Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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500
FXUS64 KAMA 170912
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
312 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2017

.DISCUSSION...
A cold front will move across the Panhandles this morning in the
wake of a departing upper level low which is moving into Kansas. Low
clouds and areas of fog will be found in association with the cold
front, but think these will dissipate and push off to the east by
early afternoon.

It will be interesting to see if low clouds and fog form again
tonight into early Monday. Temperatures may drop fairly quickly
after sunset given the light winds and the slightly drier air behind
the cold front.  The NAM model wants to be agressive with the
moisture return as the front dissipates to our south.  The GFS is
not as agressive with the low level moistening since mid and high
level clouds increase overnight keeping temperatures a little warmer
and therefore keeping a spread between the dew points and
temperatures. For now will go toward the GFS model given the current
satellite picture.

Southwest winds will return to the Panhandles as a surface lee
trough develops in response to another approaching upper level low.
This new upper level low is expected to move east/northeast across
northern Mexico and into western Texas on Tuesday. The models do not
agree on the track of this next system, but it appears that the far
southeast Texas Panhandle may see a shower or two in the wrap-around
as the upper low moves to our south and southeast.

The main belt of the westerlies in the upper levels will then start
to sag southward again and this should allow for another colder
short wave trough to move across the Panhandles Thursday into
Friday. This next short wave trough will bring Canadian air with it
and it will send temperatures back below normal from Friday through
next weekend. The jury is still out on whether any snow will fall
with this next system. For now kept some slight chance pops for snow
showers in the forecast for next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                51  30  61  33  57 /   0   0   0   0  10
Beaver OK                  46  24  64  31  59 /   0   0   0   0   5
Boise City OK              44  26  61  29  54 /   0   0   0   0   5
Borger TX                  51  31  63  35  59 /   0   0   0   0  10
Boys Ranch TX              51  27  64  30  58 /   0   0   0   0  10
Canyon TX                  53  28  61  32  57 /   0   0   0   0  10
Clarendon TX               55  30  60  35  60 /   0   0   0   0  10
Dalhart TX                 48  27  63  29  57 /   0   0   0   0  10
Guymon OK                  46  26  63  30  56 /   0   0   0   0   5
Hereford TX                53  28  62  31  58 /   0   0   0   0  10
Lipscomb TX                50  28  64  35  62 /   0   0   0   0  10
Pampa TX                   52  29  63  35  59 /   0   0   0   0  10
Shamrock TX                54  29  61  36  61 /   0   0   0   0  10
Wellington TX              56  31  61  36  62 /   0   0   0   0  20

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

29/15



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