Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS63 KLOT 181908

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
208 PM CDT Mon Sep 18 2017

219 AM CDT

Through tonight...

High pressure will build across the western Great Lakes today
while the cold front that passed over the region yesterday
settles over the Ohio Valley. East to northeast flow will help
temper afternoon highs today, especially near Lake Michigan where
onshore flow will keep temperatures only in the low 70s. Farther
inland expect afternoon highs in the mid to upper 70s.

Meanwhile, a shortwave trough lifting across the central Great
Plains this morning will lift across the mid Mississippi Valley
this evening, crossing the river around 00Z. Expect increasing
cloud cover out ahead of the wave late this afternoon and evening,
and there is a chance for showers and thunderstorms this evening
and tonight. Have backed off on PoPs before 00Z given the later
forcing and initially dry low/mid levels that will be hard to
overcome by the weak forcing. Also lowered PoPs some the evening
and overnight, especially north of the I-88 corridor, given the
less favorable diurnal timing. Much better chances will be well to
our west on the nose of the low level jet over the mid Missouri
Valley overnight.



207 PM CDT

Tuesday night through Monday...

As the active weather continues out west thanks to a
strong upper level jet stream and deep upper trough, the midwest
will remain on the warm and drier side of things as the strong
upper jet will dig the backside of the upstream trough and
amplify the upper flow in our area, though there will be period of
showers and storms at least close by if not in some areas for a
few days.

Tuesday night, weak upper ridging will develop, while a strong low
level jet will stir up convection to our west. This ridge appears
like it will amplify some as this convection nears, and with the
main upper forcing expected to shift northward with the surface
low, the convection will likely be in a decaying state as it gets
close to the area. Have to hold onto some lower precip chances
across north central IL Wednesday morning. PWATs and dewpoints
soar to summer like levels with unimpeded south-southwest flow.
Any debris cloud cover may cap temps a bit, but otherwise
Wednesday will be warm and humid.

Storms may again initiate to our northwest ahead of a cold front
Wednesday afternoon. With the high PWAT air in place and the low
level jet expected to flare back up to our west Wednesday night,
there is a bit better chance that some of these may get into the
area late Wednesday, but model guidance is still trying to hold
onto the ridge. We will continue the highest storm chances during
this period of time (Wed night - Thurs morning) for this
potential, but still only in the chance range, and much lower the
farther east you may be.

If we get a bit more convection or the front sags south like the
NAM shows, Thurs could start with some stratus northeast, but will
continue with the global models idea that this remains
north. After this point the moisture convergence axis will shift
even farther north and west as the deep western upper low will dig
into the four corners region through the weekend, and we will
remain well under the strong ridge. No precipitation is expected
with continued well above normal temperatures through the 80s.
The most uncomfortable air will be Thursday-Friday, with some
decrease in dewpoints through the weekend, but still very warm.
The pattern will lend itself to some cooling right near the IL
lakeshore each day. KMD


For the 18Z TAFs...

Quiet weather is expected across the area for the rest of today,
with only some high level clouds shifting over the region.
Otherwise, expect the winds to remain easterly 6 to 9 KT through
the afternoon.

The chances for a period of showers, and perhaps an embedded
thunderstorm, will increase across the area late this evening as
an upper level disturbance approaches the area. The best timing
for this activity looks to be from around 06-07Z through around
11Z. Otherwise, expect the possibility for a period of lower
CIGs, possibly down into the MVFR range, very late tonight into
early Tuesday morning.



207 PM CDT

Once high pressure north of Lake Michigan shifts east to
Quebec, its associated ridge axis will remain in place across the
eastern third of the country through the remainder of the week. A
A series of low pressure systems will form across the plains, but
with the high in place, most of these will track north and west of
the lake, resulting in an extended period of southerly winds. The
pressure gradient will tighten at times when these lows pass by to
the north, with occasional winds up to 25 kt, generally less. KMD





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