Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Chicago, IL

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639
FXUS63 KLOT 220941
AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
341 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2018

.SHORT TERM...
324 AM CST

Today through Friday...

Main near term concerns focus on light precip trends today,
particularly with type over the southern cwa early this morning
where light rain/freezing rain is possible. A more substantial
wave brings the potential for moderate QPF amounts late tonight,
with 0.20-0.30" of unneeded rainfall possible across the
southeastern part of the cwa.

Surface cold front which moved across the area Tuesday evening
has become stationary south of the Ohio River, though the 925-850
mb baroclinic zone associated with the elevated frontal zone
lingers across MO-IL-IN. Very light precipitation has been
occurring just south/southeast of the LOT cwa so far overnight,
though an approaching mid-level short wave from the south-central
Plains will result in veering flow, and increasing ascent across
the frontal zone this morning. Recent regional radar mosaic
imagery depicts an increase in returns into western/central IL in
association, and high-res guidance suggests this should continue
to expand into the far southern parts of the cwa over the next few
hours. Warm air aloft, as indicated by 850 mb temps near +2C.
This would support a liquid precipitation type per forecast
soundings, though surface temps across the southern tier of
counties is currently 31-34 degrees which would present a freezing
rain threat. Fortunately, clouds and breezy northeast winds have
held temps fairly steady, even rising a degree or two overnight,
which should help limit the impact of any freezing precip. Diurnal
temp rise after sunrise should bring an end to the freezing rain
threat fairly quickly. With limited areal coverage and marginal
temps, unless conditions change significantly am planning on going
without an advisory headline, and will handle with a special
weather statement and graphical messaging. Farther to the west,
precipitation across Nebraska/Iowa and spreading into southwestern
Wisconsin in regional radar mosaic is progged to fill in a bit
across northwestern IL this morning, with high-res guidance
brining some of this lighter precip into north central IL. Cooler
thermal column in that area should support some light snow
initially, but quickly changing over to light rain as surface
temps rise. None of the precip during the day today is expected to
amount to much, with model QPF mainly just trace amounts to a
couple of hundredths of an inch.

Energy currently rounding the base of the western CONUS upper
trough is then progged to lift northeast across the Plains
tonight, and into the western Great Lakes area by Friday morning.
Surface low pressure associated with this wave tracks into the
Upper Mississippi Valley by 6 am Friday, with low level warm/moist
advection developing into the forecast area as low level winds
turn southeasterly ahead of the low and occluding cold front. This
looks to be a more significant precip producer, with several
models developing a swath of 0.75-1.00"+ rainfall amounts across
central IL and IN. Two to three tenths of rain are possible across
the southeastern WFO LOT cwa, which obviously needs no more
rainfall after impressively heavy totals earlier in the week. The
good news is that it looks like temps will generally be above
freezing for the duration of the event, with the possible
exception of this evening over northwest IL where readings around
32-33F are possible. Thus the threat of freezing rain appears
pretty low.

Rain is expected to end quickly Friday morning behind the cold
front, with weak high pressure ridging across the Upper Midwest by
Friday afternoon/evening. Southern counties may tag 50 degrees,
while the remainder of the area still above average with highs in
the low to mid 40`s.

Ratzer

&&

.LONG TERM...
341 AM CST

Friday night through Wednesday...

Main focus in the longer term portion of the forecast is on the
quick return of rain to the forecast area Friday night through
Saturday night. Another swath of heavy rainfall is possible across
central IL/IN during this period, with the southeastern counties
of the LOT cwa again picking up 0.50-1.00"+ inch rainfall amounts
by the time precip ends just before sunrise Sunday morning.

Brief lull in precipitation should be ongoing Friday evening,
with weak surface high pressure ridging centered across the Upper
Mississippi Valley. Precipitation threat returns overnight
however, as the remnants of the western CONUS trough kicks out
across into the Plains as a strong mid-level trough. Resulting
return flow again develops warm/moist advection across the stalled
frontal zone to our south, with ascent increasing during the day
Saturday as the wave approaches and surface low pressure deepens
to our west. Guidance depicts 1.00"+ precipitable water being
pulled north across the warm front, setting the stage for
additional moderate/heavy rainfall. The surface low passes just
northwest of the forecast area during the pre-dawn hours of Sunday
morning, with the cold front quickly moving through the forecast
area and cutting off precipitation. Guidance varies a bit with
rainfall totals at this distance, though general amounts of a
quarter to a half inch are depicted over the northern parts of the
FA, while a half to in excess of an inch are produced across the
southeast. Combined with rain from Thursday night into early
Friday, this will likely at least slow the fall of river levels
which are already in flood, and could result in new rises if the
heavier end of QPF amounts are realized.

Things look to quiet down a bit Sunday through Tuesday, with a
welcome period of dry, mild weather expected, as the weekend
system finally pushes the frontal zone well south of the area.
Upper flow remains generally west-southwesterly through the period
however, with another chance for precip toward mid-week.

Ratzer

&&

.AVIATION...
For the 06Z TAFs...

High pressure is in place north of the terminals overnight
resulting in northeast winds and VFR conditions. Meanwhile,
across downstate Illinois, widespread IFR/MVFR conditions are in
place long with areas of rain. Some of the precipitation will
spread north through the morning and afternoon Thursday as an
elevated warm front lifts across the region. Couldn`t rule out a
few light showers or sprinkles at the terminals during the
afternoon Thursday, but better chances come Thursday evening/night
as a disorganized area of low pressure lifts across the region
transporting some of the lower moisture northward. Conditions will
likely fall to MVFR and eventually IFR overnight with periods of
rain possible Thursday night. Northeast winds will veer to the
east Thursday afternoon and to the southeast Thursday
evening/night.

BMD

&&

.MARINE...
304 AM CST

High pressure lies over northern Lake Michigan early this morning
with relatively light flow in place across the northern portions
of the lake, and a fresh northeast to easterly breeze in place
across the south end of the lake. A broad and disorganized low
will lift across the Upper Midwest this evening and tonight
resulting in winds veering to the southeast and increasing to
around 30 kt, strongest over the south end of the lake. Winds
continue to veer around the dial, westerly on Friday, then
easterly again Saturday as another low begins to deepen over the
Central Plains. This deeper low will lift across the Upper Midwest
Saturday night when south gales are expected. Gales continue out
of the west on Sunday as the low lifts to James Bay.

BMD

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
IN...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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