000
FXUS64 KAMA 260830
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
330 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

The axis of yesterday`s trough is lifting over and out of the
area this morning, leaving the Panhandles warm and dry. One sfc
low will be replaced by another, creating just enough of a
pressure gradient for 15-25 mph southwest winds. The southwest TX
Panhandle could see a bit more of a breeze, with gusts over 30 mph
possible during the afternoon hours. These dry, downsloping winds
will help temperatures reach the 80s, while relative humidity
values drop into the teens. Elevated fire weather conditions will
be in place over the western combined Panhandles as a result.

Main focus for the short term resides in Saturday, when a potent
closed low near the Four Corners region provides stronger winds
across the CWA, and perhaps some storms near the TX-OK border.
Placement of the left exit region of an upper level jet streak
would favor a deepening sfc low in the vicinity of SE Colorado to
SW Kansas. Although not terribly impressive, this will generate a
decent pressure gradient over the Panhandles. Windy conditions
will ensue as a result, with sustained southwest winds of 20-30
mph expected across a majority of the Panhandles. Subsidence and
low to mid level lapse rates should be favorable for decent
mixing of stronger winds aloft, allowing for gusts in the 35-45
mph range. With warm, windy, and dry conditions expected,
critical fire weather concerns will return for portions of the
CWA.

We still expect the dryline to mix further east Saturday
afternoon, likely settling along or east of the TX-OK border,
shunting the vast majority of any severe threat out of the
forecast area. If any locations in the Panhandles are going to
hold onto the moist side of the dryline, it would be easternmost
portions of the easternmost stack of counties of the Texas
Panhandle. For this reason, we`ll continue to hold onto <30% POPs
in those areas. Any storms that develop could become severe, but
likely not before quickly crossing into western Oklahoma.

Harrel

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

As the upper level and attendant sfc low depart Saturday night, a
weak cold front will drop south, providing only minimal reductions
in temperatures Sunday. Rising 850mb temps initiate a warming
trend through midweek, as zonal flow to perhaps some subtle ridging
aloft gradually settles in. Afternoon temperatures rebound nicely
to the 70s and 80s Monday, before further escalating towards the
low 90s on Tuesday. The eastern Panhandles will have the best
probability to exceed 90 degrees Tue afternoon, about a 30-60%
chance, along with the typical warm spots. Anticipate dry
conditions to dominate during this timeframe.

By Wed-Thu, there`s high uncertainty regarding whether or not
moisture can make its way back to the region. If it can manifest
for portions of the area, deterministic and ensemble guidance
still hold hope that a minor disturbance could track our way and
bring rain/storm chances. Unfortunately, it doesn`t appear to be
the strongest signal for rain, and it wouldn`t be for the entire
area. Regardless, expect a slight cool down through the end of the
work week. And if it`s any consolation, winds look to behave quite
nicely throughout the period.

Harrel

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1216 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

VFR conditions all around for the 06 TAF cycle. Breezy winds out
of the west-southwest will be around 10-20 kts, with occasional
gusts up to 30 kts possible this afternoon.

Harrel

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                81  51  79  48 /   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  85  51  85  47 /   0   0  10  10
Boise City OK              80  45  74  41 /   0   0  10  10
Borger TX                  86  54  85  50 /   0   0   0  10
Boys Ranch TX              84  51  79  47 /   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  81  50  79  47 /   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               83  51  83  51 /   0   0  10  10
Dalhart TX                 80  44  75  40 /   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  83  48  80  44 /   0   0  10  10
Hereford TX                81  49  78  46 /   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                84  53  85  51 /   0   0  20  10
Pampa TX                   83  53  82  49 /   0   0  10  10
Shamrock TX                84  51  84  52 /   0   0  30  20
Wellington TX              85  53  84  52 /   0   0  30  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...38
LONG TERM....38
AVIATION...38