Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 211029
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
429 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Today through tonight,

An upper low in the process of closing off is centered roughly over
the ArkLaTex region early this morning and is pushing slowly east.
The leading edge of the rain shield has moved into western Alabama
and widespread light to moderate rain covers the forecast area.
While the bulk of the initial rain shield will continue to move east
of the area this morning, expect showers to regenerate later today
as the system cold core has more influence. Some thunder will be a
possibility given colder mid/upper level temperatures and increased
instability, but not expecting intense deep convection.

Otherwise, temperatures will be cooler today than in recent days
largely because of the clouds/rain. Rain chances will diminish
tonight as the closed low shifts southeast of the area. While
explicit guidance is not bullish with fog development tonight, the
moist boundary layer and wet ground will be supportive should winds
decrease enough and skies clear, so will need to monitor for fog
potential. /EC/

Wednesday through Monday night:

A anomalous warm pattern will be the general rule for the remainder
of the work week. This will be followed by a cooler pattern for the
weekend as temps dip toward normal levels. A warming trend will come
back to the region for early next week. Looking at some low end
chances of rain for mid week as well this weekend into Monday night.

On Wednesday the closed upper low will be tracking Southeast of the
ArkLaMiss into the eastern gulf. There will be some wrap around
isolated showers on Wednesday. Shortwave ridging will provide some
dry weather for Wednesday night into Thursday night. A weak upper
trough will track across the Central and Southern Plains on
Friday. It will push a cold front through the region on Friday
night. Precipitable water will be around one inch which will be
just enough to support isolated convective chances with limited
instability for Friday night. The airmass in the wake of the front
will push our temperatures a little closer to normal for this
time with precipitable water less than 0.50 inch. Cool high
pressure will build across the region on Saturday from the
Southern Plains. Gulf return flow will come back across the region
by Sunday night. Precipitable water will approach one inch as we
develop some isolated showers in the Delta region on Sunday
night. Low end rainfall chances will spread across the region on
Monday into Monday night. Gulf inflow will bring another anomalous
warming trend to the region for early next week.

Looking ahead, southwest flow aloft will keep an unsettled
weather pattern across the region through the remainder of next
week. /17/


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF discussion:
A large area of -RA/SHRA will continue to progress east across
the ArkLaMiss overnight into early Tuesday. Mostly MVFR category
ceilings/vsbys will accompany the rain with occasional IFR vsbys
in heavier downpours. As the upper low center moves across Tuesday
into Tuesday evening, scattered shower activity will continue.
/EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       66  53  73  53 /  78  35  20   5
Meridian      66  55  74  53 /  94  48  23   7
Vicksburg     67  54  74  52 /  57  28  19   4
Hattiesburg   67  53  75  54 /  90  38  22   5
Natchez       67  55  72  53 /  55  28  19   4
Greenville    66  55  73  54 /  63  33  14   4
Greenwood     67  55  75  53 /  82  48  19   5

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&


$$


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