Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 140906
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
306 AM CST Tue Feb 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 306 AM CST Tue Feb 14 2017

Surface map this morning had a cold front extending from eastern
Upper Michigan through eastern Wisconsin. Post frontal westerly
winds in place across the area with clear skies. Temperatures as of
2 am were in the lower to middle 30s.

For today, a mid-level trough and secondary surface cold front drops
southward through the area this afternoon. This will produce an
increase in cumulus across the area with a slight chance of snow
showers mainly along and northeast of the I-94 corridor. Look for
temperatures to climb into the mid 30s/lower 40s ahead of the cold
front. Otherwise, it will be breezy today with winds increasing out
of the northwest into the 15 to 25 mph range with gusts of 30-35
mph.

Chillier cyclonic flow will be over the area for Wednesday into
Wednesday night with highs in the mid 20/lower 30s and lows in the
teens to lower 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 306 AM CST Tue Feb 14 2017

Thursday marks the beginning of a warm-up that will last through the
weekend into Monday.

Models remain in good agreement in digging a deep trough of low
pressure off the west coast which then in turn amplifies a
downstream mid-level ridge of the central CONUS/Upper Mississippi
River region through the weekend. Look for highs Thursday in the
30/40s, warming into the 40s/50s Friday through Monday. Could crack
60 at a few locations across northeast IA Friday.  Showers will then
become likely through the day Monday as low pressure moving north
across the Dakotas/southern Manitoba swings a cold front toward the
area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1134 PM CST Mon Feb 13 2017

The surface trough of low pressure was beginning to move across the
area swinging the winds around to the west/northwest. This will be
through KRST by 06Z and should go through KLSE between 08Z and 09Z.
Very little cloud cover with the trough and the mid level VFR
ceilings over northern Minnesota are expected to move by both
airports to the north. There is a continued signal in the models of
some low level moisture coming south out of Canada Tuesday to
produce VFR ceilings in the 4 to 6 thousand foot range. There are
some ceilings in this range over western Ontario this evening where
this moisture is supposed to come from so have included this in both
forecasts. Low level lapse rates will be steep enough to support
gusts to around 25 knots at both airport from about mid morning
through the afternoon.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...(for latter week into the weekend)
Issued at 306 AM CST Tue Feb 14 2017

Warmup looks on track for Thursday into the weekend. Daytime highs
are expected to warm from the 30s/40s on Thursday into the 40s/50s
for Friday into the weekend. These temperatures are expected to melt
much of the existing snow pack across the area. This snowmelt
combined with a frozen layer of ground is expected to cause runoff
into area streams and rivers. Right now, no flooding is expected but
within bank rises are likely along with the potential for a few ice
jams. Those with interests along streams and rivers will want to
keep up with the latest forecasts.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION.....04
HYDROLOGY....DAS



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