Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 021709
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1209 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE KDHT MIGHT BE IMPACTED BY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INSERT INTO PREVAILING CONDITIONS. GUSTY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY AND SHIFT BACK
TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN
TOMORROW AS WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MORE OF THE SAME THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BREEZY SOUTH WINDS, WARM
TEMPERATURES, AND MONSOON MOISTURE BRINGING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO PARTS OF THE AREA.

NOT MUCH NEW TO TALK ABOUT THIS MORNING...AS THE PERSISTENT PATTERN
OF LATE LOOKS TO HANG ON FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AN UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH AN UPPER LOW DIGGING ALONG THE COAST OF BC.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THESE TWO UPPER AIR FEATURES CONTINUES
TO BRING MONSOON MOISTURE ACROSS THE DESERT SW AND SOUTHERN
ROCKIES...SPILLING INTO THE WESTERN PANHANDLES. SIMILAR TO THE PAST
FEW DAYS...THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THIS MOISTURE PLUME WILL CLIP THE
NORTHWEST PANHANDLES TODAY. WILL THUS LIKELY SEE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN THESE AREAS ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE PANHANDLES REMAIN DRY.
PERSISTENT LEE SURFACE TROUGHING WILL SUPPORT BREEZY SOUTH WINDS
AGAIN TODAY...HELPING TEMPS CLIMB ABOVE EARLY SEPTEMBER AVERAGES INTO
THE LOW TO MID 90S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THE MONSOON PLUME LOOKS TO GET REJUVENATED BY
MOISTURE EMANATING FROM A TROPICAL DEPRESSION SOUTH OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA. MOST OF THIS MOISTURE WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE PANHANDLES
ON THURSDAY...WITH ONLY FAR WESTERN AREAS NEAR THE NM STATE LINE
SEEING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER BY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THE MOISTURE
PLUME WILL MAKE FURTHER EASTWARD PROGRESS INTO THE AREA AS SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS DOWNSTREAM OF THE DIGGING UPPER LOW OVER THE
PAC NW/GREAT BASIN/NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL SPREAD ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FARTHER EAST INTO THE
PANHANDLES...WITH THESE CHANCES LINGERING THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN
TANDEM WITH THE MONSOON PLUME.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN TRY TO PUSH INTO THE AREA ON LABOR DAY
AS THE PARENT UPPER LOW EJECTS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...POSSIBLY PROVIDING A LITTLE BETTER FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER STRONGER FRONT MAY PUSH THROUGH AROUND
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER JET REMAINS FAIRLY ACTIVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA/NORTHERN U.S.

KB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/9


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