Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 020421 AAC
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1121 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION...
IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT NORTHERN TERMINALS BEFORE
SUNRISE...AND TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SURFACE WINDS BECOME LIGHT SOUTHEAST.

AT KAMA...LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO EDGE IN FROM THE NORTH...BUT TO NOT
BE OF SUFFICIENT COVERAGE TO CONSTITUTE A CEILING.  THIS WILL BE
MONITORED CLOSELY OVERNIGHT.  SURFACE WINDS WILL TREND TO SOUTHEAST
IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG INSTABILITY AXIS
RUNNING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST NEAR KAMA...BUT EXPECT THAT MOST
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE EAST OF KAMA.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 943 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

UPDATE...
A POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE AIR MASS WILL ADVECT RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WESTWARD AND SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT, RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
LOW CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE HIGHWAY 60
CORRIDOR. THERE IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY OF SOME PATCHY FOG IN THESE
SAME AREAS AFTER 4 AM, BUT VISIBILITIES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP TO
1/4 MILE OR LESS. THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 10 AM TUESDAY, BUT THE
LOW CLOUDS MAY BE A LITTLE MORE STUBBORN TO BREAK UP ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST PANHANDLES UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

WE`LL CONTINUE TO HOLD ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MAINLY THE EASTERN PANHANDLES FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE
A COUPLE OF OPPORTUNITIES TO SEE RAIN:
1) WITH BACKBUILDING STORMS ALONG THE FRONT. IF THESE SOMEHOW
BACKBUILD INTO OUR AREA, LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF A WHEELER TO
CLARENDON LINE WILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT OF BEING IMPACTED.
2) WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF COLORADO LATE
TONIGHT. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS, BUT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN NORTH AND EAST
OF OUR FORECAST AREA, CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE POTENTIAL VORTICITY
ANOMALY.

HOWEVER, CHANCES OF SEEING RAIN IN OUR AREA OVERNIGHT ARE NOT VERY
HIGH.

JACKSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

AVIATION...
HAVE MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT
KAMA.

AT KDHT AND KGUY, HAVE MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT IFR CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP 10Z-17Z AND 07Z-16Z, RESPECTIVELY. IT`S POSSIBLE THAT
LIFR CONDITIONS COULD EVEN BRIEFLY DEVELOP.

A FEW SHRA/TSRA COULD CLIP THE FAR NORTHEAST PANHANDLES LATE TONIGHT,
BUT THEY SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF KGUY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR AN
ISOLATED TSRA TO ALSO DEVELOP JUST EAST OF KAMA AFTER 20Z, BUT
CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

JACKSON

UPDATE...
CUMULUS ARE TRYING TO BUILD ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE,
BUT THESE TOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED OVER THE LAST 30 MINUTES. 0000 UTC
KAMA RAOB DATA SHOW A WEAKER CAP THAN YESTERDAY, BUT IT`S STILL QUITE
APPARENT. APART FROM SOME WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE/CONFLUENCE,
CHANCES OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION APPEAR VERY SLIM WITH NO BACKGROUND
FORCING FOR ASCENT PRESENT. IF ANYTHING DOES DEVELOP, IT SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF A WHEELER TO CLARENDON LINE.

WE`LL LIKELY HAVE TO DO A FORECAST UPDATE ONCE THE NEWEST MODEL AND
UPPER AIR DATA ROLL IN AS IT APPEARS THAT PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
WILL DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE CANADIAN RIVER
VALLEY.

JACKSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...

DID NOT CHANGE A LOT IN THE FORECAST AS GOING PACKAGE SEEMS TO BE IN
GOOD SHAPE. THE OVERALL IDEA OF A WARM DRY WEEK FOLLOWED BY A COOLER
WETTER WEEKEND STILL REMAINS VALID THOUGH SOME OF THE DETAILS REMAIN
A BIT FUZZY DUE TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT.

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
WARM AND PREDOMINATELY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN THIS PERIOD. THERE
COULD BE AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO OVERNIGHT IN THE ERN PANHANDLES
TONIGHT AND AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LIMITED. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW BEFORE
PICKING UP WED AND THU OUT OF THE SW.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
A COLD FRONT WILL WORK INTO THE AREA SOMETIME AROUND THE THU NIGHT/FRIDAY
TIMEFRAME. MED RANGE MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF
THIS FRONT...BUT HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE GEM/ECMWF SOLUTION OF
BRINGING THE FRONT IN THU NIGHT AND KEEPING THE FRONT AROUND THE
PANHANDLES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THIS PREFERENCE...HAVE TRIMMED
HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND AND LEFT IN THE PRECIP CHANCES.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/13





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