Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 011135 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
635 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.AVIATION...
A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL DRIFT OVER THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING.  SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS WILL COMMENCE GUSTING INTO THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE MID- TO
LATE-MORNING...WITH ONSET OF SAME OCCURRING LATER AT KDHT DUE TO
PROXIMITY OF SURFACE TROF.

HIGH-BASED AFTERNOON AND EVENING CUMULUS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
PRIMARILY OVER NORTHWEST PART OF FORECAST AREA...INCLUDING KDHT...A
REGION WHERE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.
THUNDERSTORMS MOST LIKELY TO FORM BETWEEN 22Z TODAY AND 04Z
WEDNESDAY.  WILL NOT INCLUDE MENTION OF THUNDER IN KDHT TAF DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING LOCATION AND TIMING OF DEVELOPMENT.

SURFACE WINDS LAY DOWN AROUND 01Z WEDNESDAY...REMAINING SOUTHERLY
BELOW 15 KT THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY.  NO OVERNIGHT VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.  VFR FORECAST CONTINUES NEXT 24 HOURS.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FAIRLY STAGNANT PATTERN TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST
WEEK OF SEPTEMBER...HIGHLIGHTED BY SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES ALONG THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE
MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE LINGERING ACROSS
THE FAR WESTERN PANHANDLES EARLY THIS MORNING WITHIN THE MONSOON PLUME.
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN WEAK WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
30-40KT SOUTHERLY LLJ WERE HELPING TO SUSTAIN THIS CONVECTION. IT
SHOULD WANE A LITTLE LATER THIS MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE ADVANCES
NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE LLJ VEERS TO THE SOUTHWEST.

AS WE START THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER...IT LOOKS LIKE SUMMERTIME TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE. HOWEVER...WE WILL START TO SEE SOME SIGNS OF THE
TRANSITION TOWARD FALL...NAMELY IN THE FORM OF BREEZIER WINDS THAN
WE/VE SEEN THE PAST FEW MONTHS. WITH THE UPPER JET HAVING SHIFTED
FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER/NORTHERN TIER STATES AND
STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHS/LOWS BEGINNING TO MOVE ACROSS THIS PART
OF THE COUNTRY...STRONGER CROSS-MOUNTAIN FLOW OVER THE ROCKIES WILL
LEAD TO DEEPER LEE SURFACE TROUGHING...ULTIMATELY RESULTING IN
BREEZIER SOUTHERLY WINDS LOCALLY. RESULTANT WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
HOWEVER KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO BE
STRONGLY TIED TO THE MONSOON. THE PANHANDLES WILL GENERALLY STAY IN
WEAK WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
RIDGE. THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME WILL BE
DRAPED ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES TODAY...SUPPORTING RENEWED ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SOME SUBTLE DRYING OF THE COLUMN
OCCURS...HOWEVER PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL STILL EXIST ACROSS THE
WESTERN PANHANDLES TO SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WEAK
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LEE TROUGH AXIS AND OROGRAPHIC
CIRCULATIONS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN NM WILL AID
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FRIDAY INTO THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
STRENGTHEN AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS OVER THE PAC NW/NORTHERN
ROCKIES/GREAT BASIN...ADVECTING THE MONSOON PLUME FARTHER EAST OVER
THE PANHANDLES. IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE SOME ENHANCED TROPICAL
MOISTURE MAY GET INFUSED INTO THE MONSOON TAP DURING THIS TIME AS
WELL. THUS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL EXPAND OVER MUCH OF THE
PANHANDLES OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. IT CERTAINLY DOESN/T LOOK LIKE A
WASHOUT...BUT DIURNAL HEATING ACTING ON THE MONSOON MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE POSSIBLE
COLD FRONT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH IT NOW LOOKING TO STRUGGLE TO
PUSH THIS FAR SOUTH AND BEING MUCH WEAKER IF IT DOES SO. THUS WARM
TEMPS LOOK TO PERSIST THROUGH LABOR DAY.

KB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                90  66  90  67  91 /   5   5   5   5   5
BEAVER OK                  94  70  95  70  96 /   5  10   5   5   5
BOISE CITY OK              91  65  93  65  93 /  30  30  10  10  20
BORGER TX                  94  70  93  71  94 /   5   5   5   5   5
BOYS RANCH TX              94  67  94  68  94 /  10  10   5   5  10
CANYON TX                  91  66  91  65  91 /   5   5   5   5  10
CLARENDON TX               92  66  92  67  92 /   0   5   0   0   5
DALHART TX                 95  65  94  65  94 /  20  20  10  10  20
GUYMON OK                  94  68  94  68  94 /  10  10   5  10  10
HEREFORD TX                91  66  92  67  91 /  10  10   5   5  10
LIPSCOMB TX                94  69  93  69  94 /   5   5   0   0   5
PAMPA TX                   92  68  92  69  92 /   5   5   0   0   5
SHAMROCK TX                93  68  94  69  93 /   0   0   0   0   5
WELLINGTON TX              95  68  95  69  94 /   0   0   0   0   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/08


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