Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
000
FXUS64 KAMA 172312
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
612 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024
A warm and dry trend is forecast today and tomorrow for the
Panhandles. Temperatures will slowly warm up into the 60s for some
locations today and tomorrow. Outside of the small chance for a
rain shower across the southwest this afternoon, all locations
will remain dry through Monday night.
The latest satellite day cloud phase RGB still shows partly to
mostly cloudy skies across the Panhandles with the northeast
having the least amount of cloud cover. Temperatures have warmed
into the mid to upper 50s with a few 60s this afternoon. There
have been a few returns on radar across the west today, but do not
think much of if any of this rain is reaching the ground. A nice
rest of the afternoon is in store with light winds and warmer
temperatures when compared to the past few days. For tonight,
skies will clear out and winds will decrease which will lead to
good radiational cooling. Lows for most will drop down to near or
below freezing.
The H500 low pressure system that provided the rain chances the
last few days will slowly move back to the west on Monday and
should be located near the California/Arizona state line by late
in the day. For the Panhandles, weak flow aloft with a weak
surface high to the east will keep winds very light tomorrow. Wind
speeds should mainly stay under 10 mph throughout the entire day.
Skies will be clear throughout the day which will allow the area
to warm back up tomorrow. The light winds and temperatures in the
low 60s will make for a nice Spring-like day for the region.
Muscha
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024
The aforementioned upper level low pressure system initially
progged to be over western Arizona early Tuesday morning is
forecast to move eastward across the southern high plains on
Wednesday and Wednesday night. The 12Z deterministic medium range
models and associated ensemble members are in reasonably good
agreement today with respect to the track and timing of this storm
system. In addition, the latest NBM pops and temperatures
continue to reflect the above reasoning and were incorporated into
the grids. This suggests dry weather for Tuesday through
Wednesday morning. As the upper level low pressure system moves
across the region Wednesday afternoon and night in a somewhat
weakened state, expect the threat for showers to return during
that time. Models suggest there may be just enough instability to
warrant the possibility of some thunderstorms across at least
parts of the area later Wednesday afternoon and night, and this
has been included in the weather grids during that time frame. Dry
weather returns for Thursday afternoon through Saturday.
02
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 537 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024
VFR conditions and light winds expected at all terminals and
across the panhandles through Monday. Current mid level clouds
will dissipate through the rest of the day and early overnight
leaving sky clear conditions by Monday morning.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX 31 61 37 68 / 0 0 0 0
Beaver OK 27 60 35 74 / 0 0 0 0
Boise City OK 27 59 34 68 / 0 0 0 0
Borger TX 33 64 40 73 / 0 0 0 0
Boys Ranch TX 30 63 35 71 / 0 0 0 0
Canyon TX 31 62 35 68 / 0 0 0 0
Clarendon TX 33 60 38 70 / 0 0 0 0
Dalhart TX 27 60 32 68 / 0 0 0 0
Guymon OK 26 60 35 72 / 0 0 0 0
Hereford TX 30 63 34 68 / 0 0 0 0
Lipscomb TX 28 60 37 75 / 0 0 0 0
Pampa TX 31 61 39 71 / 0 0 0 0
Shamrock TX 31 59 36 72 / 0 0 0 0
Wellington TX 32 59 35 72 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....02
AVIATION...98