Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 271133
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
633 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.Aviation...
12Z TAFs...VFR conditions will continue this period. Winds will
generally favor a west to northwest direction, and start gusting near
20 to 28kts this afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms are possible
across the OK Panhandle and into the northern TX Panhandle this
afternoon into this evening. Winds will taper off and remain mostly
out of the northwest through Saturday morning.

Elsenheimer

&&

.Prev Discussion... /Issued 338 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016/

Discussion...
An upper low will pass by to our north today. Heating beneath cooling
mid levels should yield sufficient instability for some convection by
afternoon. Weak instability should limit severe potential but deep
dry subcloud layer may develop since post frontal moisture is modest
at best. Strong wind gusts could accompany showers and thunderstorms.

Southern stream jet will remain active into early next week and by
Sunday a slow moving and fairly weak upper low will approach. This
will force southeasterly flow and rapid return of moisture to the
Panhandles. Weak forcing in a moist unstable environment should
result in convection by afternoon. Deep layer shear will be weak
initially but may strengthen as low level southeasterly winds
increase late. Aloft winds are fairly light so storm
organization/persistence may be difficult to achieve. Models suggest
cold pool driven complex may form later in the day and continue into
the evening possibly leading to heavy rainfall amounts and potential
flooding.

Weak synoptic flow will continue into early week with a tendency
for gradual mid-level height falls through the period. Eventually the
western trough will pass forcing a cold front through by Wednesday and
bringing drier and slightly cooler weather for the latter half of
the week. Low precipitation probabilities were retained for Thursday
because ECMWF is slower to move the trough east. Also, seasonal
uptick in mountain convection to our west and northwesterly flow
in the wake of this trough may cause convection to enter the far
western portion of our area late in the week and possibly the
weekend.

BRB

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

18/17


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