Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 280524

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1224 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017

06Z TAF Cycle

VFR conditions will prevail at all three TAF sites through 06Z
Monday. North winds 10 to 20 knots with higher gusts to 25 to 40
knots will diminish after 08Z today to around 10 to 15 knots with
winds becoming northeast to east 5 to 10 knots or less after 20Z
to 22Z today.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 607 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017/

AVIATION...00Z TAFs...A cold front is moving across the southern
Texas Panhandle this afternoon with northerly winds BTWN 10 to 20
kts at all terminals expected. A few thunderstorms are possible
through 05Z, though conditions are most favorable at KGUY. Have
opted to include mention of VCTS and will adjust accordingly with
amendments. Otherwise, stronger wind gusts BTWN 15 to 25 kts with
gusts up to 35 kts possible BTWN 28/01Z and 28/09Z as reinforcing
winds with passing low affect all terminals. Winds should calm and
skies should clear AFT 28/09Z.


PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 431 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017/

Shortwave trough over south central CO will track southeast across
the northern Panhandles. Large scale forcing will allow for storms
to develop over the mountains to the west and will continue to
track east. Post frontal stratus deck will continue to erode with
daytime heating. Steep mid level laps rates will allow for
sufficient MLCAPE values 500-1500 J/kg along with effective shear
values of 40-50 kts. This will provide support for isolated to
scattered supercells capable of producing large hail (ping pong
ball) and damaging winds up to 75 mph around sunset. This threat
should diminish around midnight, as the cold front will move
through and daytime heating will be gone.

Strong northerly winds with the cold front will be expected. There
will be a brief period where we expect the winds in Cimarron,
Dallam, and Hartley counties to meet Advisory criteria. Therefore
have issued a Wind Advisory for these counties from 9pm through
2am. Again, these strong winds may only be short lived about 1 to
3 hours within this time period. All other areas will see a good
northerly wind push, but the areas further away from the
northwest Panhandles should expect lighter, albeit gusty, winds.
Expected sustained winds 15-30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph is
possible across most areas, while the northwest is expected to
see sustained 30-40 mph and gusts up to 55mph.

As the cold front exits the area, lighter northerly winds will
remain for Sunday, and daytime highs will be in the mid 70s to low
80s. No precipitation is expected on Sunday. Precipitation
chances look to return to the western Panhandles on Monday as an
upper level low dives down across southern CA and will begin to
pump up moisture from the gulf. This low is expected to be
cut off from the main flow to the west of the Panhandles,
continuing to feed the area moisture through at least Saturday. As
the low attempts to eject east over the next weekend there may
still be some showers and storms from northwesterly flow behind,
with the central and eastern Panhandles looking to be more
favorable for storm activity.


KGUY may start for a brief period at MVFR conditions for the 18Z
TAF period. These brief MVFR conditions may occur at KGUY where
current obs and satellite trends have kept cigs around 2 kft all
morning to now. Eventually getting toward 20Z Saturday, all TAF
sites will be at VFR conditions. For a brief window between 00Z to
around 06Z Sunday, winds will be quite gusty out of the north
along and just behind the front with sustained winds around 20-25
kts with gusts as high as 35 kts possible. Although not mentioned,
LLWS may also be an issue at this time and will be updated with
the next TAF package. VCSH conditions along with a system just to
the north of the area may impact KGUY as well. Otherwise after 06Z
Sunday, VFR conditions will continue with winds subsiding to
10-15 kts out of the north with clearing skies.


Elevated fire weather conditions expected across
Deaf Smith and Oldham Counties this afternoon and evening. 20ft
winds in the 15-20mph range along with relative humidities in the
single digits to low teens will promote elevated fire conditions.
In the event fires do start up there will be a strong wind shift
out of the north late this evening as a cold front moves south
across the Panhandles. Winds could be as strong as sustained 30mph
with gusts up to 40 mph out of the north. This is expected to
occur between 9pm and 1am tonight. At these points the relative
humidity values should start to come up and the elevated Fire
Weather threat will be over. But if any fires do get going before
and are not contained, these winds could become an issue.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...High Wind Warning until 2 AM CDT early this morning for the
     following zones: Hemphill...Lipscomb...Ochiltree...Roberts.

     Wind Advisory until 2 AM CDT early this morning for the
     following zones: Armstrong...Carson...Dallam...Deaf Smith...

OK...High Wind Warning until 2 AM CDT early this morning for the
     following zones: Beaver.

     Wind Advisory until 2 AM CDT early this morning for the
     following zones: Cimarron.



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