Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 010209 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
909 PM CDT FRI SEP 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Very quiet conditions exist across the CWA this evening with calm
winds across the board. Temperatures have fallen to the mid 60s
already with only some mid-level cloud cover passing overhead in
spots. For this update...decreased lows in a couple spots (GWO, TVR)
due to current readings and past night`s over-achievements. /10/

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail across the region for the most part.
MVFR visibilities in fog will be possible between 01/11Z and 01/14Z
at GLH, GWO and HBG./26/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 316 PM CDT FRI SEP 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...Tonight through Saturday night...The upper level low
continues to meander about the Ohio River Valley this afternoon,
placing us under continued northwest flow aloft. While high pressure
at the sureface will maintain quiet weather across the region
through at least Saturday night, the upper low will begin to lift
north into the Great Lakes region on Saturday, causing flow aloft
over us to become more westerly.  This will result in a gradual
warming trend across the forecast area.

Under mostly clear skies tonight, lows will again be chilly as they
fall into the low and middle 50s.  On Saturday, highs will rebound a
degree or two compared to Friday, and will top out in the low and
middle 80.  Then for Saturday night, lows will also be a bit
warmer as they fall mid and upper 50s.

The overall evolution of the forecast remains unchange Sunday
through next Thursday. Thus, the previous long term forecast
discussion follows. /19/

Sunday through Thursday night...The upper low will continue to move
northeast out of the Ohio Valley but upper troughing will persist on
Sunday. Expect warmer highs in the mid 80s on Sunday as models
suggest warmer H850/H925 temps. Both the GFS/ECMWF begin to build
upper ridging over the area Sunday night into Monday with the warming
trend continuing. Highs on Monday will climb into the mid/upper 80s,
and as upper heights continue to increase across the area on Tuesday
and Wednesday, high temperatures will climb into the upper 80s to
around 90 degrees.

The GFS/ECMWF both deepen an upper trough over the southern plains
on Wednesday with the ECMWF the faster of the models. The ECMWF
develops some precip over the area on Wednesday and Wednesday night,
while the GFS keeps the precip west. The ECMWF is deeper with the
trough on Thursday and drives a cold front across the area on
Thursday along with precip. The GFS keeps the trough to the north of
the area and builds upper ridging back in. Will continue to keep at
least slight chance thunder on Thursday to align with our neighbors.
If Hurricane Matthew takes a track up the east coast like the GFS
suggest, expect the extended to mainly be dry, but its unclear what
track Matthew will take at this time. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       54  83  57  85 /   0   0   0   2
Meridian      53  85  55  88 /   0   0   0   2
Vicksburg     51  83  58  84 /   0   0   0   2
Hattiesburg   55  84  59  86 /   0   0   0   5
Natchez       55  80  57  82 /   0   0   0   5
Greenville    55  82  57  84 /   0   0   0   2
Greenwood     53  81  57  84 /   0   0   0   2

&&

.JAN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

10/26



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