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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KILM 271909
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
309 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in from the north through tonight. A
warming trend will develop early next week as the center of the
high shifts to off the southeast US coast. A cold front will
approach the area late next week, increasing rain chances.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
500 mb ridge axis will remain oriented N-S across the Carolinas
through Sunday. The resulting NW flow along the eastern
seaboard will cause surface high pressure to drop from the New
England states to off the SE NC coast by Sunday evening. The
surface high is producing onshore flow along with enough low-
level convergence to pop a few showers across SE NC and across
the Pee Dee region this afternoon. However weak instability,
shallow moisture and a capping inversion will keep convection
low-topped. Ridging aloft will maintain benign weather through
Sunday, with overnight lows mid/upper 50s and Sunday highs in
the upper 70s to around 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Mostly quiet short term period with surface high pressure in the
area. Mostly clear skies Sun night with some mid-level clouds
passing overhead towards Mon AM, lows in the low to mid 50s. The
ridge aloft shifts towards the coast through Mon AM as a shortwave
trough approaches, the high dipping offshore. Some afternoon cu
could develop Mon with highs in the low to mid 80s away from the
coast due to the sea breeze. Clear skies with a breeze as the sea
breeze looks to continue inland overnight, lows in the upper 50s to
lower 60s. The approaching shortwave looks to be accompanied with a
broad area of precip progressing east. Cloud cover should increase
late in the day Tues as this approaches, but much of the area should
still remain dry through the day. Highs in the mid 80s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Low confidence on rainfall amounts associated with the shortwave
passing through Tues night but decided to add low precip chances due
to the decent forcing with the feature. This feature will move
offshore Wed AM with a shortwave ridge building behind the feature,
more surface high pressure approaching. Diurnal isolated
showers/storms remain possible Wed and Thurs afternoon but better
chances will come Fri into Sat due to an approaching cold front and
a possibly stalled surface feature. Highs will increase into the mid
to upper 80s through the latter half of the week with some cooling
possible towards the end of the period due to the cold front.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Onshore flow around surface high pressure is generating some
low-level convergence and a few light showers that may impact
KFLO and KLBT through 21Z. Otherwise VFR. Easterly flow this
afternoon gradually veers as high pressure slides southward
through Sunday.

Extended Outlook...Predominately VFR expected through early
next week outside of a low chance of morning fog or low cigs
each morning.

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Through Sunday: High pressure will drop southeastward from New
England to off the Carolina coast through Sunday. Easterly winds
will veer to the south by late Sunday. Speeds should remain
generally 10-15 kt, although a sea breeze circulation will produce
some 20 kt gusts within a few miles of shore. 3-4 ft seas will primarily
be composed of a ESE swell around 7 sec.

Sunday Night through Thursday...Sub-SCA conditions expected through
the period with minimal rain chances expected over the waters,
highest chances currently Tues night. S/SW winds 10-15 kts may swing
around to the SE late Thursday due to a cold front. Seas 2-3 ft.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...CRM
SHORT TERM...LEW
LONG TERM...LEW
AVIATION...CRM
MARINE...LEW/CRM