000
FXUS62 KGSP 101749
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
149 PM EDT MON MAR 10 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARM HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA FROM THE WEST BY WEDNESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES
TURNING COLDER LATE WEEK FOLLOWING AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM...LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES STILL SHOW SOME
PATCHES OF STRATUS OVER THE EXTREME WESTERN NC AND NE GA MTNS.
DEWPT TEMPS REMAIN COOLER THAN PREVIOUS FCST ANTICIPATED SO I BUMPED
THEM DOWN A FEW DEGREES FOR THE UPDATE. OTHER THAN THAT...SKIES WILL
BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPS STILL ON TRACK TO BE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY/MID MARCH WITH VALUES REACHING THE MID
70S FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MID TO UPPER 60S FOR THE MTS. WINDS
SHOULD PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME MORE SWLY AS A LEE TROF
DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM MONDAY...AN ACTIVE SHORT RANGE PERIOD IS SHAPING UP. A
SRN STREAM UPPER LOW MOVES EAST TOWARD THE AREA ALONG THE GULF COAST
TUE AND TUE NITE DAMPENING ALONG THE WAY. THE WAVE THEN MOVES OFF
SHORE WED AS A STRONG NRN STREAM SHORT WAVE DROPS INTO THE OH AND TN
VALLEYS. THIS SHORT WAVE PUSHES EAST TO THE COAST WED NITE AS A
TRAILING CHANNELED SHORT WAVE DROPS INTO THE DEVELOPING EAST COAST
TROF AND MOVES INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS.

AT THE SFC...A GULF LOW MOVES EAST TOWARD THE AREA TUE AND TUE NITE
AS A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MOVE MOVE INTO THE OH AND TN
VALLEYS. TUE SHUD BE DRY WITH CONTINUED VERY WARM HIGHS AROUND 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...BUT AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW RECORD LEVELS.
SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA TUE NITE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LOWS
WILL WARM SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE SWLY FLOW...15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE CWFA WED BRINGING NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCT THUNDERSTORMS. GUIDANCE SHOWS NOT ONLY
INCREASING MUCAPE ON WED...BUT SURFACE BASED CAPE ALSO. MODERATE
SHEAR AND HELICITY DEVELOP DURING THE DAY AS WELL. HOWEVER...DO NOT
CURRENTLY EXPECT ANY SEVERE STORMS GIVEN THE WEAK INSTABILITY AND
ONLY MODERATE SHEAR. SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AND
BECOME GUSTY...BUT REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL. DO NOT CURRENTLY
EXPECT ANY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EITHER. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT
ISOLATED FLOODING GIVEN THE RELATIVELY MOIST ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS
AND POTENTIALLY BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS COOL
WED BUT REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFF SHORE WED NITE TAKING THE BULK OF THE
PRECIP WITH IT. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING NW FLOW
PRECIP ACROSS THE NC MTNS THRU THE NITE. GIVEN THE GOOD CAA THAT
DEVELOPS BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPS WILL QUICKLY FALL CHANGING THE
RAIN TO SNOW. RIGHT NOW...IT APPEARS THAT THE QPF AND SHORT DURATION
WILL LEAD TO LESS THAN ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW OVER THE TN BORDER
COUNTIES. IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW...WINDS WILL INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE AREA...EVEN OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS. GUSTS
COULD REACH ADVISORY LEVEL ACROSS THE MTNS...BUT SHOULD REMAIN JUST
BELOW ELSEHWERE. LOWS WILL DROP SIGNIFICANTLY AS WELL...ENDING UP 5
TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM EDT MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD BEGINS AT 12Z
THURSDAY WITH A DEEP BUT RATHER SKINNY TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE WESTERN THREE FOURTHS OF
THE NATION. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL END BY LATE THURSDAY AS THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS HIGH WILL
BE CENTERED OVER SC AROUND 12Z FRIDAY...THEREFORE CALM TO LIGHT WIND
AROUND THAT TIME. THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER FOR OUR REGION WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE WET FOR
THE SE STATES THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND THE GFS IS NOW QUITE DIFFERENT
THAN THE 12Z SUNDAY ECMWF. THE GFS SPREADS MOISTURE UP FROM THE GULF
AND TO THE SOUTH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTING SATURDAY EVENING AND
CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS LATEST GFS DIGS A DEEP TROUGH
OVER SE TEXAS LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WHERE A 500MB LOW GETS
CUT OFF. THIS WOULD OF COURSE DELAY THE LAST PUSH OF ENERGY UNTIL
PERHAPS TUESDAY...WHILE THE OLD ECMWF TAKES THE LOW OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST LATE MONDAY.  SINCE THIS MAJOR DIFFERENCE IN MODELS SPANS TIME
WELL AFTER THE END OF THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD...THIS ISSUE WILL
BE WATCHED IN THE UPCOMING FORECAST SHIFTS. CURRENTLY...THE MAX TIME
OF RAINFALL IS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE BRAND NEW ECMWF IS PRESENTING A
MUCH MORE GFS LIKE SOLUTION WITH THE DIGGING TROUGH OVER TEXAS
TOWARD PERHAPS A CUT OFF LOW. WITH BOTH MODELS SHOWING THIS SLOWER
AND MORE PROLONGED PRECIP OUTCOME...EXPECT THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK TO BE CLOUDY AND WET.

TEMPERATURES START OFF WELL BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY THEN RECOVERING
NICELY ON FRIDAY. HIGHS IN THE 50S MTNS AND 60S FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE PERSISTENT SW LOW LEVEL FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z TAF
PERIOD. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN PREDOMINATELY CLEAR WITH A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS OVER THE NC MTS AND FOOTHILLS. AT THE SFC...A LEE TROF WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING WINDS TO
MAINTAIN A NWLY DIRECTION AT KAVL AND A BIT MORE OF A SWLY COMPONENT
ELSEWHERE. DEEPER LAYER MIXING WILL LIKELY KEEP THE WINDS GUSTY IN
THE 20KT RANGE AT KAVL FOR THE NEXT 4 TO 6 HRS. OTHERWISE...I DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY OTHER AVIATION CONCERNS.

OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRES WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY. RAIN AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD BACK INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING
FOR LATE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...JPT
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...JPT