Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
FXUS64 KJAN 010835
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
335 AM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016
For the Today through Saturday night period, predawn water vapor
imagery and model analysis showed the ArkLaMiss under an upper
trough with northwest flow across the CWA. This feature was around a
subtropical ridge 592 dkm high centered over northwest Mexico. Latest
predawn surface analysis showed a stationary surface front around the
PIB area. Predawn temps were in the middle 60s to lower 70s.
The primary concerns will be the dry weather and temperatures.
For the Today through Saturday night northwest flow will help the
current stationary front to waver across the region through Saturday
night. The upper trough axis will push off to the east as the
flat ridge exerts its influence from the Southern Plains.
The combination of warm heights, strong capping, and warm low to
midlevel temps will aid in dry conditions during the period.
Precipitable water will be from 1-1.5 inches through tonight.
Precipitable water will increase from 1.5 to around 2 inches for
more humid conditions on Saturday. It will once again be less humid
today with dewpoints in the 60s, while on Saturday dewpoints will
creep into the lower 70s in some areas.
As far as temps are concern it will be cool enough to avoid any heat
index concerns through Saturday afternoon. Daily highs will be
mainly in the middle 90s. Lows for tonight will be from the upper
60s to the lower 70s. Lows for Saturday night will be in the lower
to middle 70s. /17/
Warmer than normal temperatures will continue Sunday and
Monday. Ridging surface and aloft will strengthen along the Gulf
coast from the east Sunday resulting in deeper moisture return over
our area however, surface dewpoints look to mix out into the mid to
upper 60s. This will result in lower afternoon relative humidities
than suggested in last night`s model run. Highs will top out again
95- 97F, resulting in peak heat index values of 101-104. Return flow
will help the Gulf sea breeze surge north and the associated
convection may spread into our southern most zones but, most of our
CWA will remain dry. Ridging surface and aloft will hold tough over
the northern Gulf Monday while a shortwave trough swings east across
the the mid Mississippi River valley. Models agree that this
shortwave will help increase rain chances over our northern zones
Monday night and Tuesday. Monday however will be warm and humid. Peak
heat index values of 101-104 are expected again. The shortwave trough
will shift east of our region Tuesday leaving a weak cold front to
stall close to our northeast zones. This front will maintain rain
chances over the northeast until ridging surface and aloft
strengthens back over our CWA Wednesday. Heat and humidity will
increase Thursday and Friday as PWATs climb back to near 2 inches and
afternoon highs reach the mid to upper 90s. /22/
VFR conditions will prevail through Friday evening. Patchy areas of
MVFR category fog will be a possibility, particularly at HBG/MEI.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson 95 72 97 75 / 8 5 6 12
Meridian 95 68 97 74 / 8 5 6 5
Vicksburg 96 70 97 75 / 8 4 6 5
Hattiesburg 97 71 98 75 / 8 7 7 6
Natchez 94 71 95 74 / 8 6 8 7
Greenville 96 72 97 75 / 8 4 7 5
Greenwood 95 71 96 73 / 8 4 7 5