Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 240438

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1138 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016

Issued at 637 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2016

Persistent showers and storms for much of the day are finally
coming to an end, but do remain mainly east of the Mississippi
River, driven by persistent warm advection in advance of a notable
shortwave tracking through the region. In the wake of that
feature, we continue to watch just how much destabilization can
take place in advance of an approaching cold front through the
evening. Really starting to get the feeling that our threat for
any additional severe storms is rather lower through the night,
especially given a lack of any real activity to our northwest
along the front currently. Near term guidance does still hint at a
very narrow corridor of mainly elevated instability sneaking back
north in the pre-frontal airmass through 06Z, but the proof will
be told by upstream radar trends over the next few hours.


.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday Night)
Issued at 333 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016

Quite a busy day as strong thunderstorms/torrential downpours
overtook the area. This was due to a tropical tap/moisture transport
draped across I-80 in IA and ahead of a passing mid-level shortwave
trough. Numerous flood products have been issued as some communities
have seen street flooding/basement flooding. Precipitation and cloud
cover has kept temperatures in the 70s. Trouble is that the
dewpoints are also in the 70s. So quite a muggy/wet airmass.

Looking for a bit of a break in the action here between 3 and 5 pm,
but focus then turns to incoming cold front later this evening
along with another round of thunderstorms. Storm parameters show the
possibility for severe threat with better potential along/north of I-
94. Main threat would be damaging winds along with torrential
downpours and potential for some more localized flooding. Timing of
severe threat tonight looks to be in the 10pm to 4 am time frame.

Appears bulk of storms should depart east of the area by daybreak
with drier air filtering in for Sunday. Look for highs Sunday in the
80s, but more importantly dew points will be falling into the 60s
which will be much welcome.

Drier/cooler weather will last through Monday as high pressure
builds in from the Northern Plains. Look for highs Monday in the 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016

Shower/thunderstorm chances return Tuesday afternoon, then last
through Saturday on and off as northwest flow in the mid/upper
levels ushers in several troughs across the region. Temperatures
look to be pleasant in the middle 70s to lower 80s.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1138 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2016

Pesky stratus issues have once again reared their ugly head the
past few hours at RST with an MVFR ceiling developing. Don`t see
any reason that will go much of anywhere in advance of an
approaching cold front slated to arrive just after sunrise. In
fact, some of that MVFR stratus will likely sneak eastward toward
LSE at times as well. Still watching upstream showers and
thunderstorms across west central Minnesota along the incoming
cold front. For now, not seeing much development farther south,
which will be key to whether or not we see any storms pass near
the TAF sites. Per recent trends, unless that development occurs
the next few hours, showers and maybe a few storms should scrape
by to the north, and will maintain only a vicinity mention at this
point. There could be some lingering lower stratus for a time
right behind the passing cold front through mid morning, but quick
drying midday onward should deliver clearing skies and some
stronger northwest winds in the 12 to 16 knot range.


.ARX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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