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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KILM 271053
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
653 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in from the north through Saturday
with dry weather expected. A warming trend will develop early
next week as the center of the high shifts to off the southeast
US coast. A cold front will approach the area late next week,
increasing rain chances.

&&

.UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
No significant changes with the 7 AM EDT update.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure will gradually shift south along the Atlantic coast
today. High temperatures near normal, although coastal areas will
stay slightly below normal in onshore flow. Light winds overnight
with patchy clouds keep lows fairly mild; in the mid and upper
50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Sfc high pressure will take up residence over the southeast
coastal waters with a S to SW return flow developing. Meanwhile
an amplified mid to upper level ridge will align itself up the
east coast. This will produce plenty of subsidence and unseasonably
warm temperatures across the region with highs close to 80 on
Sunday most places and into the low to mid 80s on Monday. Temps
closer to the coast will in the mid 70s Sun, but the veering of
winds to a more SW direction on Mon should keep temps a few
degrees warmer on Monday. Model soundings show some potential
for some aftn cu on Sun with moisture under the subsidence
inversion around 5k ft. Monday looks drier in the lower levels with
only a bit of cirrus around. Overnight lows will be warming as
well with readings in the mid 50s most places on Sun night and
around 60 Mon night. Overall, a dry and unseasonably warm
period.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Sfc high pressure will remain anchored off of the southeast
coast through midweek. The mid to upper ridge up the east coast
will shift eastward with a passing shortwave late Tues into
early Wed followed by ridging once again for late Wed into
Thurs. The shortwave should kick off a few shwrs late Tues
through Tues night with trough passing through the area and
offshore by Wed morning. This will be the only minimal chc of
rain until a front approaches toward the weekend. Overall,
expect a warm week with temps running several degrees above
normal with mid 80s for highs most days and above 60 for lows.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR. Mid level cloud cover likely this morning with afternoon
cumulus. Onshore flow today gradually veers as high pressure
slides southward.

Extended Outlook...Predominately VFR expected through early
next week outside of a low chance of morning fog or low cigs
each morning.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...
Onshore flow continues today around 10-15 knots.
Slightly higher winds are possible near the coast where a sea breeze
could develop, albeit weak. High pressure will approach the area
overnight allowing winds to weaken and veer slightly to ESE. Seas
around 3-4 feet.

Sunday through Wednesday...
Winds will veer around from SE on Sun to SW Mon into midweek as
high pressure shifts south over the adjacent waters and takes up
residence off of the Southeast coast. Winds will back slightly
and spike up a bit in the sea breeze each afternoon. Seas will
start out 2 to 4 ft, but will settle to 2 to 3 ft through most
of the week ahead. A longer period easterly swell will mix in.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...21
NEAR TERM...21
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...21
MARINE...RGZ/21