Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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000
FXUS63 KARX 162300
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
600 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

Models in lock-step with zonal/ridging in the upper level flow into
Friday. A couple weak ripples move through in the middle part of the
week, but moisture is lacking and not expecting a pcpn threat.
Mostly, its about a return to above normal temperatures. NAEFS 850
mb temp anomolies continue to hover around +1 to +2 through Friday.
Looking for highs from the mid 60s to mid 70s, with Friday still
looking like it could be the warmest of the bunch. Overall, a nice
break from the cool, wet conditions of the past many days.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Monday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

Both the GFS and EC take a trough from the west coast due east,
sliding it through the Upper Mississippi River Valley Sat night/Sun.
Its associated cold front leads the system into the region with
decent low level moisture return and a little instabilty to play
with it. Both models develop convection along and behind the front,
focusing on Sat night-Sun morning for the higher rain threat. The
GFS is suggestive of a few ripples working their way out of the mean
trough Fri night-Sat, which could result in pockets of
showers/storms. EC more subduded with these chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 600 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

The only concern for the entire period is with a period of low
level wind shear this evening into the overnight hours. As a
trough of low pressure approaches from the northwest, a core of
stronger winds just above the surface will develop and move over
the area. Speeds of 40 to 45 knots between 1500 and 2000 feet are
expected from about the middle of the evening into the middle of
the night until the stronger winds move past the area. Otherwise,
VFR conditions with little to no clouds and south to southwest
surface winds at 10 knots or less.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Rieck
LONG TERM....Rieck
AVIATION...04



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