Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 210836

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
336 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 336 AM CDT Thu Jul 21 2016

Problems galore in the short term today. Models have done a terrible
job of depicting the convective potential with this obvious QLCS
squall line moving through MN. Even with convection ongoing across
ND near the 00z init time of the models, most had no clue. But the
positive side of things...the action is going on in the best areas
as diagnosed via conventional mass field analysis. As such, do
anticipate that the ongoing convection will continue southeast
through the northern third of the forecast area this morning, which
was not accounted for in the previous forecast. The rain cooled air,
clouds, and resultant cold pool will throw a huge monkey wrench into
the heat forecast. Still feel there will be a chance for the
atmosphere to recover, and it will still get pretty warm. And the
rain may even add more low level moisture to the equation. But the
cold pool may take some time to overcome, so our actual air
temperature may not end up quite as warm as previously forecast. In
fact, our going temps were 2-7 degrees above the warmest of the
guidance values. So did lower temperatures some. The resulting heat
index values did come down some as well, and some areas may not hit
the actual Excessive Heat Warning criteria. But it will be close,
and will likely still be well into Advisory range. So will just hold
on to the headlines as they are at this point.

Adding further to the story...the few model solutions that actually
have some convection are suggesting that this line may run all the
way down into southern WI and eastern IA. Perusal of other model
fields suggests there should be a lull in the action for a time this
afternoon, so will continue to hold onto that idea. Which also
allows me to keep the rest of the forecast somewhat intact. But if
that actually does happen, temps/sky and the heat headlines are all
in trouble.

This all dovetails into tonight and even Friday as well. Based on
the convection and the strength of the short wave trough that is
causing all of this as it moves into the western Great Lakes, the
surface front is now shown to be down into Iowa by the models. Some
depict more convection along it. If that indeed is where the front
ends up, and we get more rain, we probably are too high for temps
tonight into Friday as well. Lots for the day crew forecasters to
look at, with several significant changes perhaps needed.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 336 AM CDT Thu Jul 21 2016

The front is expected to lift north again Friday night in advance of
the next short wave that will send a surface low and cold front
through the region for the weekend. Indications are that some
convection will fire along this boundary, but it may be south and
west of the forecast area. The best chance for storms will come
Saturday afternoon and night. There will be a severe risk with these
storms due to ample shear and instability.

A brief respite Monday before another disturbance spreads showers
and thunderstorms into the region for late Tuesday into Wednesday.
Not much time to really dig into this given all of the short term


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Wed Jul 20 2016

Still watching a complex of showers and storms working east out of
North Dakota early this morning. Latest thinking is that these
storms will impact areas north and east of the KRST/KLSE terminals
late tonight through part of the morning hours Thursday, but there
is still a very low risk that storms could briefly impact
especially KLSE. Otherwise, outside of some pesky stratus with a
brief period of IFR ceilings around KRST, not much looks to go
through the day with warm and humid conditions before an
approaching cold front this evening returns small chances for
additional convection. For the moment, with such low confidence,
will only mention a vicinity shower, but of course watch trends


.ARX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...Excessive Heat Warning from noon today to 7 PM CDT Friday for

     Excessive Heat Warning from noon today to 10 PM CDT this evening
     for WIZ017-029.

MN...Excessive Heat Warning from noon today to 7 PM CDT Friday for

IA...Excessive Heat Warning from noon today to 7 PM CDT Friday for



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