Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 010855
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
255 AM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 255 AM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

Some light precip/drizzle will remain possible through the
morning within cyclonic flow aloft, but coverage should gradually
decrease as the upper low pulls away. Otherwise, temps today will
be quite similar to yesterday given a similar air mass, with very
little temp rise expected through the day under overcast skies.
Through tonight 925 mb temps do show some modest cooling, but
persistent clouds tonight may inhibit temps from tumbling too far.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 255 AM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

Dry weather with seasonable temps are expected Friday and Saturday
as high pressure builds southeastward across the Mississippi Valley
behind the departing upper low. However, NAM RH profiles suggest clouds
will remain stubborn into Saturday.

Our next weather system will arrive by Saturday Night as a progressive
upper shortwave trough moves across the region bringing light precip
across the area. Precip type will be dependent on low-level
thermal profiles and time of day, likely beginning as snow and
possibly mixing with or changing to rain during the day on Sunday.
Any snow accumulations should be light.

By early next week a longwave trough will deepen over the western CONUS,
setting up a potentially more active southwest flow pattern downstream
across the Midwest. Recent model runs over the past 24 hours have continued
to show substantial variability in the evolution of the trough through
the middle of next week, limiting forecast confidence. At this point,
though, the Tue-Wed period appears to offer the highest precip chances,
as one or more upper waves rotating through the eastward progressing
longwave trough lift across the region. In addition to the precip
chances, global models do agree that a strong push of colder air
will follow for sometime mid to late next week, depending on the
timing of the trough across the region, with temps falling below
average.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1159 PM CST Wed Nov 30 2016

The trough of low pressure continues to work east across the area
this evening but the precipitation with it has been slowly
dissipating as the main short wave trough moves off to the east of
the region. This trend will continue overnight and with the
remaining precipitation not amounting to anything more than
sprinkles, do not plan to include this in either forecast.
Ceilings are primarily IFR except for the valley locations where
they are MVFR. Again, little if any change expected until Thursday
morning when some weak diurnal heating should allow these to
slowly rise. Even with increasing heights, KRST could end up
sitting right around 1000 feet for much of the afternoon and
evening.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...04



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