Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 231131
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
531 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2018

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites over the next 24
hours, with north winds less than 10 kts.

Weber

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 452 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Another dry seven day forecast is in store for the Panhandles. The
most activity comes on the Fire Weather side (see Fire Weather
Discussion for further details). Temperatures are on a slow
rebound as a ridge of high pressure attempts to build across the
southern CONUS. Winds will be light and variable today as the
surface pressure gradients will be fairly weak.

As the ridge of high pressure settles over the southern CONUS on
Wednesday, a weak disturbance to the southwest will set up and a
low level 850 jet out of the southwest will be in place over the
Panhandles allow breezy winds to mix down to the surface.

As the ridge shifts further east upper level flow will be out of
the southwest, with continued dry air over the Panhandles, the
aforementioned disturbance providing the low level 850 jet will
still be positioned out of the southwest, but will be stronger.
With warmer temperatures in the low 60s and low dewpoints critical
Fire Weather conditions will be possible Thursday afternoon,
mainly across the northern Panhandles (See Fire Weather
Discussion).

Models are still working on timing, but a cold front is expected
sometime on Friday, the arrival timing will play a significant
role on the maximum temperatures across the Panhandles. Right now
highs are in the 60s across the Panhandles, but one of the models
suggest the front will start to move across the OK Panhandle as
early as mid morning on Friday, this would limit the high
temperature potential, however another model has the cold front
coming in after sunset, allowing for the max heating to be
achieved across all areas of the Panhandles.

For the rest of the weekend, expect conditions to still be dry,
however temperatures will be dependent on the strength of the
Friday cold front, and models diverge quite a bit on this
strength. Highs have been kept in the near to slightly below
normal range, to account for the frontal passage.

By Monday models agree that northwest flow aloft will persist,
amidst another ridge of high pressure building across the Western
CONUS. This will suggest highs return to the 60s at least.

Weber

FIRE WEATHER...

Southwest winds return to the Panhandles on Wednesday and the
will persist through Friday, with cold front potential sometime
Friday or Friday night (models still uncertain of when the frontal
passage will be).

Southwest winds will be around 15 to 20 mph on Wednesday but the
relative humidities are expected to be in the upper teens to low
20s, keeping conditions elevated for Wednesday.

Thursday winds will be similar, and may be a bit stronger to the
north, with afternoon relative humidity values dropping in the 10
to 15 percent range for several hours. This is enough to warrant
a Fire Weather Watch. It will be on the marginal side for wind,
but do expect the threshold to be met for at least 3 hours. ERC`s
are still very close to the 90th percentile and may cross over by
Thursday afternoon.

Elevated Fire Weather is possible Friday, as marginal southwest
winds will be across the southwest Texas Panhandle and may only
occur for a few hours.

Weber

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                53  22  58  31  62 /   0   0   0   0   5
Beaver OK                  53  21  59  30  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
Boise City OK              48  20  57  27  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
Borger TX                  54  24  60  35  66 /   0   0   0   0   5
Boys Ranch TX              53  19  60  27  65 /   0   0   0   0   5
Canyon TX                  54  21  59  29  62 /   0   0   0   0   5
Clarendon TX               55  24  60  31  64 /   0   0   0   0   5
Dalhart TX                 50  18  56  25  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  51  20  59  29  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
Hereford TX                55  20  58  27  62 /   0   0   0   0   5
Lipscomb TX                54  21  60  33  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   52  23  59  33  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                56  24  60  31  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
Wellington TX              57  26  61  29  65 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Fire Weather Watch Thursday afternoon for the following zones:
     Dallam...Hansford...Lipscomb...Ochiltree...Sherman.

OK...Fire Weather Watch Thursday afternoon for the following zones:
     Beaver...Cimarron...Texas.


&&

$$

89/89/89



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