Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 211155

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
655 AM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Sun Aug 21 2016

Main forecast concerns for today will be cloud cover, then focus
turns to patchy fog in river valley locations late tonight into
early Monday morning.

Upper level trough will pivot across the region today brining
scattered cloud cover to the area. We should see a fairly well
developed cumulus field late this morning into this afternoon. A
few sprinkles are possible at times, especially along and
northeast of the Interstate 94 corridor. Highs will once again be
on the cool side ranging from the upper 60s to lower 70s. High
pressure builds into the region tonight providing clear skies.
Light winds near the surface and clear skies will allow for the
development of patchy fog, mainly in tributaries to the
Mississippi River and over central Wisconsin Cranberry Country.
Winds just above the surface through 3 kft remain in the 12 to 15
kt range through the night. This should promote enough mixing to
prevent widespread dense fog from forming in the main channel of
the Mississippi River.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Sun Aug 21 2016

Main forecast concerns in the long term are on shower and
thunderstorm chances mainly Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Southerly winds will be on the increase on Monday as high
pressure exits to the east and a trough develops over the central
plains. Afternoon wind gusts of 30 to 35 mph are possible across
open areas, mainly over northeast Iowa and southeast Minnesota.

A shortwave trough lifts into the region Tuesday night into
Wednesday as a cold front approaches from the west. Showers and
thunderstorms look to overspread the region. Fairly strong 850
moisture transport noted late Tuesday night. Also, precipitable
water values climb into the 1.5 to 2 inch range with warm cloud
depth of 4 km. Any thunderstorms should be efficient rain
producers. Precipitation chances are in the high chance to likely
range but if trends continue will have to increase these
substantially over the next day or two. The cold front then swings
through later in the day on Wednesday and looks to stall out
Wednesday evening over eastern Iowa into central Wisconsin. We may
see additional showers and storms along the front Wednesday night
into early Thursday morning as another shortwave moves through.
Again, some of the storms could be efficient rain producers with
warm cloud depths right around 4 km across portions of northeast
Iowa and southern Wisconsin.

After highs climbing into the lower to mid 80s on Tuesday, we then
slip back into a slightly cooler pattern with for the last half of
the work week with highs mainly in the 70s. Chance for showers and
thunderstorms return Saturday as another trough slides through.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 651 AM CDT Sun Aug 21 2016

A trough over central Wisconsin will continue to keep a MVFR deck
of clouds across much of western Wisconsin this morning. KLSE is
on the western edge of these clouds so just included a scattered
2K deck of clouds there.

With diurnal heating this afternoon expect a scattered to broken
4 to 6K deck of clouds at both TAF sites. These clouds will
dissipate rapidly this evening with the loss of diurnal heating.


.HYDROLOGY...Through Tuesday
Issued at 315 AM CDT Sun Aug 21 2016

Recent heavy rains across the area have led to minor flooding
along portions of the Trempealeau River. A River Flood Warning
remains in effect for the Trempealeau River at Dodge.


.ARX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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