Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 272135
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
335 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THIS ENTIRE FORECAST WILL BE DICTATED BY A WEST TO EAST ORIENTED
UPPER TROUGH WHICH INITIALLY STARTS OFF OVER SOUTHERN CANADA SUNDAY
MORNING AND THEN EVOLVES INTO A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ORIENTED TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST U.S. TO HUDSON BAY. THEN
AN UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO CUTOFF OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. IN THE
BASE OF THIS TROUGH BY NEXT WEDNESDAY. THEN THIS WILL LOW WILL
HEAD TOWARD THE PANHANDLES BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

THE DEVIL WILL BE IN THE DETAILS OF THIS FORECAST. AS THIS UPPER
TROUGH DROPS SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN U.S. IT WILL SEND AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT INTO THE PANHANDLES MONDAY MORNING. AS THIS
COLD AIR MASS SATURATES...SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL
BE POSSIBLE OFF AND ON. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND CONTINUED WITH LOW
POPS FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

MODELS DISAGREE ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW THAT MOVES
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE GFS
IS QUICKER WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER. FOR NOW HAVE CONTINUED WITH
THE LOW POPS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                13  44  18  34  12 /   0   0   0   0  10
BEAVER OK                  10  42  14  29  11 /   0   0   0   5  10
BOISE CITY OK               8  37  15  27   4 /   0   0   0  20  20
BORGER TX                  15  44  20  32  13 /   0   0   0   0  10
BOYS RANCH TX               9  44  18  35  14 /   0   0   0   0  20
CANYON TX                  11  45  18  37  14 /   0   0   0   0  10
CLARENDON TX               17  46  22  38  15 /   0   0   0   0  10
DALHART TX                  4  42  15  33  10 /   0   0   0   5  20
GUYMON OK                   9  39  15  29   8 /   0   0   0   5  20
HEREFORD TX                 9  47  18  38  13 /   0   0   0   0  10
LIPSCOMB TX                10  42  15  32  14 /   0   0   0   5  10
PAMPA TX                   14  43  19  31  12 /   0   0   0   0  10
SHAMROCK TX                16  43  18  38  16 /   0   0   0   0   5
WELLINGTON TX              18  46  20  40  18 /   0   0   0   0   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

18/15



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