000
FXUS64 KAMA 100506 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1206 AM CDT MON MAR 10 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT ALL TERMINAL SITES
THROUGH LATE MONDAY EVENING.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 PM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINAL SITES
THROUGH LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 PM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SUNNY SKIES AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN THE MAIN WEATHER
STORY OVER THE PANHANDLES TODAY WHICH IS A FAR CONTRAST OVER THE
CHILLY AND CLOUDY WEATHER OBSERVED YESTERDAY. CLEAR SKIES AND
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE
30S AREA WIDE.

FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK...UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS SOARING INTO THE 70S...WITH
A FEW LOWER 80S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...UNDER SUNNY SKIES.

FORECAST CHALLENGES AND BIG CHANGES COME TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT BARRELS ACROSS THE REGION. LIKE MOST COLD FRONTS THAT
ENTER THIS AREA LATELY...TIMING THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT SEEMS
TO ALWAYS BE THE MAIN HEADACHE FOR FORECASTERS. THIS CASE APPEARS TO
BE NO DIFFERENT AS THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE MUCH FASTER THAN THE GFS
SOLUTION. SIDED WITH THE FASTER PROGRESSION BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH AS FAR AS THE RESULTANT AFFECT ON HIGH TEMPERATURES. MOST
CONFIDENCE LIES WITHIN FORECAST HIGHS IN THE FAR NORTHWEST (COLDEST)
AND FAR SOUTHEAST (WARMEST) WITH THE IN BETWEEN AREAS IN AN AREA OF
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY.

BY EARLY EVENING TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED THROUGH
THE ENTIRE AREA BRINGING GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE PANHANDLES.
CONFIDENCE IS ALSO LOW ON ANY PRECIPITATION IMPACTING THE PANHANDLES
BUT FOR NOW HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE OKLAHOMA AND THE FAR
NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLES...ALTHOUGH THE TREND APPEARS TO BE DRIER AND
DRIER. THINK WHAT LITTLE SNOW FALLS SHOULD PROVIDE LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATIONS. WEDNESDAY WILL BE AN UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY WITH THE
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS FINALLY SUBSIDING. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
CLEAR AND COOL ALLOWING LOWS TO EASILY DROP INTO THE 20S.

THURSDAY...FRIDAY...AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE TYPICAL FOR MID
MARCH WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 30S. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY...BUT EXPECTING LITTLE TO NO
IMPACT AS MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AND THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
NOT VERY DEEP. NEXT WEEKEND SHOULD BE AN IDEAL ONE FOR THOSE
FINISHING UP SPRING BREAK EVEN WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO
PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY.

KNS

FIRE WEATHER...

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
PANHANDLES ON MONDAY. LOWEST AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
BE BELOW 20 PERCENT AND WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME BUT SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW 15MPH. ELEVATED TO MARGINALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY JUST AHEAD AND BEHIND A STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...THERE IS LITTLE TO NO FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

KNS

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$