Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC

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FXUS62 KGSP 260843
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
343 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER OUR AREA TODAY...PROVIDING
PLEASANT WEATHER WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND...BRINGING
ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES TO OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT...WITH DRIER WEATHER RETURNING THROUGH MID
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 AM EST...A CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WILL DEVELOP INTO A POSITIVE TILT
TROUGH ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY. DOWNSTREAM OF
THIS FEATURE...BROAD RIDGING IS IN PLACE ALOFT OVER SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL START ARRIVING
OVER THIS SHALLOW RIDGE TODAY...BUT WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON
INSOLATION. WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW IN MOST AREAS...EXPECT MAXES
TO REACH 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO...MAINLY 55 TO 60 DEGREES.

GENERALLY DRY PROFILES SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT WITH A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE DEEP LAYER SW
FLOW. THE AIRMASS RECOVERY AND THE SLOWLY INCREASING CLOUDS MAY LEAD
TO MIN TEMPS REBOUNDING A CATEGORY OR TWO OVER FRI MORNING VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM FRI...SHORTWAVE LIFTING NEWD ACRS THE GREAT LAKES WILL
INDUCE SFC CYCLOGENESIS IN THAT AREA SATURDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL
HAVE SHEARED OFF FROM A LARGER TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...WHICH
THEN MOVES OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AS A TRAILING SHORTWAVE. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST AS THE GREAT LAKES LOW
SPINS UP. GULF MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NWD INTO THE SYSTEM WHICH WILL
BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO OUR CWFA SAT AFTN. GFS/NAM/EC ALL SHOW A WEAK
FRONTAL SFC WAVE FORMING OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AHEAD OF THE SRN
STREAM SHORTWAVE. WARM FRONTAL PRECIP AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL WAVE IS
LIKELY TO OCCUR ACRS THE AREA SUNDAY MRNG...WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF LULL
IN COVERAGE BEFORE IT PICKS BACK UP SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. POPS THEN TAPER OFF MONDAY AS THE FRONT
SLOWLY DEPARTS...WITH SOME NW FLOW PRECIP POSSIBLY CONTINUING IN THE
MTNS IN ITS WAKE.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO THRU THE PERIOD WITH THE AREA BASICALLY
REMAINING IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM UNTIL MONDAY WHEN COLD
ADVECTION DOES GET UNDERWAY ACRS THE HIGH TERRAIN. EVEN THEN TEMPS
WILL BE TOO WARM FOR WINTRY PRECIP...SO ALL PRECIP WILL THUS BE
ADVERTISED AS LIQUID. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT EARLY IN THE EVENT IS NOT
IDEAL WITH LLVL WINDS BEING MODEST AT BEST AND VEERED RELATIVE TO THE
THERMAL GRADIENT. THOUGH SOME WEAK UPPER FORCING MAY COME AROUND THIS
TIME FROM MCV/S COMING OFF CONVECTION ALONG THE GULF COAST...MORE
SIGNIFICANT UPPER FORCING DOES NOT COME UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NEARER THE
ACTUAL FROPA. BY THIS TIME THE ISENTROPIC LIFT IS WEAKER. FOR THESE
REASONS...FAVORED BLENDED QPF GENERALLY ON THE LOWER SIDE OF THE
SPECTRUM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM FRI...RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE MID TO LATE WEEK
PATTERN IS SEEN IN THE GFS/EC. BY MONDAY NIGHT A SPRAWLING 1050MB
CANADIAN HIGH WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS DOWNSTREAM
OF A DEEP CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER CA/NV. THE HIGH MOVES SWD INTO TEXAS
THRU THURS MRNG...WITH DEEP DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE PREVAILING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST DURING THIS TIME. BY LATE THU HOWEVER THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO
PROGRESS EWD...BRINGING MOISTURE OUT OF THE GULF AND SUPPORTING
INCREASING POPS OVER OUR AREA FOR THU NIGHT AND FRI. TEMPS WILL
RETURN TO NEAR CLIMO IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLY WEEK FRONT...BUT
REBOUND SLIGHTLY THU WITH WARM ADVECTION GETTING UNDERWAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
TERMINAL FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. FEW TO SCATTERED HIGH
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE DEEP SWLY FLOW OVER THE RIDGE. ANTICIPATE
CALM WINDS THROUGHOUT THIS MORNING...WITH LIGHT SRLY FLOW DEVELOPING
WITH MIXING BY LATE MORNING...EXCEPT LIGHT NW FLOW IN THE FRENCH
BROAD VALLEY AT KAVL.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY. MOISTURE
WILL RETURN AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT...WHICH
COULD BRING FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS BACK BY SUNDAY. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED ON MONDAY...WITH THE NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT ARRIVING
BY WEDNESDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z        02-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...HG


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