Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 201115

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
615 AM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016

The cloud forecast for today and tonight is fairly complicated. We
will see the mid and high clouds in the southern and eastern
portions of the forecast area moving east out of the area this
morning as the short wave trough currently over southeast
Minnesota and northeast Iowa move east toward the Great Lakes. As
this is occurring, instability clouds associated with the cold air
mass aloft will be spreading southward. The lowest clouds will
likely remain north of Interstate 90 today. These clouds will then
spread south across southern Wisconsin tonight. There may be even
some lake effect clouds in central and eastern Wisconsin.
Additional warm air advection clouds (currently over the eastern
Dakotas) will move east into southeast Minnesota, northeast Iowa,
and western Wisconsin after midnight. Due to these clouds, I am
bit hesitant issuing a Frost Advisory at this time. Even though
the Advisory was not issued, still left a mention of frost in the

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016

On Friday night, a warm front will move east through the area.
Other than some clouds and a shift in the wind direction no other
sensible weather is anticipated with this front. Temperatures will
moderate through the weekend. High temperatures for the weekend will
range from the mid 50s to mid 60s. However there are some hints in
the guidance that the temperatures on Sunday afternoon may be too
cool. This is due an increase in the southwest winds aloft and a 2
to 4C increase in the 925 mb temperatures. Both of these are a
result of the low pressure area moving to our north along the
US/Canadian border.

The next chance of rain looks to be from Tuesday into Wednesday
night as a low pressure area moves east through the region. If the
current southern track verifies, may have to cool the high
temperatures some.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 615 AM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016

A batch of MVFR clouds will continue sinking south across both LSE
and RST through mid to late morning (14-16Z) before thinning and
likely redeveloping into more of a diurnal cumulus cloud field
into the afternoon. It is possible that ceilings may go broken for
a time at LSE, though by that time cloud heights look to return to
VFR levels. We will be watching additional stratocumulus clouds
perhaps scraping LSE into tonight as well with winds today in the
10-15 knot range subsiding once again toward sunset.




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