Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 271002
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
402 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS TODAY AS STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION KEEPS TEMPERATURES COOL. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM NEAR
FREEZING IN THE DELTA TO THE UPPER 40S IN HATTIESBURG. ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT IS ON TAP FOR TONIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING BACK INTO THE 20S AND
LOW 30S.

THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SHIFT TO THE
EAST COAST ON SATURDAY AND THIS WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE FLOW TO
BECOME MORE EASTERLY AND THUS MORE NEUTRAL ADVECTION AND WITH SOME
SUN...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60 IN THE SOUTH.
THE SURFACE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
WITH INCREASING MOISTURE A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY
MORNING. LOWS WILL ALSO BE WARMER RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE
DELTA TO NEAR 50 IN THE SOUTH./15/

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...RAIN CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH
TUESDAY. SUNDAY MORNING THE LARGE >1040MB SURFACE HIGH WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD RESULTING IN A WEAK RETURN
FLOW OVER OUR CWA. A LARGE CLOSED LOW WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH OVER
CALIFORNIA INDUCING MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE GULF COAST STATES.
THIS WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AND A SLOW INCREASE IN DEEP
MOISTURE SUNDAY. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT TO SUPPORT A FEW
SHOWERS SUNDAY AIDED BY A WEAK SHORTWAVE IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. MODELS SUGGEST SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVER OUR SOUTHWEST
TO PRODUCE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ALSO SUNDAY A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL RACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL HELP SUPPORT A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL
DROP A WEAKENING COLD FRONT INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT
SUNDAY NIGHT PROLONGING RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY OUR FLOW
ALOFT WILL BACK MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST AS THE CLOSED LOW OPENS UP
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND STALL AS IT
QUICKLY LOOSES ITS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THE STALLED FRONT WILL SERVE
TO FOCUS CONVECTION INTO TUESDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT. DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH TUESDAY STILL
LOOKING LIKE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WHERE AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL CLIMB UP INTO THE 70S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON PWS WILL BE BACK NEAR AN INCH AND THREE QUARTERS WITH
SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MID ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE STALLED FRONT.
THE WARM MOIST AIRMASS WILL SPREAD OVER THE WHOLE AREA BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT. TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE DOWN THE WESTERN CONUS AND SUPPORT A
SECOND SURFACE LOW THAT TRACK NORTHEAST AND DROP ANOTHER COLD FRONT
INTO OUR CWA WEDNESDAY. THE CANADIAN AND GFS ARE FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF IN BRINGING THE COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI BY NOON
THEN SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA BY EVENING. MODELS SHOW HEAVIEST QPF POST
FRONTAL WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT MLCAPE APPROACHES 1000J/KG IN A
STRONGLY SHEARED(ALTHOUGH UNIDIRECTIONAL) ENVIRONMENT ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LOOK POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF OUR
CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE MEAN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN LINGERING OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS SINCE
THE WEEKEND WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
HELPING TO BRING A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS TO THE REGION.
THERE ARE LARGE STANDARD DEVIATIONS IN THE GFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BUT A RETURN TO COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH BELOW FREEZING MORNING LOWS LOOK TO BE
INSTORE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT MOST TAF SITES THIS MORNING AND
THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. EXPECT JAN/HKS/MEI/HBG
TO BECOME VFR BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT PERSISTANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE MAY KEEP MVFR CONDITIONS AT GWO/GLH/GTR THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. THE WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY 7-10KTS THROUGH MOST
OF THE PERIOD BECOMING EASTERLY BY EARLY SATURDAY./15/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       44  30  58  46 /   2   6   8  16
MERIDIAN      46  28  57  45 /   3   4   8  16
VICKSBURG     40  29  56  46 /   4  10   8  16
HATTIESBURG   49  31  61  48 /   4   4   7  16
NATCHEZ       45  30  60  49 /   3   7   8  16
GREENVILLE    33  26  50  39 /   6  12  10  16
GREENWOOD     36  26  53  41 /   4   9  10  16

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

15/MME/




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