Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Chicago, IL

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FXUS63 KLOT 190727

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
227 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

222 AM CDT

Through tonight...

Early this morning, a shortwave trough is lifting across the
Midwest while a weak surface low is located over west central
Illinois. Showers and a few thunderstorms will continue this
morning out ahead of these features. HRRR has had a decent handle
on conditions overnight and have leaned heavily on the latest
runs for timing PoPs through the remainder of the morning. Expect
most of the area to be dry by mid to late this morning with
perhaps a few showers hanging on over northwest Indiana by early
afternoon, if any at all. Mid/upper level height rises overspread
the region behind the departing trough helping to erode the cloud
cover through the afternoon. Expect afternoon highs in the mid
70s east to around 80 west. Temperatures along the lake front will
be held in the low 70s with onshore flow through the day.



222 AM CDT

Wednesday through Monday...

Transient upper ridge will traverse the region midweek with a more
blocky and amplified pattern developing late in the week and
continuing through early next week resulting in a warm pattern
throughout much of the extended time frame.

On Wednesday, closed upper low will be in place over the Pacific
Northwest with a lead shortwave ejecting east across the northern
Plains. Out ahead of the this feature, deep southerly flow will help
transport high theta-e air all the way north across the Great Plains
and into the Canadian Prairies. The thermal ridge axis with 850mb
temperatures of 19-20C will advect east across the local area
Wednesday contributing to very warm surface temperatures
accompanied by high dewpoints. Afternoon highs on Wednesday are
expected to be in the mid to upper 80s and a few spots may tag 90.
Meanwhile, dewpoints are expected to rise to around 70 resulting
in muggy conditions.

Wednesday night into Thursday looks to bring the best chance for any
precipitation over the area as the aforementioned upper level
disturbance lifts from the Upper Midwest into Canada while an weak
surface cold front pushes east across the Mississippi Valley. Models
are a bit mixed on how far east and south to bring precipitation
with this front, and for now would err on the drier end of the
spectrum given how far displaced we are from the upper wave and
forcing along the front may struggle to overcome warm mid level air
and capping. Moderately strong instability will be in place to
support thunderstorm development, though, if forcing ends up being

Meanwhile, the upper low over the Pacific Northwest is progged to
dig into the Intermountain West Wednesday through Friday with
further downstream amplification of the ridge expected to occur.
Friday through the weekend the pattern becomes very blocky with the
local area falling on the western periphery of a strong upper
ridge. While widespread convection is possible off to our west, it
looks like northern Illinois and northwest Indiana will remain
close enough to the ridge axis to stay primarily dry with
continued unseasonably warm temperatures.



For the 06Z TAFs...

Rain showers will continue to shift northeast and impact the
terminals early this morning. I have high confidence in measurable
rainfall at all of the eastern terminals, but medium confidence in
measurable precip at RFD. Lightning will stay south of the
terminals as should lower cigs. MVFR cigs are being reported at
PNT and Morris, IL, but thinking the better saturation and lower
cigs will remain south of the terminals. Showers push east this
morning and low end VFR cigs will hang around through the day.
Winds will be northeast to east winds at less than 10 kt.

Clouds scatter out this evening and winds become southeast as the
high pushes east. Guidance suggests MVFR or lower cigs and vsby
could occur tonight, but thinking the models are too saturated.
Kept conditions VFR tonight.



222 AM CDT

High pressure over Quebec will continue northeast. East winds
become southeast tonight, and speeds increase to 15-
25 kt as the pressure gradient tightens over the lake Wednesday.
High pressure passes over Lake Superior Thursday, and winds will
become north briefly as the high passes by.  Southerly winds return
across the lake Friday and remain through early next week due to the
blocky pattern. A high pressure ridge remains stationary over the
eastern half of the U.S. while a low pressure trough extends from
the northern Mississippi Valley to the southern Plains through early
next week.






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