Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 240842
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
342 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Upper level ridge will begin to shift east over the Panhandles,
but another round of afternoon convection is expected before the
break in storm activity on Tuesday. SB CAPE values around
1000-1500 J/kg will allow for some storms to possibly be strong,
but due to weak shear they should pulse and be short lived.

As the ridge moves overhead on Tuesday the chances of storms will
be limited to just the northwest corner of the Panhandles, and
even there the chances look fairly low. This will be short lived
as the high pressure will retrograde back west over the four
corners Tuesday night into Wednesday, returning northwest flow to
the area. Several impulses within the flow will bring a chance for
storms.

By Wednesday evening a shortwave trough associated with a cold
front is expected to generate a line of convection that could
extend from the Panhandles all the way to the Great Lakes region.
It`s possible that the frontal system will be later in the
evening after peak heating, and thusly may not present a severe
weather threat. But we`ll keep an eye out for this frontal system,
as timing could change and favor strong to severe storms Wednesday
or Thursday. With this cold front, 850 temps drop about 5-10
degrees C depending on which model you follow, from Wednesday
evening to Thursday evening.

Temperatures are expected to be on a slow rise as we head back
into the weekend, with showers and storms possible each day.

Weber

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...
VFR conditions to prevail for the majority of the 06Z TAF cycle.
The main aviation concern will be the chance for convection during
the first couple of hours. A boundary is currently moving
westward across the Panhandles and has sparked isolated
convection. Storms may affect KDHT or KAMA but confidence is not
high enough to include in prevailing. Convection is not
anticipated to redevelop until much later in the TAF cycle (mainly
after 18Z). Outside of convection, winds will be light and
shifting back out of the south by the end of this TAF cycle.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                93  68  93  71  96 /  30  20  10   5  10
Beaver OK                 100  71  98  75 100 /  10  10  10   5  20
Boise City OK              93  64  93  69  93 /  10  10  20  10  30
Borger TX                  98  74  97  76  99 /  30  20  10   5  20
Boys Ranch TX              97  70  96  73  97 /  20  20  10   5  20
Canyon TX                  92  67  93  70  96 /  30  20  10   5  10
Clarendon TX               94  70  96  72  97 /  30  20  10   5   5
Dalhart TX                 96  66  94  70  95 /  20  20  20  10  30
Guymon OK                  98  69  97  73  97 /  20  10  10  10  20
Hereford TX                94  67  93  70  95 /  30  20  10   5  10
Lipscomb TX                98  71  98  76 100 /  20  20  10   5  20
Pampa TX                   96  70  95  72  97 /  30  20  10   5  10
Shamrock TX                97  71  97  74 100 /  30  20  10   5   5
Wellington TX              96  70  99  74 101 /  30  20  10   5   5

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

89/24



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