


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI
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793 FXUS63 KARX 270534 AFDARX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 1234 AM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Today, severe thunderstorms possible again this afternoon, with a few tornadoes & heavy rain as the primary threats. Please stay weather aware in case watches and warnings are issued for your area. - This weekend, another round of strong to severe storms possible Saturday night into Sunday. - Next week, drier conditions are expected across the region. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1246 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 TODAY...the main concern this afternoon into this evening is the another round of thunderstorms capable of producing a few tornadoes, as well as heavy rain and the potential for flooding. Please stay weather aware in case watches and warnings are issued for your area. An upper level wave was located across the Missouri River Valley, with precipitation downstream of the trough axis across the eastern Dakotas and Minnesota. Late morning satellite imagery with a RAP surface analysis showed a surface low approaching western Iowa, with mostly clear skies and easterly winds ahead of it. A warm front was becoming better defined near I-90, and this will set the stage for another severe weather threat this afternoon. By early this afternoon, instability around 2000 to 3000 j/kg will be in place south of this warm front, and the aforementioned upper level trough be enough lift to develop storms. In addition, the veered wind profile along the warm front will be favorable for rotating storms. Forecast sounding show nearly 300 m2/s2 of 0-2km helicity, along with low cloud bases. The combination of instability and wind shear should lead to at least a few storms capable of producing tornadoes. The Storm Prediction Center has lifted the severe weather outlook northward, and now the slight risk and tornado threat are centered across the local area. In addition to the severe threat, heavy rain will also accompany these storms, and if storms were to track across the same region, then amounts in excess of 3 inches would be possible. A flash flood watch was issued for counties along and near I-90. The timing for these storms are this afternoon and evening, with storms expected to be east of the region by midnight tonight. TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...Rain will exit the region overnight, but forecast soundings show low clouds lingering through Friday morning, before clearing out later in the day as weak high pressure builds across the region. On Friday night storms will develop over the Dakotas, but they should fall part before the reach the tri-state area. By Saturday, southerly flow will return across the region, with hot and humid conditions expected over the weekend. Additional thunderstorm chances are possible Saturday night, and again Sunday into Sunday night. The instability and shear profiles would once again support strong to severe storms. Looking ahead, the current southwest flow of the jet stream will transition to zonal flow this weekend, and eventually northwest flow next week. That will bring in some drier air, with dewpoints, back in the lower 60s. Temperatures will be slightly above the seasonal average for early July, with highs in the lower 80s. This pattern favors drier weather, but cant completely rule out and precipitation, so have generally 10 to 20 percent chances in the forecast. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1233 AM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025 Mostly dry conditions are expected through the TAF period as the main line of storms from today is now fully into central Wisconsin, although some isolated showers are possible along a cold front moving eastward through the upper Mississippi River Valley (generally 20-30%) through about 12z. IFR to LIFR ceilings remain in place overnight into Friday morning, but low ceilings begin to lift and scatter out Friday afternoon. Mist/fog is also possible tonight into the morning hours with visibilities of around 1-3SM based on observations in central Minnesota. Winds will be generally from the south for much of the area ahead of the cold front, becoming northwesterly across the entire area by 14z. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JRB AVIATION...Falkinham