Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 271722 AAC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1222 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017

Updated for 18Z aviation discussion


18Z TAF discussion:
VFR flight categories are prevailing at all TAF sites across the
region this afternoon.  High cirrus clouds will continue to stream
east across the area today, but VFR categories will persist through
the remainder of the afternoon and into early Wednesday morning.
Winds today will generally be east northeasterly between 4-7 knots,
but will subside to light to calm overnight. /19/


High pressure at the surface will maintain easterly flow across the
region through the remainder of today.  This will result in
continued quiet and slightly drier conditions across the CWA as dew
points generally sit in the low to mid 60s.  Although some cirrus
can be observed on satellite across locales south of the Interstate
20 corridor, mostly sunny skies will prevail this afternoon as highs
warm into the upper 80s.

Other than some minor adjustments to the hourly grids to account for
ongoing trends, no major changes were made to the forecast on this
update. /19/

Prior discussion below:

Today and Tonight:

As the upper trough remains in place across the eastern half of
the CONUS and surface high across the Ohio Valley, northerly winds
and dewpoints in the 60s will continue today over the ArkLaMiss
region. Temperatures will be a little warmer today than yesterday
and reach into the mid to upper 80s. However, with this dry air in
place(characterized by PW values around one inch), it should feel
pleasant once again. As the surface high continues to slide off
to the east through the afternoon into tonight, winds will
gradually shift out of the south later tonight. Slight moistening
will begin but enough dry air should be present to allow our
overnight lows to drop into the mid to upper 60s areawide. /28/

Wednesday through Monday:

It does appear that this late June dry spell will come to an end
Wednesday. As the surface high moves off the East Coast and low
pressure develops over the High Plains, moist southerly flow will
return to our region. Dewpoint temperatures will climb back into
the low 70s Wednesday into Thursday. An area of upper-level low
pressure will be lifting northeastward along the Gulf Coast,
helping to provide some lift for showers and thunderstorms across
the area. Better rain chances on Wednesday will be limited to
areas south of Interstate 20, before spreading more areawide on
Thursday and Friday. At this time, the chances for severe weather
look to be minimal for the second half of this week. Modest
amounts of instability combined with weak shear should result in
fairly typical summertime convection.

More active weather will be possible next weekend, however, as a
shortwave trough is forecast to slide eastward across the central
CONUS during that time. A cold frontal boundary will dip into the
region, shifting the focus for more organized rainfall to our
north while bringing steeper mid-level lapse rates and a little
better flow to our forecast area. Microburst potential will be
increased with afternoon convection due to the steeper lapse rates
and higher moisture content of the atmosphere. While some chance
for showers and thunderstorms will continue into next work week,
models indicates high pressure will try to build back over our
region in the wake of the trough`s passage. Temperatures will
gradually trend upwards if high pressure becomes established, but
have kept highs near normal for this time of year due to some
uncertainties regarding the larger weather pattern at that point.


Jackson       89  68  88  70 /   2   1  23  16
Meridian      87  67  88  70 /   2   2  19  17
Vicksburg     88  68  89  71 /   2   1  22  14
Hattiesburg   88  68  87  70 /   6   4  43  34
Natchez       87  68  87  71 /  11   2  35  20
Greenville    87  68  88  71 /   2   1   6   7
Greenwood     88  68  88  71 /   1   1   6   8





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