Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC

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FXUS62 KGSP 290720

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
320 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016

Moisture will spread across the region today as tropical system
Bonnie stalls near the South Carolina coast. Bonnie will then drift
northeast along the coast of the Carolinas through the week. A weak
cold front will push into the southern Appalachians from the west
and stall late in the week.


As of 300 AM EDT: The center of Tropical Storm Bonnie remains just
off the southeast South Carolina coast early this morning, but with
bands of mostly light rainfall already working westward into the
eastern escarpment of the mountains. It is quite possible that the
best convection and deeper moisture with the system could continue
wrap to the northwest side of the circulation as it meanders into
coastal SC. Although this setup has the potential to produce heavy
rainfall across parts of our forecast area, particularly the
piedmont, the axis of any heaviest rainfall remains difficult to pin
down and QPF could be more evenly spread about the region. The more
eastern solution of the NAM and SREF members appears reasonable
given the expected coastal track of Bonnie, but the more western GFS
and its members have verified better thus far this morning. Will
lean heavily on WPC QPF guidance mixed with a model blend to put the
heaviest 1 to 1.5 inch stripe through tonight mainly from Chester to
Monroe. In addition, the better instability will generally remain
east of our area. No flood watches appear needed at this point, but
the piedmont gradient in QPF could be quite sharp and it bears

In addition to the tropical system rainfall, upper level divergence
over the mountains today should produce some scattered convection
over the high terrain this afternoon. Otherwise, Bonnie should
meander slowly NE along coastal SC through tonight with PoPs slowly
diminishing from the southwest. Anticipate a small diurnal range on
temperatures with mostly 70s this afternoon and 60s tonight except
50s in the mountains.


As of 300 AM Sunday...Bonnie...which is expected to weaken back to a
tropical depression by Monday morning...should begin to drift
east/northeast over NE SC. The deeper moisture and mid LVL
circulation will also shift Monday will feature a little
less cloud cover...esp west of I-77 with typical slight CHC to
low-end CHC Pop for AFTN convection. The heavy rain threat directly
associated with Bonnie should pretty much end by Monday
AFTN...unless the system ends up further inland and doesn/t make the
eastward drift right away.

Models agree on weak steering flow to continue on Tuesday...with
Bonnie or its remnants still INVOF Wilmington NC by Tuesday evening.
There should be ENUF INSTBY for ISOLD to SCT convection again
ACRS the area...but not really ENUF for a pulse severe threat. Temps
both days will be slightly above normal.


As of 315 PM Sunday...Upper ridge builds along the East Coast
Wed-Thu...while a northern stream short wave trough tracks into the
Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. The medium range guidance generally
agrees the the remnants of Bonnie will linger near eastern NC or
just off the Outer Banks. This results in continued weak deep-layer
flow atop the CWFA. Generally little change in air mass is
expected...except for slightly warmer temps which should result in a
little better INSTBY each day. PoPs trend above climo by
Thursday...and continue the usual diurnal cycle. Temps will be a
category or two above normal both days.

Friday and Saturday...A cold front associated with the approaching
upper trough will slow down and eventually stall roughly along the
appalachians. The air mass should be fairly moist with good INSTBY
ACRS the CWFA both days. Above climo PoPs (high-end CHC to likely)
is forecast for both days. Temps will trend slightly cooler for highs
and warmer for lows due to the increased clouds and precip.


At KCLT: tropical shower bands continue to work northwest across the
piedmont early this morning, but precipitation rates have been
fairly light and upstream observations show little in the way of
impending restrictions. Moistening from the top down should
eventually lead to developing MVFR restrictions 10Z to 12Z along
with steadier rain showers. Slow recovery from MVFR to lower end VFR
is possible through the afternoon hours. Northerly winds will
increase through the day with low end gusts likely as T.S. Bonnie
moves into the SC coastline. Scattered showers from additional weak
tropical bands are expected through tonight.

Elsewhere: Moisture from T.S. Bonnie remains a bit more uncertain
across the mountain and foothill TAF sites, but occasional showers
will be likely across the foothills through at least mid afternoon
before drier air starts to work back in from the southwest. MVFR
restrictions look most likely later this morning at KHKY. Expect
occasional northerly gusts across the foothills through the day as
the Bonnie circulation reaches the SC coastline.

Outlook: Bonnie is expected to move very slowly up the coastal
Carolinas over the next several days. Lingering shower chances into
the early part of the week would be greatest at KCLT. Otherwise,
patchy fog chances continue at KAVL each morning, with scattered
afternoon/evening SHRA/TSRA increasing throughout during the week.

Confidence Table...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-06Z
KCLT       High  92%     Med   78%     High 100%     High  95%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High  91%     High 100%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     Med   77%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the schedule TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:




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