Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 172312
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
612 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

A warm and dry trend is forecast today and tomorrow for the
Panhandles. Temperatures will slowly warm up into the 60s for some
locations today and tomorrow. Outside of the small chance for a
rain shower across the southwest this afternoon, all locations
will remain dry through Monday night.

The latest satellite day cloud phase RGB still shows partly to
mostly cloudy skies across the Panhandles with the northeast
having the least amount of cloud cover. Temperatures have warmed
into the mid to upper 50s with a few 60s this afternoon. There
have been a few returns on radar across the west today, but do not
think much of if any of this rain is reaching the ground. A nice
rest of the afternoon is in store with light winds and warmer
temperatures when compared to the past few days. For tonight,
skies will clear out and winds will decrease which will lead to
good radiational cooling. Lows for most will drop down to near or
below freezing.

The H500 low pressure system that provided the rain chances the
last few days will slowly move back to the west on Monday and
should be located near the California/Arizona state line by late
in the day. For the Panhandles, weak flow aloft with a weak
surface high to the east will keep winds very light tomorrow. Wind
speeds should mainly stay under 10 mph throughout the entire day.
Skies will be clear throughout the day which will allow the area
to warm back up tomorrow. The light winds and temperatures in the
low 60s will make for a nice Spring-like day for the region.

Muscha

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

The aforementioned upper level low pressure system initially
progged to be over western Arizona early Tuesday morning is
forecast to move eastward across the southern high plains on
Wednesday and Wednesday night. The 12Z deterministic medium range
models and associated ensemble members are in reasonably good
agreement today with respect to the track and timing of this storm
system. In addition, the latest NBM pops and temperatures
continue to reflect the above reasoning and were incorporated into
the grids. This suggests dry weather for Tuesday through
Wednesday morning. As the upper level low pressure system moves
across the region Wednesday afternoon and night in a somewhat
weakened state, expect the threat for showers to return during
that time. Models suggest there may be just enough instability to
warrant the possibility of some thunderstorms across at least
parts of the area later Wednesday afternoon and night, and this
has been included in the weather grids during that time frame. Dry
weather returns for Thursday afternoon through Saturday.

02

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 537 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

VFR conditions and light winds expected at all terminals and
across the panhandles through Monday. Current mid level clouds
will dissipate through the rest of the day and early overnight
leaving sky clear conditions by Monday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                31  61  37  68 /   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  27  60  35  74 /   0   0   0   0
Boise City OK              27  59  34  68 /   0   0   0   0
Borger TX                  33  64  40  73 /   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              30  63  35  71 /   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  31  62  35  68 /   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               33  60  38  70 /   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 27  60  32  68 /   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  26  60  35  72 /   0   0   0   0
Hereford TX                30  63  34  68 /   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                28  60  37  75 /   0   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   31  61  39  71 /   0   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                31  59  36  72 /   0   0   0   0
Wellington TX              32  59  35  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....02
AVIATION...98


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