Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 290146 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
846 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...DRY AND COOLER WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR TONIGHT THANKS TO
A COOL FRONT WHICH MOVED THROUGH THE ARKLAMISS TODAY. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S SOUTH TO THE LOWER 60S NORTH. THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED. /27/


&&

.AVIATION...STORMS HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE REGION AND VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH
THE REGION AND WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY AROUND 5-7KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN BETWEEN 10-14Z TUESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE EAST AND
SOUTH BEFORE GOING VFR AFTER 14Z. /28/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWS THE COLD FRONT NEAR THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR WITH ONLY A FEW
STORMS ALONG IT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING SOUTH OF OUR
CWA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THERE IS STILL A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM TO DEVELOP OVER OUR SOUTHEAST MOST COUNTIES
WITH WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH. THIS POTENTIAL WILL END ONCE THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT. MID 70 DEGREE DEW POINTS OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
AT NOON HAVE BEEN KNOCKED DOWN INTO THE MID 60S. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A FEW HIGH CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THAT MAY EDGE INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES TONIGHT...BUT MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A LIGHT NORTH
WIND WILL ALLOW THE DRIER AIRMASS TO COOL BELOW NORMAL BY MORNING.
NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST AT GREENWOOD AND VICKSBURG
TUESDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER 60S IN THOSE
AREAS. TUESDAY WILL BE COOLER AND REMAIN DRY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WE MAINTAIN OUR NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT THANKS TO THE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK IS EXPECTED TUESDAY
NIGHT WHERE RECORD LOWS WILL BE TIED OR BROKEN AT MORE LOCATIONS.
THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR THICKER HIGH CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AGAIN THAT MAY HINDER OPTIMUM RADIATIVE
COOLING...ESPECIALLY IN OUR WESTERN ZONES. DESPITE THE HIGH
CLOUDS...GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH WEDNESDAY MORNING
LOWS BOTTOMING OUT CLOSER TO 60F AND POSSIBLY DIPPING INTO THE UPPER
50S AT THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. MOST OF THE MORNING LOWS FOR
THE DATE WERE SET BACK IN 1994 BUT THE RECORD LOWS FOR MERIDIAN 60F
AND JACKSON 61F WERE SET BACK IN 1897. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
REMAIN OVER OUR REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED NORTH OF OUR AREA LIMITING DEEP
MOISTURE RETURN TO OUR CWA. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH A SHORTWAVE
IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASING RAIN CHANCES OVER OUR CWA
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS OUR AIRMASS WILL LIKELY TAKE SOME
TIME TO MOISTEN...LIGHT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN LIMITED TO THE DELTA
REGION AND LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
SLOWLY SPREAD EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT OUR
SOUTHEAST ZONES WILL REMAIN DRY UNTIL DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. /22/


LONG TERM...A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...A VERY
UNUSUAL SITUATION FOR LATE JULY AND EARLY AUGUST. THIS WILL LEAD TO
BELOW NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY AND ONCE THE MOISTURE ESTABLISHES
ITSELF...IT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY. THE RAIN WILL
MOSTLY BE SHOWERS THURSDAY DUE TO DRY AIR...BUT ENOUGH INSTABILITY
WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO
BE A DAILY OCCURRENCE. /SW/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       65  90  61  90 /   2   1   2   8
MERIDIAN      63  90  58  89 /   3   1   2   6
VICKSBURG     63  90  60  89 /   2   2   2  10
HATTIESBURG   68  93  64  92 /   8   3   2   4
NATCHEZ       67  89  63  89 /   7   2   2   5
GREENVILLE    65  88  61  86 /   2   1   2  17
GREENWOOD     62  86  59  87 /   2   1   2  11

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$






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