Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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000
FXUS64 KJAN 011605
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1005 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.UPDATE...MOST OF THE SHOWERS ARE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. A
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTHEAST ARKANSAS INTO NORTHEAST
TEXAS AND THIS FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE DELTA BY MID AFTERNOON. THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. CURRENTLY WE HAVE A LIMITED RISK
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OUTLOOKED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
IT CONTINUES TO LOOK UNFAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES WITH THE MAIN RISK
BEING STRONG WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BUMPED POPS DOWN THIS
MORNING TO ALIGN WITH MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
AREA...BUT OTHER THAN THAT THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK./15/

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

THE WEATHER SCENARIO IS GENERALLY UNFOLDING AS ADVERTISED THIS
MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BREAKING OUT IN A
WARM ADVECTION REGIME...ALBEIT A LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED. IN SPITE OF POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES PRESENT...THE
FORECAST FOR GREATER SFC HEATING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN HAVE
INCREASED THE INSTABILITY WHICH IS NOW FORECAST TO BE ~500 J/KG MOST
UNSTABLE CAPE LATER THIS AFTN. WITH STRONG WIND SHEAR FORECAST (0-6KM
~60KT, 0-1KM ~35KT)...THIS INCREASES THE CONCERN FOR GETTING A FEW
STORMS CONTAINING STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS WHERE CONVECTION CAN
BECOME NEAR SFC-BASED...BUT THE POSITIVE TILT OF THE TROUGH AND
RELATIVELY VEERED LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES SHOULD KEEP INGREDIENTS FOR
SEVERE WEATHER SOMEWHAT DISJOINTED AND UNFAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES.
EXPECT THE GREATER RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO BE IN THE AFTERNOON TO
EARLY EVENING PER LATEST ARW/NMM GUIDANCE WHEN THE COMBINATION OF LOW
LEVEL FRONTAL FORCING/DIABATIC HEATING WILL BE GREATEST. WILL ADD A
MENTION OF THIS LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER RISK IN THE HWO.

TOTAL RAINFALL WILL BE MODERATE ON AVERAGE - A HALF TO ONE INCH AT
MOST LOCATIONS. THERE MAY BE A LENGTHY BREAK IN THE RAINFALL LATER
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS WE WAIT FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE
INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
IS TOO LOW TO EXPLICITLY DEPICT IN THE FORECAST GRIDS. THE GREATER
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD MOVE THROUGH LATE AFTN/EARLY
EVNG...THEN EXPECT THE FRONT TO SWEEP EASTWARD THIS EVENING AND
BRING AN END TO ANY CONVECTIVE RAINFALL BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL TAKE OVER AND A FEW
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS STILL LOOK POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT IN THE GOLDEN
TRIANGLE REGION WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE LOWER
30S. MONDAY WILL BE A VERY UNCOMFORTABLE DAY WITH BLUSTERY NORTHWEST
WINDS REDUCING WIND CHILL READINGS INTO THE 20S FOR MOST OF THE
MORNING. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER/MID 40S.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
WELL INTO THE 20S MONDAY NIGHT. /EC/

TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...

SEVERAL SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD WITH
SEASONABLY CHILLY TEMPERATURES. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE OVER
THE CWA ON TUESDAY AS OUR NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS LIGHT RAIN
MOVES OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. PRECIPITABLE
WATER WILL GET UP TO AROUND ONE INCH. THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE
ASSOCIATED WITH A GULF SURFACE WAVE WILL CROSS THE REGION ON
THURSDAY.

A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE CWA FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR PHASING OF THESE TWO
SHORTWAVES IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS. IT WILL HAVE ENOUGH COLD AIR IN THE
LOW LEVEL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES BEFORE THE PRECIP MOVES OUT BY
FRIDAY. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE STILL FASTER IN MOVING OUT
THE PRECIP BY THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT THE 00Z ECMWF TRENDED A LITTLE
SLOWER AND HAVE OPTED TO GO TOWARD THE SLOWER GFS SOLUTION. FOR
FRIDAY COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WHICH WILL BRING
DRY WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
COULD DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY. THE COLDEST
MORNING WILL BE EARLY FRIDAY WITH LOWS POSSIBLY DROPPING WELL INTO
THE 20S. /17/

&&

.AVIATION...EARLY MORNING SHOWER ACTIVITY WL SHIFT NE OF THE AREA BY
16Z. ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY WL DEVELOP THIS AFTN AND EVENING
ALONG AND AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. THIS WL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD
MVFR AND OCNL IFR RESTRICTIONS DUE TO CIGS AND VSBY. MUCH DRIER AND
COLDER AIR WL SURGE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. IT APPEARS SOME
STRATOCU MAY LINGER FOR MOST OF THE AREA MONDAY MORNING BUT EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP BY AFTN. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       70  34  41  25 /  92  69   4   0
MERIDIAN      67  37  44  23 /  87  92   6   0
VICKSBURG     70  34  43  26 /  94  44   2   0
HATTIESBURG   70  41  47  27 /  80  61   4   0
NATCHEZ       69  34  43  26 /  90  61   2   0
GREENVILLE    66  30  39  26 /  98  20   2   0
GREENWOOD     66  31  39  24 /  98  31   3   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

EC/17/







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