Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 030748
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
245 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A CLOSED LOW OVER
CENTRAL ONTARIO CANADA WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER/GREAT LAKES REGIONS. AT THE
SURFACE...THE COLD FRONT THAT GAVE PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN
WISCONSIN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING NOW
EXTENDING FROM SOUTH OF CHICAGO THROUGH NORTHERN MISSOURI.
MEANWHILE...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WAS WORKING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER REGION. THIS
WAS RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOLER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPERATURES AT 2 AM RANGING FROM THE UPPER
50S/LOWER 60S NORTH OF I-90...TO THE MIDDLE 60S/LOWER 70S SOUTH OF I-
90.

CYCLONIC MID/UPPER FLOW PRODUCES SOME CUMULUS/SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN TODAY INTO TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...PLAN ON
DRIER/COOLER CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
IN THE 10-15MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH TODAY...SUBSIDING BELOW
10 MPH TONIGHT. HIGHS TODAY WILL TOP OFF IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO THE
LOWER 80S WITH LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
SAND COUNTRY OF CENTRAL WI...TO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH CYCLONIC FLOW SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA. A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH DIVES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN IA/NORTHERN MO
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...SURFACE HIGH ACROSS
THE AREA LOOKS TO KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION SOUTH. RESULT WILL BE SOME
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUD/BLOW OFF FROM THIS ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH.
OTHERWISE...PLAN ON COOLER/SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

MEDIUM RANGE ECMWF/GFS MODELS SHOW SEVERAL MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES
TOPPING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND HEADING INTO
THE AREA FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THESE
WAVES ARE STILL DEBATABLE WITH MODEL CONSENSUS GIVING THE AREA
GENERALLY 20-40 PERCENT POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOPEFULLY WE CAN
HONE IN ON BETTER TIMING PLACEMENT OF SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES WITH
THE NEXT COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS. OTHERWISE...APPEARS TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS STUCK IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

HIGH PRESSURE STARTING TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT
PASSED THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHER THAN SOME PASSING MID
LEVEL CLOUDS TONIGHT...SKIES LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE CLEAR THROUGH
THE PERIOD. ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT MONDAY FOR THE NORTHWEST WINDS TO
BE SUSTAINED IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE. COULD BE A FEW GUSTS BUT
NOT EXPECTING THESE TO BE MUCH MORE THAN 5 OR 6 KNOTS ABOVE THE
SUSTAINED WINDS. THESE WINDS WILL THEN SETTLE DOWN QUICKLY MONDAY
EVENING.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...04



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