Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KJAN 140214 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
914 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

.UPDATE...
MOST SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED. THOUGH THERE DOES SEEM TO BE A COUPLE
SHOWERS FEEDING ON LITTLE OUTFLOWS IN LEAKE AND ATTALA COUNTIES STILL.
AS USUAL...THESE WILL DIE DOWN WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. LOWERED THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT POPS FOR THE UPDATE. OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES ARE
NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AGAIN IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS TOMORROW. /10/

&&

.AVIATION...
SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY HAS DISSIPATED FOR THE EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE PATCHY AREAS OF
MAINLY MVFR CATEGORY MIST/FOG THAT COULD IMPACT FORECAST SITES
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY
EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT A COLD FRONT APPROACHING MONDAY NIGHT
FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. /EC/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014/

SHORT TERM...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND THE RESULTANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDICES DOWN IN MANY
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPED ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 HAS
MOSTLY DISSIPATED WHILE STORMS CLOSER TO THE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
GULF COAST REMAIN ACTIVE AT THE MOMENT. WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS
INTO THE EVENING FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD REMAINING DRY.

A MORE ACTIVE DIURNAL STORM DAY IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS LOWER AND RIDGING RETREATS TO THE WEST. THIS WILL OCCUR AS A
SEAONABLY DEEP MID LEVEL LOW DROPS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA BRINGING THE CHANCE OF
AN ORGANIZED LINE/CLUSTER OF STORMS MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
STEADILY SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY WITH CONTINUED
STORM ACTIVITY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL WANE IN THE NORTH BY TUESDAY NIGHT
BUT CONTINUE IN THE SOUTH.

THE FRONT WILL BRING MUCH DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH
LOWS IN THE 60S EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT. /SW/

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DESPITE THE FRONT BEING
SOUTH OF OUR CWA BY WEDNESDAY WL MAINTAIN LOW RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. MODELS STILL HINT AT UPSTREAM CONVECTION
IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT BRINGING SOME ACTIVITY INTO OUR AREA. AN MCS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS WL BE POSSIBLE. ANOTHER MORE POTENT
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY AND SWING
ACROSS OUR CWA FRIDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THIS FEATURE
AND GENERATES A GOOD DEAL MORE QPF ACROSS OUR AREA THAN THE 00Z GFS.
PWS IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES IS EXPECTED TO SURGE NORTH OVER OUR AREA
AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE TO SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. WL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS SYSTEM FOR FLOODING POTENTIAL BUT RAIN CHANCES WL
INCREASE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE
IN STORE FOR SUNDAY. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       72  94  73  89 /   6  35  56  51
MERIDIAN      69  93  72  91 /   7  40  57  41
VICKSBURG     71  95  73  88 /   5  32  54  57
HATTIESBURG   73  93  74  92 /   6  43  28  47
NATCHEZ       73  94  72  88 /   6  36  30  55
GREENVILLE    73  94  73  87 /   5  30  58  49
GREENWOOD     72  94  73  89 /   8  30  62  45

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.