Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC

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000
FXUS62 KGSP 281455
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1055 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RETURNING FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT LEAVE A TRAILING COLD FRONT NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1040 AM EDT...BAND OF SHOWERS...LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH
MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH...HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
LATE THIS MORNING. CLEARING SKIES ACROSS THE BULK OF THE FORECAST
AREA...ALONG WITH 60S DEWPOINTS AND RESPECTABLY STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES IS RESULTING IN A QUICK WARM-UP AND DESTABILIZATION
ACROSS THE AREA...AS SBCAPE OF AROUND 1000 J/KG IS ALREADY BEING
REALIZED (PER SPC MESOANALYSIS DATA). HOWEVER...THE DEPARTING WAVE
SUGGESTS LARGE SCALE WEAK SUBSIDENCE WILL LIKELY PREDOMINATE FOR AT
LEAST A COUPLE MORE HOURS...AND THERE WILL BE A LACK OF ANY
ORGANIZED SOURCES OF RISING MOTION. HOWEVER...A TRANSIENT SYNOPTIC
SURFACE TROUGH...ALONG WITH PERHAPS A SURFACE LEE TROUGH ARE
EXPECTED TO SET UP ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY. WEAK BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NE COULD ALSO PLAY A FACTOR BY
THE END OF THE DAY ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT. THESE FEATURES IN ADDITION
TO DIFFERENTIAL HEATING/TERRAIN EFFECTS WITHIN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS (SBCAPE LIKELY PEAKING IN THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE) SHOULD
RESULT IN AT LEAST SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON. PER THE LATEST MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE...THE MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO WILL INVOLVE SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG/NEAR THE
BLUE RIDGE AND MOVING EAST WITHIN MEAN WESTERLY FLOW. SHEAR IS NOT
OUTSTANDING...BUT CERTAINLY ADEQUATE FOR ORGANIZED/POSSIBLY ROTATING
CELLS PRODUCING LOCALLY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE HIGHEST
POPS (40-60) WILL CONTINUE TO BE FEATURED FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST
ACROSS WESTERN NC...WITH 30 PERCENT APPEARING ADEQUATE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT WARM MAXES SOME 10
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO AGAIN.

THE DEEP LAYER WESTERLY FLOW WILL PROMOTE RAPID DOWNSLOPE DRYING
OVERNIGHT. MILD MIN TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO
AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM THURSDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS A DEEP TROUGH EJECTS OUT
OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. FRIDAY WILL SEE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY NWLY LLVL FLOW...RESULTING IN A DRY DAY WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. TEMPS WILL PUSH THE UPPER 80S EAST OF THE
MTNS...ONLY A CATEGORY OR TWO AWAY FROM RECORD HIGHS FOR KGSP AND
KCLT.

FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY NIGHT...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
ORGANIZE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...ACTIVATING A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING FROM KS/MO TO THE CAROLINAS. TO AID IN THE LLVL...THERE
WILL BE A DRY ONSET WEDGE EAST OF THE MTNS...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE MODELS AGREE IN GRADUAL MOISTENING
PROFILES AND INCREASING POPS FROM WEST TO EAST...ESP SATURDAY AFTN
THRU SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER ON SATURDAY...AS
CLOUDS INCREASE AND FLOW TURNS OUT OF THE NE. MIN TEMPS WILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...MODELS DIVERGE ON THE PATTERN SIGNIFICANTLY
IN THE MEDIUM RANGE. THE GFS IS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE FIRST IN A
SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROFS DIGGING THRU THE GREAT LAKE TO THE EAST
COAST. IT TRACKS A WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EAST ACRS THE MID
ATLANTIC SUNDAY...THEN BRINGS IN WEAK DRY HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE LAST TWO RUNS OF THE ECWMF
SHOW A WEAKER FIRST UPPER TROUGH...BUT THEN DIG A DEEPER SECOND
TROUGH FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE RESULT IS FOR A TRAILING FRONT
TO STALL ATOP THE CWFA...WITH ANOTHER SFC WAVE RIDING NE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY AND PRODUCING MUCH MORE UNSETTLED WX THAN THE GFS. THE
LATEST WPC PREFERENCE SEEMS MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF. BUT FOR NOW
I WILL KEEP POPS MORE IN THE SLGT CHC TO LOW-END CHC RANGE THAN THE
MID TO HIGH-CHC OF THE SUPERBLEND. TEMPS SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL FOR HIGH TEMPS...BUT REMAIN A COUPLE CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...THE PASSING LINE OF SHOWERS WILL IMPACT
MAINLY KHKY TO KCLT AROUND DAYBREAK...WITH A GENERAL LULL ELSEWHERE
FOR THE MORNING HOURS. EXPECT MAINLY SCATTERED VFR CLOUDS THIS
MORNING...BUT WITH SOME MVFR LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS FILLING IN FROM THE
SW. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS UPPER
JETLET SUPPORT ARRIVES...BUT WITH COVERAGE BEST FROM THE NORTHERN
BLUE RIDGE TO PRIMARILY NORTH OF KCLT. MOST SITES WILL GET VCSH WITH
A PROB30 FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...EXCEPT
A BIT EARLIER AT KAVL. DEEP MIXING TODAY SHOULD SUPPORT PLENTY OF
GUSTS INTO THE LOWER 20S. WINDS WILL TOGGLE WESTERLY TOWARD EVENING
AND NW IN THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY AT KAVL. MOISTURE WILL DIMINISH
RAPIDLY FROM THE WEST TONIGHT IN THE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW.

OUTLOOK...ADDITIONAL DRYING IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...WITH BRIEF VFR
CONDITIONS...BEFORE UNSETTLED WEATHER AND POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS
RETURN FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            15-21Z        21-03Z        03-09Z        09-12Z
KCLT       HIGH  85%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  87%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  88%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH  87%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR 04-28

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      86 1986     45 1913     63 1956     29 1928
                1957
   KCLT      90 1943     51 1928     66 1954     36 2005
                                                    2004
                                                    1967
   KGSP      90 1943     54 2013     65 1954     36 1898
                1915
                1914



RECORDS FOR 04-29

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      89 1970     46 1999     63 1956     28 1967
   KCLT      91 1888     48 1999     65 1994     33 1973
                                        1991
                                        1914
   KGSP      91 1917     47 1999     67 1975     32 1992

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...HG/JDL
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...HG
CLIMATE...


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