Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 300916
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
416 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A TROUGH SWINGING EAST
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES...HAS PUSHED A COLD
FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS MORNING.  AS A
RESULT...ELEVATED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WAS SHIFTING
EAST IN THE VICINITY OF THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR.  AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO FOLLOW SUIT WHILE CONTINUING TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
REGION.

WITH THE FRONT`S MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT PULLING OUT OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST...WITHOUT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...AS
DEW POINTS GENERALLY HOVER IN THE UPPER 50S THIS AFTERNOON...AND
WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WEDGING INTO MY SOUTH...STORMS ARE CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS TODAY.  HIGH-RES MODELS ALSO
STRUGGLE TO MAINTAIN CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR
FOR REASONS MENTIONED ABOVE.  STILL...WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT
PRESENT (MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7-7.5 C/KM AND 27-28C VERTICAL
TOTALS)...AN INTENSE CORE COULD POTENTIALLY SUPPORT THE PRODUCTION
OF SMALL HAIL AND SOME GUSTY WINDS.  CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING.

THE FRONT WILL BRIEFLY STALL ALONG TO JUST SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE
20 CORRIDOR TONIGHT...AND BEGIN TO LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH ON
TUESDAY...BEFORE FINALLY WASHING OUT...TUESDAY NIGHT.  THE
BOUNDARY...COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND INCREASING MOISTURE OVER
THE REGION WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER MAINLY
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  WEAK RIDGING ALOFT...ALONG WITH SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT...
WILL AGAIN KEEP RAIN CHANCES LESS OVER MY SOUTH COMPARED TO THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA.

INCREASING INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY AS DEW POINTS CLIMB TOWARD THE
MID 60S AND HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S...IN
ADDITION TO AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE ALOFT...CONTINUED STEEP MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF 7.5-8 C/KM AND 28-30C VERTICAL
TOTALS...COULD YIELD A FEW ROBUST STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.  AT THE MOMENT...THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS
APPEARS TO BE OVER AREAS NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR.  HERE
THERE LOOKS TO A BETTER COMBINATION OF THE ABOVE PARAMETERS...IN
ADDITION TO BETTER FORCING...AND LESS INFLUENCE FROM THE WEAK
RIDGING ACROSS MY SOUTH.  THUS...I`LL MAINTAIN THE "LIMITED" THREAT
FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS IN THE HWO.  ONCE AGAIN...MOST CONVECTION
WILL WIND DOWN AFTER SUNSET...BUT SOME COULD LINGER ACROSS MY NORTH
A LITTLE LATER INTO THE NIGHT. /19/

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WHILE LEFT OVER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED FROM THE DELTA REGION TO SE MS. WARM
ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING WAVE WILL AID IN BOUNDARY
LIFTING OUT TO THE NE DURING THE DAY. WITH LOWER 60 DEWPOINTS
OVERSPREADING THE REGION DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY...EXPECT
SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. CONVECTION WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD
AND ROBUST IN AREAS ALONG THE BOUNDARY WHERE MID 60 DEWPOINTS WILL
POOL ALLOWING CAPES TO PUSH 2000-3000 J/KG. FORTUNATELY LOW AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL BE LOW...BUT STILL A FEW LOCALIZED STORMS MAY
BECOME INTENSE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND TEMPS RISING INTO THE LOWER 80S
WILL PROMOTE DECENT AIRMASS CONVECTION FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH BEST COVERAGE OCCURRING WHERE BEST LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE CAN SETUP.

BETTER FORCING WILL ARRIVE BY FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY AS MORE
IMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL WAVE AND ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
MORE IMPRESSIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE BY THIS TIME...BUT
INSTABILITY AND STRENGTH OF CAPPING INVERSION WILL BE BIG QUESTION
MARK WITH ITS LATE DAY/NIGHTTIME ARRIVAL FOR ANY SEVERE
POSSIBILITIES.

A GOOD DOSE OF POST FRONTAL PRECIP LOOKS POSSIBLE WITH ISENTROPIC
ASCENT OVER THE TOP OF THE FRONTAL SURFACE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MORNING. A GOOD COOL DOWN WILL BE ON TAP FOR
SATURDAY/SUNDAY AS HIGHS STRUGGLE TO REACH 70. /26/

&&

.AVIATION...A MIX OF VFR TO IFR FLIGHT STATUSES CURRENTLY EXIST AT
TAF SITES ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...PRIMARILY DUE TO LOW
STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG LIMITING VISIBILITY.  PATCHY FOG WILL
DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...BUT LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER
THROUGH A GOOD BIT OF THE MORNING AS A RESULT OF BOTH CLOUDS AND
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE REGION.  TAF SITES WHERE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITH THAT SITE`S
AERODROME COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES.
AS THE FRONT PASSES...WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY BETWEEN 5-10
KNOTS.  THIS FRONT IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO STALL GENERALLY BETWEEN
THE INTERSTATE 20 AND HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDORS LATER TODAY.  WINDS SOUTH
OF THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH...WITH PATCHY FOG
AGAIN POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       76  57  79  59 /  32  10  20  23
MERIDIAN      77  55  79  58 /  46  10  26  30
VICKSBURG     77  58  79  59 /  26  10  20  18
HATTIESBURG   80  58  83  61 /  27  10  12   8
NATCHEZ       76  59  80  60 /  18  10  11   7
GREENVILLE    72  57  76  59 /  18  10  37  35
GREENWOOD     73  56  75  58 /  21  10  41  37

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

19/26


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