Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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288 FXUS64 KAMA 090809 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 309 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM ... (Today through Friday night) Issued at 305 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024 Mostly quiet conditions are forecast to end the work week for the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Light showers and/or storms are possible tonight and Friday night for mainly the western Panhandles. Severe thunderstorms are not expected should any thunderstorms develop either of these days. Infrared satellite imagery depicts high clouds across the central and western portions of the CWA early this morning. Temperatures at this time range from the upper 40s to mid 50s across the region with easterly winds. Surface moisture has returned to the area with dew points rising into the 30s behind a weak front still moving across the area at the time of this writing. The surface boundary that is pushing through the Panhandles this morning should stall to the west and southwest of the area later on today. To the east of the boundary, breezy winds out of the east are forecast but fire weather is not anticipated as moisture will be higher across the region when compared to the last few days. Even though most areas today will be mostly sunny, very little WAA is forecast for the area today so highs will be below average in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Zonal flow will continue through the evening hours into the night tonight. A disturbance in the flow aloft may aid in generating some showers and storms tonight across mainly the western and northwestern Panhandles. Most CAMs have at least some light moisture making it to the area during this time frame. Forecast soundings do not depict much, if any, elevated instability so severe storms are not forecast at this time. For areas that do receive rain tonight, should any showers make it this far east, only light amounts are expected. The upper level pattern remains practically unchanged for Friday and similar conditions appear likely for the region. Main difference at this time looks to be lighter winds on Friday afternoon, with the current sustained wind forecast in the 10 to 15 mph range out of the east. Highs will once again be in the upper 60s to mid 70s with some cloud cover, mainly for the central and west. An additional shortwave will move across the area Friday evening. A few showers and storms may reach the far western areas during the nighttime hours, with very little rainfall expected if any precipitation makes it this far east. Muscha && .LONG TERM ... (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 305 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024 Confidence is increasing in below average temperatures continuing through weekend and there are better chances for rainfall area wide. Exact amounts of rainfall are still a question, but there is a good chance that most locations will see at least light rainfall this weekend. The system that brings the rain chances exits to the east by early next week and temperatures should warm back up and rain chances may continue. An H500 low with the center near the Four Corners region will slowly move off to the east this weekend into early next week. The 09/00z suite of guidance continues to be in good agreement with the track of the low, just how quick does it move off to the east and how strong is the low remain the questions at this time. In any case, the track is favorable to provide lift for precipitation. The unknowns are the amount of moisture available throughout the atmosphere and how quickly does the low (and lift) move off to the east. Even if the unfavorable solution of less moisture and faster moving system comes to fruition (as depicted by the GFS), rain chances still look pretty good for the area, just the amount of moisture received is not all that great. In any case, the latest LREF/NBM probabilities for a half inch of rain are still favorable at this time, with a 30-50 percent chance area wide. The best chance for rainfall this weekend looks to be on Sunday afternoon into the evening as this is when the low pressure system looks to be moving over the Southern High Plains. Monday through mid week will start warming up as the low pressure system exits off to the east. Westerly flow is forecast through mid week as a weak low pressure system moves over the Desert Southwest. Warmer air looks to return to the area with highs likely returning to near or above average during the work week. Model guidance suggests a few weak disturbances embedded in the flow may move over the Panhandles during this time frame. Should enough moisture be present, showers and thunderstorms chances may continue through at least the middle part of next week. Muscha && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1218 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024 VFR conditions will likely persist with this TAF issuance. East winds are forecast through most of the next 24 hours. Gusts during the daytime hours could be up to 20 to 25 kts. The gusts should drop off after 00z at the sites. High clouds are forecast to move over the terminals. There is a low chance (10-15 percent) of a shower or storm impacting KDHT/KGUY late in this TAF period, confidence is not high enough to include at this time. Muscha && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 74 48 72 50 / 10 10 0 10 Beaver OK 76 46 76 47 / 10 10 0 0 Boise City OK 69 45 67 44 / 10 20 10 10 Borger TX 78 49 76 51 / 10 10 0 10 Boys Ranch TX 76 48 74 49 / 10 20 0 10 Canyon TX 74 47 72 48 / 10 10 0 10 Clarendon TX 75 50 74 52 / 10 0 0 0 Dalhart TX 71 43 68 44 / 10 20 0 10 Guymon OK 73 45 73 46 / 10 20 0 10 Hereford TX 75 48 73 49 / 10 10 0 10 Lipscomb TX 77 48 76 50 / 10 10 0 0 Pampa TX 74 48 73 50 / 10 10 0 0 Shamrock TX 77 50 76 51 / 10 0 0 0 Wellington TX 77 50 76 51 / 0 0 0 0 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM....05 AVIATION...05