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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KILM 251658
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1258 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in from the north today through
Saturday with dry weather expected. A warming trend will develop
early next week as the high shifts to off the southeast US
coast.

&&

.UPDATE...
No big changes necessary from the previous forecast with this
update.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure building to the north today will bring mostly
sunny skies outside of some surface-based cumulus developing in
patches during the afternoon. Shallow instability near the NC
coast could lead to the development of a sea breeze shower or
two shortly afternoon noon. The bulk of cool air remains
displaced to the north today, allowing afternoon highs to reach
the upper 70s to near 80 across portions of SC. Generally,
temperatures are a degree or two above the guidance mean.
Northeast flow develops this evening as high pressure settles
over New England. Inversion aloft and moisture advecting surface
winds could lead to the development of low level cloud cover
late tonight, especially along the coast. Low temperatures
reflect this chance with the majority of the area in the low and
mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will continue to extend down into the Southeast as
it shifts off the Mid Atlantic coast Fri into Sat. An onshore
flow will persist as the winds shift from the NE to the E and
eventually SE heading into Sun. The onshore winds will be
enhanced both Fri and Sat aftn near the coast in afternoon sea
breeze. Will see a mix of low and high clouds through the
period, including some aftn cu, especially along sea breeze
boundary which should get a decent push inland with easterly
component to the prevailing winds. At the same time, a ridge
will build overhead with increasing heights. This should help
with warming, but the cooler air pushing inland in the afternoon
sea breeze, and overall lower low level thicknesses, expect
temps to be slightly below normal for Fri and Sat. Overnight
lows will be right around normal or slightly above, in the mid
50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Sunday will start a real warming trends as ridge builds overhead
and winds shift to a more S-SW flow early to midweek as high
pressure settles off the Southeast coast. The 850 thicknesses
and H5 heights begin to show a nice rising trend. This will
combine with plenty of bright late April sunshine to support
high temps into the 80s each day. The southerly flow will
support increasing humidity as dewpoints reach closer to 60.
This will also keep overnight lows on the warmer side. The next
cold front should not reach the area until midweek and
therefore aside from a stray sea breeze shwr possible, expect a
mainly rain-free period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR to start off the 18Z TAF period with broad sfc high pressure
centered off to the north and a cold front now offshore. Light
NE winds continue for the remainder of the day. Cannot rule out
a shower this evening over the Cape Fear region but chances are
far too low to include mention in the TAFs. Still expecting low
clouds to develop tonight, but with limited moisture confidence
is low whether this will become a broken deck or not...for now
capped it at SCT.

Extended Outlook...Predominately VFR expected through early next
week outside of a chance of morning fog this weekend.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...Light and variable winds are expected this
morning following a cold front. Increasing northeast flow will
develop by this afternoon as high pressure builds to our north.
Nearshore sea breeze winds around 15 knots will maintain
intensity past sunset, increasing to 15-20 knots this evening.
NE flow will produce increasing seas overnight with 2-3 foot
seas today increasing to 3-4 feet by Friday morning.

Friday through Monday...Onshore flow will continue through much
of the weekend with winds veering from more of a NE flow to the
E ad then SE by Sun, overall diminishing from 15 to 20 on Fri
down to 5 to 10 by late Sat. The afternoon sea breeze should
keep winds higher each afternoon into late day closer to the
coast. Seas will start out in the 3 to 4 or maybe even some 5
fters on Fri in a gusty NE wind, but will diminish to 2 to 4 ft
by Sun, dropping below 3 ft by Mon as winds shift around to more
of a SW to W flow around high pressure establishing itself off
the Southeast coast. A longer period easterly swell will mix
in. No headlines are expected through the period.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...MAS
NEAR TERM...21
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...RGZ/21