Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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674
FXUS64 KJAN 052114
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
414 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...

OVERALL A QUIET SHORT TERM PERIOD IS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN A NICE
ONE WITH GOOD EFFICIENT MIXING AND DRY AIR AND EXPECT A CLEAR AND
VERY NICE AND CHILLY NIGHT IN STORE. COLD AIR BUILDS DOWN IN THE NW
FLOW REGIME OVER THE REGION. EXPECT THE COLDEST NIGHTS THE NEXT TWO
NIGHTS AS VERY DRY AIR WITH PWATS CURRENTLY BELOW HALF AN INCH ACROSS
THE REGION. EXPECT ANOTHER SURGE OF DRIER AIR SOME FALLING LESS THAN
THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES TO BUILD E/SE INTO THE APPLACHIANS AND NEAR 1020MB SFC HIGH
BUILDS TOWARDS OUR REGION. THIS IS LESS THAN THE 5TH PERCENTILE IN
SOME AREAS SO EXPECT THIS TO LEAD TO COOL TEMPS...POSSIBLY EVEN LOWER
THAN GUIDANCE. THIS WILL BRING SOME TEMPS FALLING OVERNIGHT SOME 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INTO THE LOW 50S IN THE WEST TO MID 40S IN THE
E. WENT NEAR HI-RES GUIDANCE FOR LOWS OVERNIGHT.

AS THE SFC HIGH BUILDS SE AND LONGWAVE TROUGH BUILDS E...OMEGA BLOCK
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BUILD E...LEADING TO H5 HEIGHTS SLOWLY
INCREASING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT GOOD MIXING BUT NOT AS
EFFICIENT AS WINDS WILL SLACKEN SOME FRIDAY AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES
OVER THE SW PORTIONS OF THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS WILL WARM THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND EXPECT HIGHS TO WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S ON FRIDAY TO
LOW/MID 80S ON SATURDAY UNDER CLEAR SKIES. FRIDAY NIGHT COULD BE
COOLER AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES OVER AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING MOVES
OVER SO WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE HI-RES ARW FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE
UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS AND BUILDS E...THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
NRN GULF. THIS WILL HELP TO BRING RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE AND
BEGIN A SLOW INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS. EXPECT WARMER
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S IN THE W. OVERALL A DRY WEEKEND IS
IN STORE. RELEVANT PORTION OF THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION IS ATTACHED.
/DC/

.LONG TERM...

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MID/UPPER PATTERN WILL HAVE BEEN IN A STATE OF TRANSITION EARLY IN
THE PERIOD AS THE OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN WILL HAVE BROKEN DOWN.
LOW/TROF SYSTEM OVER NEW ENGLAND LOOKS TO SHEAR OUT WHILE PERSISTENT
RIDGE OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY WILL HAVE BEGUN TO SHIFT EAST.
BY SUNDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED OVER THE
REGION WITH A MARKED INCREASE IN SURFACE DEWPOINTS FROM THE 40/50S OF
THE PAST DAYS INTO THE 60S BY SUNDAY.

MID LEVEL SW FLOW AND THE APPROACH OF A SHORTWAVE WILL MEAN A RETURN
TO CONVECTION OVER THE REGION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE ABSENCE OF
ANY LOW LEVEL FEATURE WITH THIS WAVE WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
TO NO MORE THAN SCATTERED. WHILE LAPSE RATES AT PRESENT ARE QUASI-
MOIST ADIABATIC WITH CAPES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG...OF CONCERN WILL
BE THE 20-30 KNOTS OF LOW LEVEL AND 30-40 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
THIS WOULD INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZATION FOR AREAS MAINLY
WEST OF THE MS RIVER MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WILL NEED TO WATCH
FUTURE DATA FOR TRENDS WITH THIS POSSIBILITY. /26/DC/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE GUSTY
NW TO N WINDS THIS AFTN WL BECOME LIGHTER THIS EVNG AND REMAIN 10KTS
OR LESS FRIDAY. /22/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       47  76  51  85 /   0   0   0   1
MERIDIAN      44  76  48  83 /   0   0   0   1
VICKSBURG     50  77  53  84 /   0   0   0   1
HATTIESBURG   46  77  48  85 /   0   0   0   1
NATCHEZ       50  76  53  82 /   0   0   0   1
GREENVILLE    50  75  55  82 /   0   0   0   1
GREENWOOD     47  76  53  82 /   0   0   0   1

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DC/26/22



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