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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KILM 270148
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
948 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in from the north through Saturday
with dry weather expected. A warming trend will develop early
next week as the center of the high shifts to off the southeast
US coast. A cold front will approach the area late next week,
increasing rain chances.

&&

.UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
No changes of significance for the evening update.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Surface high pressure centered over New England will shift slowly
eastward through the period while maintaining a ridge of high
pressure southward along the East Coast. Aloft, mid-level ridging
will shift eastward and bring its axis overhead by the end of the
period. This will keep a dry forecast in play with variable
cloudiness as areas of enhanced moisture and subtle lift pass
through at different levels of the atmosphere. With easterly low-
level flow persisting on the south side of the aforementioned
surface high, expect temperatures to remain near-normal to slightly
cooler than normal for this time of year, with tonight`s lows in the
mid-upper 50s and Saturday`s highs in the mid-upper 70s. A notable
warmup awaits from Sunday onward.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The center of high pressure will shift from our north to off the
SC/NC coasts by Sun night, with high pressure aloft through the end
of the period. Dry conditions in store with mid/high level clouds
overnight Sat clearing out through Sun AM, transitioning to some
lower clouds during the aftn due to flow around the shifting high.
Could see a similar situation Mon but with less potent cloud cover,
the thicker clouds to our west. Highs near 80 Sun warming into the
mid 80s Mon. Lows in the mid to upper 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A shortwave trough will push through late Tues into Wed as the
surface high is pushed out to sea where it will linger but further
offshore. Low shower/storm chances are possible Wed and Thurs due to
daytime instability and PWATs 1-1.5". Rain chances will increase
towards the end of the period with another shortwave moving through
Thurs night and an approaching cold front for Fri. Otherwise,
temperatures will be on the rise as 850mb temps hover around 15-17C
paired with mostly sunny skies. A shortwave ridge building in Thurs
ahead of the trough/cold front will likely make it the warmest day
of the period area-wide with highs near 90.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Current widespread VFR continues overnight with low potential
for MVFR/IFR ceilings inland. Increasing clouds aloft and less
moisture at the top of the boundary layer should keep any low
ceilings that develop FEW/SCT but cannot rule out some brief IFR
at inland sites. Have not included any IFR ceilings in the 00Z
TAFs. Winds will be strong enough overnight to keep any fog that
does develop transient and AOA 5SM. VFR again on Sat with an
increase in cloud cover above 5k ft and a sea breeze leading to
afternoon gusts.

Extended Outlook...Predominately VFR expected through early next
week outside of a low chance of morning fog or low cigs each
morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Saturday... With high pressure well to the north, ENE flow
this afternoon will veer to E tonight and continue through Saturday,
with speeds of mainly 10-15 kts with gusts up to around 20 kts. 2-4
ft seas will be primarily driven by easterly wind waves with a
period of 5 seconds.

Saturday Night through Wednesday...E winds will become S by Sun then
SW later in the say due to offshore high pressure centering off the
SC/NC coasts. SW winds will become more S during the afternoons
through the end of the period wind speeds 10-15 kts. Seas 3-4 ft
will become more 2-3 ft as the high moves further offshore Tues.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...III
NEAR TERM...ABW
SHORT TERM...LEW
LONG TERM...LEW
AVIATION...III
MARINE...LEW/ABW