Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC

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000
FXUS62 KGSP 191748
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
148 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY...BRINGING WITH IT SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN. DRY AND MOSTLY
SUNNY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
TYPICAL FOR THE SEASON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM...THE FCST LOOKS LIKE IT IS ON TRACK. TEMP/DEWPT TRENDS
LOOK GOOD. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ONLY A FEW WISPS OF CIRRUS MOVING
ACROSS MAINLY THE SRN PART OF THE FCST AREA. NO CHANGES.

REMAINDER OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED IN ALL AREAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. UNDER HEIGHTS
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS...MAX TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT A CATEGORY
BELOW CLIMO THIS AFTERNOON.

BY THE END OF THE DAY...LOW-MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL RETURN TO
SOUTHERLY...IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DIGGING STRONGLY OUT
OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS...ALONG WITH CIRRUS ATTENDING
ASSOCIATED UPPER JET MAX...ARE THE FLIES IN THE OINTMENT IN TERMS OF
THE QUALITY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING THAT WILL EXIST ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. SOME OF THE TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS ACROSS THE NC MTNS WILL
NO DOUBT SEE /FROSTY/ TEMPS. HOWEVER...THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM HAS
BEEN SHUT OFF FOR THE SEASON IN THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO SEE FROST
OR A LIGHT FREEZE TONIGHT...SO NO PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED.
OTHERWISE...MIN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE ERN CONUS MONDAY
WITH HEIGHTS CONTINUING TO FALL INTO THE MIDWEEK...AND A CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPING WITHIN THE TROUGH. TEMPS WILL REBOUND A BIT ON MONDAY IN
SW FLOW. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION TUESDAY BUT THIS
WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THICKNESS VALUES...AND THE SHIFT TO NW
FLOW ACRS THE CWFA LOOKS TO HAVE A SLIGHT WARMING EFFECT. MOISTURE
DURING THE PERIOD IS LIMITED TO THE LOW LEVELS...AND THOUGH WELL
DEFINED LOBES OF VORTICITY PASS OVER THE FA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
NIGHT THE MODELS ONLY SUPPORT PRECIP WHERE THESE FEATURES ENHANCE THE
FORCING PROVIDED BY CAA AND/OR HIGH-ELEVATION INSTABILITY. WE WILL
FEATURE LOW TENN BORDER POPS MONDAY NIGHT EXPANDING TO THE REST OF
THE MTNS AND NRN FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT AREAS TUE...BEFORE THEY AGAIN
RETREAT TO THE BORDER AREA TUE NIGHT. THIS FOLLOWS THE COMBINED
TRENDS OF THE FORCING MECHANISMS DESCRIBED ABOVE. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR
CLIMO...WITH MINS LOOKING TOO WARM FOR FROST CONCERNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST WED NIGHT WILL LIFT OFF TOWARD THE NE WHILE AN
UPPER SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE REGION BY LATE FRI...OFF THE SE COAST
BY SAT. HEIGHTS WILL THEN RISE OVER THE FORECAST AREA SAT INTO SUN
AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS.

AT THE SURFACE...DRY AND COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW WED NIGHT INTO FRI AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER
THE REGION SAT INTO SUN. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
DRY WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL
START OUT AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON THU...AND A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FRI THRU SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE (EXCEPT KAVL)...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND
ESSENTIALLY A WIND FORECAST-ONLY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT NW
WIND SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH SUNSET AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVERHEAD...AND THEN LIGHT S TO SW AFTER SUNRISE ON MONDAY AS
THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST. THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT A RETURN
FLOW OF MOISTURE BEGINNING MONDAY MORNING COULD BRING A FEW LOW
CLOUDS BACK INTO THE REGION AFTER SUNRISE.

AT KAVL...NW/UP-VALLEY WINDS AT 8-12 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH OCCL GUSTS IN THE TEENS LIKELY THROUGH MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. THE GUSTS SHOULD ABATE BY EARLY EVENING AS THE HIGH MOVES
IN. THE MODELS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SW
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WHICH SOME OF THE GUIDANCE USES TO
DEVELOP LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS THE MTNS. WE COULD EASILY SEE SOME
DEVELOPMENT IN THE LITTLE TN VALLEY...BUT PREFER TO KEEP IT OUT OF
THE FR BROAD VALLEY/KAVL AT THIS TIME BECAUSE OF GREAT UNCERTAINTY.
IF ANY FOG DEVELOPS IT WOULD DISSIPATE BY 14Z.

OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRES WILL GENERALLY DOMINATE THROUGH TUESDAY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY NW WINDS AND MOUNTAIN STRATOCU WILL BE
POSSIBLE BEHIND ANOTHER (MOSTLY DRY) COLD FRONT LATE TUE INTO EARLY
WED. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREDOMINATE INTO LATE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...JDL/PM
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...JOH/WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...PM






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