Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 150454

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1154 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Issued at 207 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Showers are expanding across the area this afternoon in response
to increasing broadscale lift ahead of a vigorous mid-level trough
(per GOES Water Vapor) pushing southeast out of the Dakotas. At
the surface, low pressure was becoming better organized over the
Central Plains. Otherwise, temperatures across the area this
afternoon were in the 50s.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 207 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Strengthening area of low pressure will lift northeast across the
area tonight, reaching Lake Huron by daybreak Sunday. Latest
RAP/NAM low track keeps warm sector/better cape for severe storm
potential southeast of the area but could be a very brief window
of opportunity for a few stronger storms southeast of a
Mauston/Richland Center/Lancaster WI line as this area will be on
the cusp of the warm sector along with ample 0-3km bulk shear.
Therefore, will not let our guard down and will maintain a close
eye on strong to severe storm potential down that way. Otherwise,
looks like another good dousing of rain for the area with
generally 1/2 to 2 inches expected, highest across far northeast
IA into far southwest WI (see the Hydrology section below).
Another facet of this strong storm system will be gusty northwest
winds on the backside of the low after midnight into early Sunday
morning. We will likely see sustained winds of 15-25 mph with
gusts around 40 mph in the higher bluff country of southwest WI
and typical open/wind- prone areas of southeast MN/northeast IA.

Deformation area showers look to continue through mid Sunday
morning north of I-94, exiting east as the low quickly pulls into
western Quebec. Otherwise, looks like skies will be clearing from
west to east during the afternoon as high pressure builds in from
Plains. Plan on highs in the 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 207 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Main concern will be early on as areas of frost is expected late
Sunday night into early Monday morning as lows dip into the 30s
with light winds/clear skies.

The rest of the work week looks tranquil/pleasant with a ridge of
high pressure building over the central CONUS. Look for highs
starting off cooler than normal Monday but then warming to well
above normal by weeks end. A chance of showers creeps in Saturday
as a cold front pushes in from the Northern Plains.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1154 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

The area of low pressure at the surface was over south central
Wisconsin late this evening and will continue to move
east/northeast away from the area overnight. All the showers ahead
of the low are now well off to the east while the deformation
showers were moving east across Minnesota. These showers are not
quite as wide spread as earlier expected and should primarily move
by to the north of both airports. Still expecting some additional
showers to move across but with little to no visibility
restrictions expected. Primarily IFR ceilings across the area will
remain into Sunday morning before lifting to MVFR as some drier
works in and then up to VFR during the afternoon before scattering
out. Still expecting the winds to increase overnight out of the
northwest with gusts to around 30 knots before diminishing after
sunrise Sunday. The winds may not be quite as strong as the latest
forecast soundings from the 15.00Z NAM and 15.03Z RAP show rising
motion through the low level steep lapse rates when the winds
aloft are the strongest and by the time subsidence sets in, the
winds speeds aloft are already diminishing. Because of this,
capped the gusts at KLSE at 28 knots and KRST at 32-33 knots.


.HYDROLOGY...Through Tonight
Issued at 207 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Localized flooding is possible across portions of far northeast
Iowa into far southwest Wisconsin through this evening. Strong
thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across this
area with the potential for heavy rainfall of 1 to locally 3
inches. Clayton and Grant counties have the highest chances of
seeing this heavier rainfall. It appears the main flood threat
will be south and east of the area across northern Illinois into
southeast Wisconsin where a Flash Flood Watch is in effect into




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