Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
000
FXUS64 KAMA 160904
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
404 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024
...New SHORT TERM...
.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 402 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024
The H500 low pressure system continues it`s slow progression
eastward through the short term period. However, there are
concerns that this low will be displaced further west than what
models have been depicting as we approach Sunday.
Rain chances will make a resurgence later this morning, and
continue until the late afternoon hours. PoPs are now area wide,
though the main area of interest in our CWA will be the southern
Texas Panhandle. Confidence for precipitation decreases for
locations further north, but isolated showers that become
displaced from the main system are not out of the question for
those areas. Winds will remain light and variable at the surface,
while temperatures stay cool in the 50`s and lower 60`s thanks to
mostly overcast cloud coverage and potential precipitation.
Sunday will persist with cool temperatures, and winds will switch
from the north as a surface trough pushes through in the morning.
Current observations of our synoptic pattern this morning,
reinforce concerns of the closed low being forced westward
earlier than what models have displayed. This is contingent on a
stronger high pressure system in the northwest CONUS, or a more
southerly track of the main jet stream trough. As a result, this
may limit PoPs to the western Panhandles, and reduce QPF overall
as the system retreats. Therefore NBM PoPs have been reduced area
wide, but western zones still have a fair chance at seeing
additional showers Sunday morning and afternoon at this time.
Rangel
&&
.LONG TERM ...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024
The upper level low over the southwest U.S. will finally lift out
across New Mexico on Wednesday and across the Panhandles Wednesday
night into Thursday morning. This will be the timeframe for the
best chance of showers and thunderstorms across the region during
the work week. Monday and Tuesday should remain dry as the low
remains well to our west and the Panhandles are under more of a
ridge between the upper low and the large broad trough across the
eastern U.S. The dynamics from the upper low will likely be strong
enough to bring a few thunderstorms to the region Wednesday
afternoon through Wednesday night. Then a few wrap-around showers
will be possible in the eastern Panhandles Thursday as the low
moves to our east.
Highs will be the coolest on Monday with readings in the upper 50`s
to the mid 60`s. Then temperatures will the warmest Wednesday
through Friday with readings generally in the 70`s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024
MVFR conditions will settle in for DHT and AMA in the morning
hours, near 12Z, due to the potential for showers. Ceilings have
the chance to drop below 2,000 ft for Amarillo during the ongoing
showers, but should remain between 2,000 and 3,000 ft at DHT. GUY
has been excluded from shower mentions since most of the activity
should remain south of their area, and this will also allow VFR
conditions to prevail there for this TAF period. Winds at the
surface should remain light and variable throughout the day
tomorrow.
Rangel
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX 56 39 55 32 / 50 10 20 20
Beaver OK 64 39 62 27 / 20 10 0 0
Boise City OK 56 34 54 27 / 20 20 40 0
Borger TX 61 42 60 34 / 40 10 10 10
Boys Ranch TX 57 39 55 31 / 40 20 40 20
Canyon TX 55 39 54 31 / 60 10 40 30
Clarendon TX 55 41 57 34 / 60 10 20 10
Dalhart TX 56 35 53 27 / 20 20 50 10
Guymon OK 61 36 59 26 / 20 10 10 0
Hereford TX 56 38 54 31 / 40 20 50 40
Lipscomb TX 63 41 62 29 / 20 10 10 0
Pampa TX 59 41 59 32 / 40 10 10 10
Shamrock TX 58 43 60 34 / 50 10 10 10
Wellington TX 56 44 60 34 / 60 10 10 10
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....15
AVIATION...55