


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
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857 FXUS62 KGSP 010606 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 206 AM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front approaches the area today with a chance for stronger thunderstorms. Behind the front, drier weather returns for the Independence Day holiday weekend. Temperatures remain typical for the summertime season through the beginning of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 200 am: Some showers linger this morning across the mountains...especially along the TN/NC border. These are expected to continue steadily diminishing through daybreak. Dissipating convective debris should allow some mountain valley fog with patchy fog elsewhere, particularly where heavy rain fell late yesterday. Lows near normal mountains and a few degrees above normal elsewhere. The stagnant pattern finally begins breaking down later today as a weak upper trough and surface cold front move into the area from the west. This will keep high PW values across the area and bring an uptick in bulk shear. The increased clouds and lower thickness values will help put highs a little below normal for the mountains and near normal elsewhere. This will keep instability slightly lower, but still reaching at least the moderate range. Deeper moisture is expected as well limiting DCAPE and sfc delta theta-e values. But given the increased forcing, overall severe thunderstorm potential is higher as some weak organization may develop. Isolated flood threat remains as well as storm coverage should be higher despite faster cell movement. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 100 PM Monday: An upper trough axis will cross the spine of the Appalachians Tuesday night and set up roughly along the East Coast Wednesday thru Thursday as the upper flow pattern amplifies. This should push a cold front thru the forecast area on Wednesday. Scattered diurnal convection is expected, with better coverage to our southeast. Temps will be near climo. The front pushes further southeast of the area Thursday, resulting in drier conditions. Only very isolated showers or storms expected, mainly in the mountains, as heights rise aloft and limit instability. Temps Thursday will be a category or so warmer with less cloud cover than Wednesday. Lows will be near climo. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 130 PM Monday: Relative dry weather is expected for the Fourth of July holiday weekend (dry for early July). An upper ridge will slowly build in from the Midwest to the Ohio Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic. This will help suppress convection and keep mid-level lapse rates weak. An axis of sfc high pressure will extend from the Mid-Atlantic west to the Mid-MS valley, while a front stalls out over FL and the Gulf. Below-climo PoPs is in the forecast for Friday and Saturday. PoPs trend toward climo Sunday, but the latest guidance has trended drier. This is due to the uncertainty on a tropical low development along the stalled front in the eastern Gulf. The 12z GFS has come in more in line with the ECMWF on keeping any disturbance shunted south. Regardless of what happens in the Gulf, PoPs should begin to ramp up to more typical mid-summer levels, as a northern stream trough begins to dig into the Upper Midwest and the upper ridge shifts east. Temps will be close to or slightly above normal thru the period. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: Spotty showers are streaming across the mountains and foothills early this morning, but these are very unlikely to make a direct hit on any TAF site. The primary immediate concern is therefore the potential for some fog and/or low stratus toward daybreak in the continued very moist conditions. Similar to Monday morning, expect a brief period of IFR/LIFR conditions at KHKY and KAVL centered around 12Z...which is handled with tempos. There is also some hint from the latest guidance of IFR stratus potential in the KCLT area later this morning, and this seems plausible enough to advertise a tempo for SCT009 there between 11 and 13Z. Otherwise, convection is expected to develop across the mountains by early afternoon...with some isolated activity possible in other areas during that time. Convection will move off the high terrain into the Piedmont/foothills from mid-afternoon into the evening. Additional convection will mover over the area during the evening in advance of a cold front. Prob30s for TSRA are warranted at all sites this afternoon...with a transition to categorical -SHRA and VCTS this evening. SW winds of 5-10 kts are expected through much of the period. Can`t rule out some gusts of 15-20 kts across the Piedmont during the afternoon. Outlook: Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected again Wednesday afternoon/evening. Drier air moving in Thursday is expected to inhibit diurnal convection into the weekend, with at most isolated activity expected each day. Fog and/or low stratus possible each morning in the usual mountain valleys, as well as near lakes and rivers, and where significant rain fell the day before. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARK/CP NEAR TERM...JDL/RWH/Wimberley SHORT TERM...ARK LONG TERM...ARK AVIATION...JDL