Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 192118
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
418 PM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Current upper level analysis reveals high pressure centered over
south Texas helping to shift some monsoonal moisture into the far
western Panhandles. A subtle shortwave rounding the high pressure
has helped initiate a few showers and thunderstorms over the
higher elevations of NM/CO. These may push into the northwestern
zones later this afternoon and evening but should loose steam near
the north-central zones as they encounter some dry air around
600mb-300mb noted on the 12z AMA sounding. This dry air is being
modified some around Guymon and Dalhart due to the monsoonal flow,
so keeping pops through the evening for those areas. Otherwise, a
CU field is noted in the east-central Texas Panhandle due to
diurnal heating. The HRRR has tried to initiated a storm in this
region but it will be difficult given the previously mentioned dry
mid- level air. There is plenty of instability and some low level
theta-E advection, so some very isolated convective initiation is
not out of the question through early evening as temperatures
peak around 90-95 degrees. Some storms could be on the strong
side mainly as a wind threat given steep low level lapse rates
with very marginal 10-20 knots of deep layer shear.

Going Sunday into Monday, the upper level high pressure shifts
eastwards and elongates over the southeastern CONUS while an upper
level cutoff closed low forms and beings spinning off the coast of
southern California. This will lead to more southwesterly flow
over the Panhandles. In addition, a shortwave is progged to move
through the southwest flow late Sunday into Monday. Prior to this,
conditions on Sunday should be mostly dry with mid and upper level
clouds with highs again around average. However, as the upper
shortwave approaches late Sunday, clouds will increase as will
precipitation chances. At this time, models are keeping most of
the influence of this wave across the northwestern half of the
combined Panhandles as an area of showers and thunderstorms
move out of New Mexico and into the western Panhandles late Sunday
into early Monday, and then move east-northeast across the rest of
the area through the day Monday into Monday night. This will lead
to some major challenges for those hoping to see the partial
eclipse across the Panhandles Monday afternoon as most of the area
will see at least mostly cloudy conditions. For now, it looks
like folks in the southeastern Texas Panhandle stand the best
chance of getting to see the eclipse, but if the shortwave tracks
further south that could easily change.

On Tuesday, a "cold" front is expected to move in behind the main
shortwave. This will bring additional chances for showers and
thunderstorms depending on the timing of the front and how much
the atmosphere can recover behind the shortwave. For now the
southern and eastern zones seem to be the most likely to see
precip along the front where mid level moisture is increased.
Temperatures should drop below average behind the front, with most
of the Panhandles in the 80s for highs on Wednesday.

Models suggest the return of northwest flow towards the end of
next week as high pressure builds over the southern Rockies with
a warming trend back to around average. Showers and thunderstorms
should become more nocturnal as they move off the higher terrain
in response to shortwaves moving through the northwest flow. This
will also lead to a better chance for some strong to severe storms
as deep layer directional shear increases in combination with
steep lapse rates and plenty of moisture and buoyancy.

Ward

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail over the next 24 hours.
Thunderstorm chances look very dim at this point. If storms should
develop they will likely be west of KGUY and northwest of KDHT
and should stay out of the 10 mile range for VCTS. Thusly, if
things should change will defer to TAF amendments should
conditions become more favorable. Winds will generally be out of
the south 5 to 15 kts.

Weber

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                67  90  67  87  66 /  10  20  20  30  20
Beaver OK                  70  96  72  92  69 /  10  20  20  20  40
Boise City OK              66  89  65  83  62 /  20  20  20  30  20
Borger TX                  70  94  71  90  69 /  10  20  20  30  20
Boys Ranch TX              69  92  69  87  67 /  10  20  20  40  20
Canyon TX                  66  90  65  88  66 /  10  20  20  30  20
Clarendon TX               69  92  68  91  69 /  10  20  10  20  10
Dalhart TX                 65  89  66  83  63 /  20  20  30  40  20
Guymon OK                  69  93  68  88  66 /  10  20  20  30  30
Hereford TX                66  88  67  85  65 /  10  20  20  40  20
Lipscomb TX                71  95  72  93  70 /  10  20  20  20  30
Pampa TX                   70  91  69  90  67 /  10  20  10  20  20
Shamrock TX                73  94  69  93  71 /  10  20  10  10  10
Wellington TX              73  95  70  94  72 /  10  10  10  10   5

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

89/7



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