


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
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305 FXUS62 KGSP 300136 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 936 PM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A typical summer pattern continues Monday with seasonable temperatures and chances for afternoon and early evening thunderstorms. A cold front approaches the area on Tuesday bringing greater coverage of thunderstorms. Drier weather looks to return for the holiday weekend behind the front. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 930 PM: Main changes this update were to touch up PoP trends over the next few hrs, mostly based on current radar mosaic, with CAMs doing poorly as usual with summertime pop-up storms. Swirl seen on water vapor imagery associated with shortwave trough, more or less stationary to our south. Given that providing weak lift and reinforcing S to SE flow in low levels, think best chance for redevelopment this evening will be generally outside the mountains, in areas ahead of remaining outflow boundaries between I-40 and US 74 in the NC Piedmont and in the Savannah River Valley. A stray mountain shower however is possible in the next hr or two. Chances going below slight-chance around midnight. Expect clearing skies and light winds overnight. Mountain valley fog is likely with patchy fog elsewhere, especially near bodies of water or locations that had heavier rainfall. At this update, saw fit to include a mention of fog near Clemson and Liberty where heavy showers moved in late in the day, and fog is climatologically more favored. Elsewhere confidence too low to put in a mention at this time. Lows near normal mountains and a few degrees above normal elsewhere. Monday looks to be a near carbon copy with good coverage of convection developing across the mountains around noon and scattered convection elsewhere. Expect a near carbon copy with the severe downburst and heavy rain potential with a very unstable air mass, light bulk shear, moderate DCAPE, and high PW values. Highs across the mountains will be near normal and a few degrees above normal elsewhere. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 1225 PM Sunday: A northern stream trough will swing across the Great Lakes region and into New England on Tuesday while another upper low associated with a Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough drifts along the southeast coast. Broad Bermuda ridge will also extend into the Coastal Plain which will further promote deep-layer southwest flow across the region. Plentiful deep moisture will be present within this regime with a surface cold front approaching the area from the northwest within the trough axis. Moisture pooling ahead of the frontal boundary in concert with weak, but non-zero, forcing will promote numerous to widespread mainly diurnal thunderstorms across the area on Tuesday. Weak troughing and the nearby position of the front may even support several storms continuing into the overnight beyond the traditional diurnal pattern. Forecast soundings reveal traditional summer profiles in the southeast with very tall/skinny CAPE and a lack of drier air. The result is poor lapse rates, weak DCAPE and a lower surface delta ThetaE. Clusters of storms and/or linear segments will likely organize along composite cold pools and a couple strong to isolated severe storms cannot be ruled out with the main threat being isolated wet microbursts. The boundary itself slowly drops into the area Tuesday night into Wednesday with another round of diurnal showers and storms Wednesday afternoon and early evening. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 1245 PM Sunday: A second shortwave trough drops across the Great Lakes Thursday with weak northwest flow setting up over the Southern Appalachians in the wake of the first trough axis. This should help to slowly push the frontal boundary across and eventually south of the area. How long this takes and exactly how far south it ends up remains to be seen. If progress is slower at least isolated to widely scattered diurnal storms will remain possible across southern portions of the area on Thursday and potentially Friday. Most of the area should see the arrival of drier air, however, with PWATs falling to 1-1.25" within lower ThetaE air. Historically, PWATs this low are unfavorable for summer diurnal pulse convection although an isolated storm or two can never be ruled out across the mountains. Relatively dry weather may continue through the holiday weekend, but deeper moisture will eventually return and it`s arrival will be tied to an increase in rain chances - whenever that ends up occurring. && .AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: Isolated SHRA/TSRA may linger around the region thru about midnight, with mostly clear skies and very light SW if not calm winds the remainder of the night. Some mountain valley fog is possible but not necessarily at KAVL; only mention is in TEMPO. Can`t rule out some patchy fog in the terminal area where heavy rain fell today; KGMU was the only TAF site which had heavy rain, but still not confident enough to mention there. Diurnally driven SHRA/TSRA expected again Monday in similar fashion to Sunday. Low VFR cu break out late morning to midday with PROB30 or TEMPO during peak heating. Slightly stronger winds expected in the afternoon compared to the last couple of days, and can`t rule out an occasional gust to 15 kt or so. Outlook: Daily chances for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms through Wed. Fog and/or low stratus possible each morning in the usual mountain valleys as well as near lakes and rivers. Drier air may move in Thu inhibiting convection for a couple of days. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TW NEAR TERM...RWH/Wimberley SHORT TERM...TW LONG TERM...TW AVIATION...Wimberley