Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC

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000
FXUS62 KGSP 280719
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
319 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY
AND WILL SETTLE OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON SUNDAY. A LOW PRESSURE CLIPPER
SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR MIDWEEK.
MOISTURE WILL RETURN MID TO LATE WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING
COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT SATURDAY...AMPLIFIED SYNOPTIC RIDGE/TROF PATTERN
CONTINUES TO PREVAIL IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS WHILE A RIDGE OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTH OUT OF ONTARIO TOWARDS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY REGION.  AS THE BASE OF A FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROF
ADVECTS EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST...NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPS.  LATEST NAM12 ALONG WITH
CAM GUID FAVORS ENOUGH LLV MOISTURE CONTENT TO SUPPORT UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG THE TN LINE THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z...PERHAPS A FEW HOURS
BEYOND.  THEREFORE THE FCST FEATURES SLOWLY DECREASING LIKELY/CHANCE
LEVEL POPS ALONG THE BORDER ZONES WITH ALL POPS REMOVED NLT 15Z THIS
MORNING.  STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMS OUT OF THIS
EVENT...THEREFORE NO PRODUCTS ARE PLANNED.

FOR THE REST OF THE DAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT....EXPECTING SKIES TO SCT
OUT ACROSS THE REGION YIELDING MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON.  LOCATIONS ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPS COULD SEE A DELAY
IN THE ARRIVAL OF SUNSHINE DUE TO THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS LEADING TO RESIDUAL LOW CLOUDS THROUGH MORNING.  RH VALUES
WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S THIS AFTERNOON
WITH MIXING...HOWEVER FUEL MOISTURES DO NOT SUPPORT ANY FIRE DANGER
STATEMENTS.  AS CAA REGIME CONTINUES...NOT EXPECTING TEMPERATURES
TO COME ANYWHERE CLOSE TO NORMAL TODAY AS MOST MTN SITES STRUGGLE TO
TOP THE FREEZING MARK FOR HIGHS.  OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS...MOST SITES
WILL REACH INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 85
WHILE THE REMAINING LOCATIONS TO THE SOUTH REACH INTO THE LOWER
50S.  THUS...A CLEAR YET COOL...WINTER LIKE...SPRING DAY.  CURRENT
FREEZE WARNING WILL GO UNCHANGED...WITH THE PREVIOUS WATCH FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT BEING UPGRADED TO A WARNING.  LATEST MAV/MET...AND
NEARLY ALL RAW GUID FAVORS COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN PREVIOUSLY
FCST AMIDST GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.  THEREFORE THE
LATEST FCST FEATURES LOWS BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FCST AREA
ON SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 215 AM SATURDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THINKING FOR THE SHORT
RANGE. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD EASTWARD ON SUNDAY...WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS CROSSING THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WILL TAKE HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY THE END OF THE DAY. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR JANUARY ON SUNDAY. A SHORT WAVE DIGGING
ACROSS THE GT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT DOWN FROM
THE NW. A TRAILING WAVE WILL HELP TO PUSH THAT BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
FCST AREA ON MONDAY MORNING. PRECIP CHANCES RAMP UP SUNDAY EVENING
ALONG THE TN BORDER AND THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE
MTNS/FOOTHILLS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...EVENTUALLY SPILLING E OF THE MTNS
MONDAY MORNING. FORTUNATELY...PARTIAL THICKNESS/FCST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT PRECIP WILL BE ALL LIQUID. MIN TEMPS EARLY MONDAY
MORNING SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...AND THE MODEL TREND ON THIS
WAS UP A DEGREE FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST. THE FORCING/DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL BE A FAIRLY QUICK SHOT THOUGH...AND BY MIDDAY MONDAY THE FRONT
SHOULD ALREADY BE S OF THE FCST AREA. THAT WILL ALLOW PRECIP CHANCES
TO END BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND FOR TEMPS TO REBOUND BY TEN TO
FIFTEEN DEGREES FOR HIGHS. THINK THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL REMAIN FAR
ENOUGH TO THE WEST TO NOT BE A PROBLEM UNTIL THE MEDIUM RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...THE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH
ITS DEPICTION OF A SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE UNDERCUTTING THE NRN STREAM
RIDGE ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE
WAVE WILL SUPPORT A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS STEADILY INCREASING FROM
THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK WARM FRONTAL FEATURE LIFTS NWD. THE
NEW GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH DROPPING A SFC COLD FRONT
DOWN FROM THE NW LATER IN THE WEEK...WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE BEING THURSDAY NIGHT. DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THE
MEDIUM RANGE...OTHER THAN TO RAISE THE POP INTO THE CHANCE RANGE
EVERYWHERE THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD BE BACK ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AT THE SFC BENEATH
CONTINUED NW FLOW ALOFT.  INITIALIZED ALL TAFS WITH MID LEVEL VFR
CIGS WITH EROSION EXPECTED AFTER A FEW HOURS LEADING TO PREVAILING
HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AT KAVL WHERE UPSTREAM NW
FLOW INDUCED SHSN WILL LEAD TO LINGERING LOW CLOUDS.  THUS...ADDED A
LOW CONFIDENCE TEMPO TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY STRAY SHSN OR MVFR CIGS THAT
ADVECT UP THE VALLEY TOWARDS KAVL.  OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL DOMINATE THE TAF SITES ON SATURDAY BENEATH GUSTY NW WINDS.

OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING FOR MONDAY.  CIG/VISB RESTRICTIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS FROPA ON MONDAY AT ALL SITES...ESPECIALLY FOR
MID/LATE MORNING AT KAVL.  BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REGAINS
CONTROL FOR TUESDAY...AHEAD AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND RESULTANT
MOISTURE RETURN ON WEDNESDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 28TH...

GSP  26  1982
CLT  25  1982
AVL  11  1887

RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 29TH...

GSP  26  1899
CLT  26  2013
AVL  19  1982

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR GAZ010-017.
NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     NCZ035>037-048-051>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-502-
     504-506>510.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR NCZ035>037-048-051>053-
     056>059-062>065-068>070-502-504-506>510.
SC...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     SCZ001>014-019.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR SCZ001>003.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...CDG
CLIMATE...


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