Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 280550 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1150 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
MAIN REASON FOR UPDATE WAS TO LOWER OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE AREA
BASED ON CURRENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS. SURFACE OBS AND MESONET SITES
INDICATE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID TEENS AND ANTICIPATE
TEMPERATURES TO FALL SEVERAL DEGREES FURTHER OVERNIGHT. AN UPPER-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLIDING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO IS GENERATING THE
NEXT ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW THAT IS STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES TONIGHT. EXPECT THIS SNOW TO TRACK EASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLES. THIS FITS THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
THAT BEGINS AT MIDNIGHT SO DO NOT SEE THE NEED TO MAKE ANY
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE ADVISORY. STILL ANTICIPATING SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2 INCHES WITHIN THE ADVISORY...WITH LESS THAN AN
INCH OVER THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.

CLK

&&

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/ NOT MUCH CHANGE TO PREVIOUS THINKING AS LIGHT SNOW WILL
IMPACT THE TERMINALS FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CIGS AND VIS
WILL LOWER INTO THE MVFR AND IFR RANGE...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
FURTHER DETERIORATION TO LIFR. HAVE LEFT OUT MENTION OF LIFR
CONDITIONS GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE. LIGHT SNOW SHOULD END
SATURDAY MORNING...BUT STILL EXPECT MVFR CIGS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY.
POSSIBLE FOR AREAS OF FOG LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE ATTM.

CLK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/ INTERMITTENT LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
TERMINALS THIS EVENING...WITH CIGS AND VIS IN THE MVFR RANGE. NEXT
ROUND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. FLIGHT CONDITIONS WITHIN THIS AREA OF
SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO IFR. SNOW SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE
TERMINALS BY AROUND 12-14Z SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH STILL EXPECT MVFR CIGS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WARM AIR ADVECTION
PROCESSES CAN RESULT IN A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN/SLEET/SNOW SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS SUBTLE UPPER LIFT CAN GENERATE ADDITIONAL PRECIP
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN THE FORECAST ATTM.

CLK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SNOW ROUND ONE HAS WRAPPED UP AND NOW ITS TIME TO GEAR UP FOR SNOW
ROUND TWO.

ROUND TWO STARTS UP LATE TONIGHT AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MOVES OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND INITIATES SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO PLAINS. THIS SNOW WILL ENTER THE FAR WESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING BEFORE SPREADING AREA WIDE
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE HEAVIEST SNOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. FOR THIS AREA 1-2 INCHES OF
STORM TOTAL SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH BY NOON SATURDAY. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL
BE RAISED FOR THE NORTHERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES STARTING
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH NOON SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES ALOFT WARM SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO BRING IN A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY TO PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WE WILL SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
FOR THE I-40 CORRIDOR AND SOUTH WHILE WE HOLD ONTO SNOW NORTH OF THE
CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ALOFT
CONTINUE TO WARM TO WHERE SNOW LOOKS UNLIKELY AREA WIDE AND THE
THREAT OF A LIGHT RAIN/FREEZING RAIN MIX BECOMES MORE LIKELY. THERE
IS THE POSSIBILITY OF ICE ACCUMULATIONS BUT THEY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
A TENTH OF AN INCH.

AFTER THIS FIRST STORM SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE REGION...A CLOSED LOW
WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SRN CA COAST THIS WEEKEND. PNHDLS WILL BE IN SW
FLOW ALOFT WITH MODERATING TEMPS FORESSEN. ALSO...ANY PRECIPITATION
THAT FALLS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WIL LIKELY BE A
WINTRY MIX OF EITHER LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE...LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN...OR LIGHT SLEET. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON ENOUGH WARM AIR WILL BE
PRESENT SUCH THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALL LIQUID.

THEN...A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM AND ITS ATTENDANT SFC COLD
FRONT IS SLATED TO IMPACT THE TX AND OK PNHDLS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT WINTER
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HEMPHILL...
     HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...MOORE...OCHILTREE...ROBERTS...
     SHERMAN.

OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

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