077
FXUS62 KGSP 101047
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
647 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Another system will bring showers and thunder this afternoon, before
dry high pressure builds in through the weekend.  An active pattern
will set in for the new workweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 645 AM: Widespread cirrus associated with a thunderstorm
complex moving by to our S will continue to move over the area this
morning. This has not stopped the development of low stratus across
much of the area which will continue through mid morning. A few
showers, or even a thunderstorm, will move into the Upper Savannah
River Valley early this morning before they become isolated through
the rest of the morning.

A short wave will swing across the area from the NW today, after
some weak short wave energy this morning. A low pressure center will
move east along the slow moving cold front moving south across the
area. This, along with lingering moisture, will create scattered
convection over portions of the NC mountains and I-77 corridor, with
isolated convection elsewhere. Instability is expected to develop
during the afternoon, especially across the CLT Metro area where
MUCAPE could reach 1000 J/kg. Weaker instability is expected
elsewhere. Strong bulk shear develops in the Metro area as well. The
instability and shear combined with the forcing could lead to
isolated severe storms with damaging wind gusts and hail the main
threats. Outside of storms, gusty gradient winds are also expected.
Highs will be a little above normal.

The convection should taper off quickly during the evening as drier
air moves in and forcing moves east. Gusts will taper off outside of
the mountains but linger across portions of the higher elevations.
Skies clear with some mountain valley fog possible. Lows will be
around 5 degrees below normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 302 AM EDT Friday: Expect a brief period of flattening uppper
heights on Saturday, before another shortwave dives down into the
Mid Atlantic Saturday night.  Operational guidance depicts a swath
of deep moisture associated with this feature, but it arrives
slowly.  Increasing cirrus from Saturday night onward...becoming
overcast by late Sunday.  Model profiles indicate enough subsidence
to inhibit any thunder Saturday and Sunday afternoons.  Temperatures
will be 1-2 categories below normal on Saturday, rising to within a
category of normal on Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 312 AM EDT Friday: Typical late spring pattern resumes on
Monday with a wavy upper pattern.  The bulk of guidance has some
flavor of a deep trough or closed upper low drifting out of the
Ozarks late Monday and into Tuesday, ushering in better moisture.
Instability looks anemic on Monday and Tuesday, but by Wednesday,
the GFS and CMC both depict a plume of afternoon CAPE intersecting a
well-sheared environment.  Wednesday thus looks like it could
perhaps be our next severe weather day.  Temps will be near or just
below normal Monday, falling to at least a category below normal on
Tuesday.  Things will warm back up on Wednesday and beyond.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Copious high clouds will remain over the
area this morning. Some VFR stratocu will also be seen at KAVl and
KHKY. IFR to LIFR stratus will continue through 15Z or so for all
but KHKY/KAVL. Guidance showing better chance of convection at KCLT
than the rest of the sites, so have converted the PROB30 to a TEMPO
there. W to SW wind this morning becomes gusty from the WNW for the
afternoon. The gusty winds continue from the NW to N into the
evening before diminishing. KAVL will see NNW wind throughout with
very gusty conditions during the afternoon and evening.

Outlook: Drier and likely VFR conditions can be expected this
weekend. Moisture returns late Monday with active weather possible
by Tuesday.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...RWH