Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
FXUS64 KAMA 260442
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1042 PM CST Sat Feb 25 2017
For the 06z TAFs...no significant changes from forecast of six
hours ago. Abundance of mid-level clouds can be expected for the
next 24 hours with no visibility restrictions foreseen. Weak
back-door cold front will make its move into forecast area and
will then begin to lift north, causing variability in surface wind
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 528 PM CST Sat Feb 25 2017/
VFR conditions expected to prevail next 24 hours, with varying
amounts of mid- and high-level clouds overhead. No overnight or
daytime visibility restrictions foreseen. Southwest or south
surface winds this evening generally at or below 15 kt expected
until weak cold front causes shift to northwest. Currently
forecasting wind shift to occur around 09z, 10z and 14z at DHT,
GUY and AMA respectively. Frontal boundary expected to lie from
northwest to southeast across forecast area by Sunday afternoon,
with light to moderate westerly surface winds during the afternoon at
AMA and DHT, while GUY retains an easterly component to surface
winds during the afternoon hours.
PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 258 PM CST Sat Feb 25 2017/
Most of the discussion will be in the Fire Weather section, since
that seems to be the theme of the forecast. West to southwest
flow aloft will continue for the next 48 to 72 hours. Winds aloft
will be moderate to strong at times, and this will allow for
decent mixing to the surface to allow for breezy to windy
conditions. Right now tomorrow and Thursday might be the only days
that we don`t have winds at least 15 mph in company with low
humidities to create elevated conditions.
Temperatures will continue to rebound through Tuesday as the flow
shifts more southwesterly. But Tuesday evening a cold front will
work it`s way into the Panhandles and the winds will shift out of
the north. There is a slight chance for rain/snow showers along
the OK Panhandle. These winds will continue overnight and
strengthen across the eastern Panhandles on Wednesday afternoon.
Temperatures will fall back into the 50s on Wednesday. Conditions
will begin to improve as we head into the weekend as high pressure
attempts to rebuild over the southern plains. Highs on Saturday
are expected to return to the lower 70s. Other than Tuesday
evening into Wednesday the forecast will remain pretty dry.
Southwest 20 foot winds this afternoon and evening of about 15 to 20
mph will continue across the western portion of the Panhandles.
Minimum humidities will accompany in the 15 to 20 percent range,
keeping elevated Fire Weather conditions.
We will have a break Sunday but as a low deepens on the lee side
of the Rockies Monday and Tuesday could be elevated to critical
fire weather days. With the warmest air in play on Tuesday prior
to a cold front Tuesday evening, that day could be the highest
threat for Fire Weather.
Wednesday the winds will be out of the north on the backside of
the cold front. But the air will still be dry enough that some of
the eastern Panhandles might see elevated conditions, where the
strongest winds are expected. Winds should die down on Thursday,
but Friday could once again be breezy with elevated conditions, as
southwest flow returns in the wake of warmer temperatures.