Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC

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629
FXUS62 KGSP 231445
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1045 AM EDT TUE AUG 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will persist over the region through midweek allowing
temperatures to climb back above normal. Another weak cold front will
approach the Western Carolinas from the northwest toward the end of
the work week, with high pressure building back to our north in the
front`s wake.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1030 AM...A large area of upper-level high pressure will
persist across the Deep South today, keeping the area weather quiet.
At the surface, high pressure will drift east from the central
Appalachians to the Mid-Atlantic coast by late tonight. Low-level
easterly flow will remain weak, but may provide enough upslope
forcing to keep a fair amount of high-based stratocumulus around
for much of the day and again tonight. Still expect partly to
mostly sunny skies for most of the area today with temps at or a
category below normal.

The NAM continues to be aggressive in breaking the cap over
the wrn third of the CWFA, developing scattered showers/tstms
this aftn. CAMs also develop some shallow convection across
the area (mainly the same area as the NAM). The cap appears
to be well-defined on prog profiles and it would seem hard to
break. However, it is weaker to our south and west, and furthermore
dewpts are expected to remain higher there. We will retain an
isolated TSRA mention over NE GA and the immediate vicinity;
note one brief shower has already occurred over Madison Co, GA
(just west of Elbert Co), and satellite suggests other updrafts
are going up nearby.

Lows tonight will be near normal under party cloudy skies.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 310 AM EDT Tuesday...the short term fcst picks up at 12Z on
Wednesday with mid to upper level ridging building over the SE
region and persisting well into the medium range. At the sfc,
high pressure will be slowly moving off the eastern seaboard on
Wednesday and Thursday keeping a surface wedge over the CWFA. A
fairly broad area of deeper, pre-frontal moisture will pass to
our north during the period. Some of the deeper moisture could
spread over extreme Western NC, however the prevailing wedge pattern
should prevent it from spreading farther east. As for the sensible
wx, most of the convective activity should be limited to the higher
terrain zones during the afternoon and early evening hours. Temps
will start out around climatology and warm thru the period with
highs on Friday about a category above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 305 AM EDT Tuesday...the medium range fcst picks up at 12Z
on Friday with broad upper ridging in place over the SE region.
The ridge is expected to remain largely in place thru day 7 with
some flattening likely by the end of the period. At the sfc, a
weak and mostly dry cold front will be moving thru the CWFA early
Friday with another round of high pressure in its wake. The center
of the high will move over the Great Lakes late Fri/early Sat
bringing bndy layer winds around to north and then northeast. The
high eventually lifts north of New England early next week while
another low develops over the Northern Plains. There are some notable
differences between the long range models with the 12Z ECMWF still
developing a tropical low over the Bahamas and moving it over
Southern Florida early next week while the GFS does not develop
a low. As for the sensible fcst, no major changes were needed with
below climo POPs for the period and temps about a category above
normal for late August.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
15z KCLT update: Cloud bases should remain between 5-7 kft thru
sunset; based on recent obs most bases are likely already closer to
7 kft. Winds are ENE presently, and low-level profiles suggest they
will remain that way into midday. While they may briefly go ESE,
guidance expects they will back as pressure over the Mid-Atlantic
rises slightly.

Otherwise: VFR conditions expected through the period, except
for possible mountain valley fog and stratus again tonight.
As high pressure slides east across the Mid-Atlantic today, light
easterly upslope low-level flow will continue, supporting patches
of stratocumulus for most of the period, with occasional CIGS
possible in the 4000-6000 ft range. Winds will be light thru the
period, favoring a NE direction through the morning, then veering
to more ESE during the afternoon. Some of the guidance turns the
winds back to NE at KCLT and the Upstate sites early evening. But
most keep it ESE at KCLT overnight.

Outlook: The dry air will remain in place across the area resulting
in fair weather through at least mid-week.

Confidence Table...

            14-20Z        20-02Z        02-08Z        08-12Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High  98%     High 100%     High 100%     High  83%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...ARK/Wimberley
SHORT TERM...JPT
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...ARK/Wimberley



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