES TO CROSS THE
MTNS. I HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE TN BORDER (LIKELY) DURING
THE MORNING HOURS...THEN A CHC POP FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST FROM
MIDDAY THRU THE AFTN. POPS CUT OFF RAPIDLY FROM NW TO SE LATE AFTN
THRU THE EVENING HOURS. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT. AS FOR THUNDER...THE
NAM AND GFS STILL SHOW A LITTLE SBCAPE ACRS THE GA AND SC PIEDMONT.
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION CHC THUNDER MAINLY ALONG AND SE OF I-85.
NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING STRONG. MAX TEMPS ARE A LITTLE TRICKY WITH
THE FROPA. BASED ON THE FASTER TIMING...I KNOCKED MAX TEMPS DOWN A
DEG OR TWO ALONG THE SE FRINGE. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE
MTNS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL I-85 AND SE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU THURSDAY NIGHT...WEAK BUT DRY SFC HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...AS UPPER TROF LINGERS ACRS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. SKIES SHUD CLEAR OUT AND WINDS BECOME
LIGHT. NEAR NORMAL MIN TEMPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN ABOUT 5 DEG
BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS THURSDAY AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
000
TTAA00 KCAE 280742

AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...MODELS STILL SHOWING A VERY ENERGETIC
SHORTWAVE TROF DIVING OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE REGION INTO THE
GREAT LAKES...CARVING OUT A DEEP TROF ACRS THE EASTERN STATES FRIDAY
THRU SATURDAY. AT THE SFC...A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE
GREAT LAKES...THEN MERGE WITH AN ATLANTIC LOW ACRS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND ECWMF HAVE A BRIEF SHOT OF NW FLOW
MOISTURE AS THE CLIPPER TRACKS TO OUR NORTH. THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON WILL FOLLOW...WITH 850 MB TEMPS PLUMMETING TO -2 TO -6C ACRS
THE CWFA BY 18Z SATURDAY. THIS SHUD RESULT IN BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS ACRS THE MTNS FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY AFTN...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLD TO SCATTER RA/SN SHOWERS. ANY SNOW ACCUM SHUD BE VERY
LIGHT AND SPOTTY. AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUB-ADVISORY LEVEL.
AN ADVECTIVE FREEZE WILL BE LIKELY ABOVE 3500 FT...WHICH IS ALSO THE
END OF OUR FREEZE PROGRAM FOR THE FALL IN THE MTNS. OUTSIDE THE
MTNS...TEMPS ARE FCST TO DROP INTO THE 30S...WITH FROSTY TEMPS...BUT
NOT GOOD FROST CONDITIONS (WIND/MIXING AND LOW DEWPTS).

FRIDAY/S HIGHS LOOK SIMILAR TO THURSDAY (ABOUT 5 DEG BELOW
NORMAL)...BUT MUCH COOLER FOR SATURDAY (ABOUT 10-15 DEG BELOW
NORMAL).

SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT...EVEN THO THE SFC HIGH
IS STILL BUILDING IN...AND CAA MAY KEEP THINGS MIXED. THE LATEST WPC
FCST WAS BLENDED IN...AND RESULTS IN SOLID FREEZE FOR THE MTNS...AND
29-32 DEG FOR THE NC PIEDMONT. THE UPSTATE AND NE GA LOOK TO BE IN
THE MID-UPR 30S. AGAIN...GOOD FROST TEMPS...BUT DIFFICULT TO SAY HOW
MUCH FROST WILL FORM WITH DEWPTS DROPPING INTO THE LWR-MID 20S.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE LARGE CONTINENTAL HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE
REGION...WITH DRY WX AND GRADUAL REBOUNDING IN TEMPS...BUT STILL
WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...AS OF 645 AM...LATEST 11U-3.9U SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATED
A STRATUS DECK EXPANDING ACROSS THE SC COASTAL PLAIN AND MIDLANDS.
THE 6Z NAM12 INDICATES THAT THE STRATUS DECK SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN
EAST THE TERMINAL THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE SFC CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS AND LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATED THAT THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS MAY RUN ALONG A LINE FROM GREENWOOD TO
UNION...NC. I WILL FORECAST THAT CLT WILL REMAIN VFR THIS MORNING.
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL MID DAY...THEN WINDS SHOULD
SHIFT FROM THE SSW AND INCREASE TO AROUND 8 KTS. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NW LATE TONIGHT...MODELS KEEP QPF TO THE WEST
THROUGH 12Z WEDS.

ELSEWHERE...ALL TERMINALS SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO CLT.
DAYLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIR WITH SSW WINDS. TONIGHT...A
BAND OF SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE TN BORDER COUNTIES DURING
THE PRE DAWN HOURS. ISO SHRAS MAY OCCUR NEAR THE KAVL TERMINALS
BEFORE 12Z...COVERAGE TOO LIMITED TO MENTION IN THE TAF. KAVL IS
EXPECTED TO SEE FROPA/WIND SHIFT AROUND 10Z.

OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
WHICH COULD BRING SOME BRIEF RESTRICTIONS WITH SHOWERS. HIGH
PRESSURE AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE PLANNING FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR CHANGES TO
MIXING HEIGHTS BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS AND FORECAST
TEMPERATURES. SMOKE MANAGEMENT PARAMETERS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR TUESDAY OCT 28...
GSP  85      1991
CLT  87      1940
AVL  81      1940

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...JAT/NED
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...NED
FIRE WEATHER...JAT
CLIMATE...



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