Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 160923
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
321 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 321 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

Warm-up starts today. Currently, a warm front extended through the
Dakotas into western IA with scattered to broken warm air advection
mid/high clouds moving southeastward across the forecast area.
Otherwise...temperatures early this morning were in the middle 20s
to near 30.

Middle/upper level ridge of high pressure builds east over the
Central CONUS today into Friday. Increasing compressional heating
under this ridge, along with surface warm air advection and ample
sunshine, will boost high temperatures well into the 30s/40s today
and upper 40s to near 60 on Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 321 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

Unseasonably warm temperatures are on tap through the weekend into
Monday with highs some 20-30 degrees above normal. Saturday looks to
be the coolest of the days with a weak cold frontal passage while
Monday looks to be the warmest in advance of a stronger cold front
marching east out the the Northern Plains.

Rain will become likely by Monday afternoon as that cold front
pushes into the region. Instability looks rather limited at this
time, so kept out any mention of thunder at this point.

Looks a little cooler for Tuesday into Wednesday with slight rain
chances, but temperatures will remain well above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1125 PM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

VFR conditions set to continue the next 24 hours with residual mid
level clouds east of the Mississippi River departing the next few
hours as some thicker bouts of cirrus push overhead at times.
Winds remain light at the moment, but will increase from the
southeast at 10-18 knots (highest at RST) through the day before
subsiding once again this evening.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 321 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

Well above normal temperatures Thursday through Tuesday will put a
major hurt on or get rid of whatever snowpack is left across the
area. This snowmelt combined with a frozen layer of ground is
expected to runoff into area streams and rivers. No flooding is
expected at this time but within bank rises are likely along with
the potential for a few ice jams due to ice break-up. Those with
interests along streams and rivers will want to keep up with the
latest forecasts.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 321 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

Temperatures will be some 20 to 30 degrees above normal Friday
through Monday.

Here are some record highs and record high lows for La Crosse and
Rochester for Friday February the through Monday February the the:


                          Record Highs
                          ------------

             La Crosse                     Rochester

            -----------                   -----------

Fri (17th)    64/1981        Fri (17th)     63/1981
Sat (18th)    64/1981        Sat (18th)     60/1981
Sun (19th)    59/1930        Sun (19th)     59/1930
Mon (20th)    61/1930        Mon (20th)     60/1930


                        Record High Lows
                        ----------------

Fri (17th)    41/1981        Fri (17th)     35/1981
Sat (18th)    38/1981        Sat (18th)     37/1954
Sun (19th)    38/2002        Sun (19th)     36/2002
Mon (20th)    41/1930        Mon (20th)     34/1954

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION.....Lawrence
HYDROLOGY....DAS



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