Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 260302 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1002 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...CLEAR SKIES WERE BEING OBSERVED OVER THE WHOLE AREA THIS
EVENING. THIS COMBINED WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND A COOLER START DUE TO
RAIN...HAS ALLOWED THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA TO COOL FASTER THAN
EXPECTED THIS EVENING. DEW POINTS WERE ALSO RUNNING LOWER SO HAVE
LOWERED MORNING LOWS BY A COUPLE DEGREES IN MOST AREAS. MODELS
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR MORNING STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AGAIN SO HAVE
ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER AS WELL. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...ALL CONVECTION HAS ENDED AND CLEAR SKIES WERE BEING
OBSERVED AT ALL TAF SITES AT 03Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
AROUND 09Z WHEN MODELS SUGGEST MOIST LOWER LEVELS WILL KEEP THE
POTENTIAL FOR IFR/LIFR CATEGORY STRATUS REDEVELOP...MAINLY ALONG/S
OF THE TVR-JAN-MEI CORRIDOR. THE SHALLOW MOIST LAYER SHOULD MIX OUT
QUICKLY BY MID MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THEREAFTER.
/EC/22/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...SOME CLEARING IS BEING SEEN AROUND THE REGION AND ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. CLOUDS HAVE MOSTLY CLEARED ACROSS THE
DELTA AND THE CLEARING LINE APPEARS TO BE AROUND THE NATCHEZ TRACE.
SFC WINDS HAVE BEEN VEERING THROUGH THE DAY AND THIS HAS HELPED
BRING IN DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION AND BEGUN THE CLEARING PROCESS.
UPPER LOW AND SFC LOW CAN ALSO BE SEEN SPINNING ACROSS MISSOURI THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEY SHOULD BE SLOWLY TRACKING OFF TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
MORNING CONVECTION THAT BROUGHT MOSTLY RAIN TO PORTIONS OF THE PINE
BELT AND SEVERE WEATHER JUST SOUTH OF MY CWA CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST
OF THE REGION. THIS SHOULD BE THE END TO THE RAIN FOR AT LEAST A
COUPLE OF DAYS. SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR A DRY BUT FAIRLY WARM DAY. THIS COMES AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING SOUTH TOWARD THE ARKLAMISS REGION
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE EASTWARD MOVING SFC LOW. AS IS GENERALLY THE
CASE AHEAD OF A BOUNDARY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AND WE SHOULD SEE
HIGHS INTO THE MID 80S TOMORROW. THIS FRONT WONT PLOW THROUGH THE
REGION...AND IN FACT SHOULD SLOWLY OOZE INTO THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY
TOMORROW BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MY CWA.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY BUT MOISTURE AND
POTENTIALLY SOME CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF MY CWA BY LATER ON MONDAY. THIS COMES AS ANOTHER UPPER
LOW SPINS ACROSS OK/TX AND A WEAK SFC LOW/INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS
IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR THE STALLED BOUNDARY. BOTH OF
THESE FEATURES WILL TRACK EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...INCREASING
RAIN/STORM CHANCES ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS REGION. GIVEN THE
MORE SOUTHERN TRACK OF THIS SFC LOW AS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
SYSTEMS...POTENT/STRONG/SEVERE STORMS DONT LOOK TO BE A CONCERN AT
THIS TIME. SOME THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION AND RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.
DESPITE THE HIGHS FOR TOMORROW...SUMMER WONT BE STARTING JUST YET. A
DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS UPPER
RIDGING SHOULD TAKE HOLD OF THE REGION. /28/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       63  87  60  76 /   8   5   9  24
MERIDIAN      60  86  58  75 /   8   5   7  10
VICKSBURG     65  86  61  76 /   7   6  14  28
HATTIESBURG   64  89  65  80 /   8   4   9  27
NATCHEZ       64  87  64  76 /   6   4  19  43
GREENVILLE    62  81  58  70 /   6   5  12  15
GREENWOOD     62  81  56  72 /   8   5   9  11

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

22/28


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