Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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000
FXUS64 KJAN 200908
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
408 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA.

THE COMBINATION OF S/WV RIDGING SUPPRESSION OVER THE REGION TODAY ON
BACK SIDE OF UPPER TROUGH OVER GA AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CAROLINAS FORCING DRIER AIR INTO REGION FROM NE WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES NIL. 00Z KJAN SOUNDING OBSERVED A PWAT OF 1.41" WITH
UPSTREAM BMX AT 1.26". THE DRIER AIR TO OUR E/NE WILL CONTINUE TO
FILTER IN THROUGH THE DAY AND EVEN BE DIFFICULT TO SUPPORT AFTERNOON
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS BY 2-5F DEGREES EXPECTED
HOWEVER WITH 925MB TEMPS NEAR 23-25C SUPPORTING UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S.

TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING A DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY AND STRONG SURFACE HIGH IN THE PLAINS WILL HELP FACILITATE A
COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE HWY 82 CORRIDOR BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WITH LITTLE TO NO DYNAMICS, WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE, AND
ONLY SLIGHT MOISTURE POOLING ALONG FRONT, CONTINUE TO FEEL RAIN WILL
BE LIMITED IN SCOPE AND QUANTITY WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING DRY AND
WARM AGAIN ON SUNDAY. WHILE THERE IS CONFIDENCE OF SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS ALONG A BAND LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE, FEEL RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE LOW AND SPORADIC. THUS,
HAVE PLACED ONLY 15-20% POP FOR FAR NORTH AREAS SUNDAY LATE AFTN
INTO OVERNIGHT MONDAY. /ALLEN/

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT COME MONDAY MORNING A SIGNIFICANT
COLD FRONT WILL BE MID WAY THROUGH OUR CWA. THE NAM IS BY FAR THE
WETTEST ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT MODEL CONSENSUS IS RATHER
DRY. WL CARRY ISOLATED WORDING SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20. THE COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH SOUTH OF OUR CWA BY EVENING AND MUCH DRIER AND A LITTLE
COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO OUR CWA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. PWS
WILL DROP BELOW A HALF INCH AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 50S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE COOLEST MORNING LOWS OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S
SOUTH. NORMAL LOWS ARE NEAR 60 DEGREES AT MOST SITES. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THAT WAS SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT EAST OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY WHILE THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY MOVES NORTH INTO CANADA. THIS WILL LEAVE US WITH WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT AND AN EAST LOW LEVEL FLOW. NORMAL HIGHS RUN NEAR 85
DEGREES TUESDAY AND UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND A DRIER
AIRMASS...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL RAPIDLY TUESDAY EVENING BUT
WEDNESDAY MORNING LOWS WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS TUESDAY MORNING WITH
MOST SITES BOTTOMING OUT NEAR 60 DEGREES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR NORTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY RESULTING IN THE
NORTHEAST TO EAST LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION. RIDGING ALOFT
WILL AMPLIFY OVER OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WHILE TROUGHING ALOFT
DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER
MUCH OF OUR CWA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT MODELS SHOW LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASING OVER OUR SOUTHERN ZONES THAT WILL LEAD TO
THE CHANCE OF A FEW AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL CREEP BACK ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR SKC CONDS PREVAIL THIS MORNING MINUS KHBG WITH 4-5SM
VIS DUE TO GROUND FOG. SOME SPORADIC GROUND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH 1330Z BUT QUICKLY DISSIPATE THEREAFTER WITH VFR PREVAILING
REST OF DAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF E/NE LESS THAN 10 KT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ONLY FEW060 CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT BEFORE SKC AGAIN
OVERNIGHT. /ALLEN/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       90  65  91  65 /   4   3   5  14
MERIDIAN      87  64  90  64 /   3   3   5  14
VICKSBURG     91  64  92  65 /   5   3   5  14
HATTIESBURG   89  67  92  67 /   4   2   2  14
NATCHEZ       89  66  90  66 /   5   1   2  14
GREENVILLE    91  66  92  62 /   4   2  12  16
GREENWOOD     90  65  92  61 /   3   2  14  16

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

ALLEN/22





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