Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29
000
FXUS62 KMLB 190742
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
342 AM EDT Sun Mar 19 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Today-Tonight...A weak cold front approaching north Florida will
drop down the peninsula today and reach south Florida this
afternoon.  A thin band of pre-frontal cloudiness and breezy post-
frontal northwest-north winds will affect the area but no rainfall
will occur. There will be little change in high temps, except in
the north, especially along the Volusia coast, where readings
should struggle to reach 70 degrees. Overnight lows will be in the
upper 40s over the interior. Coastal mins will depend on where a
land breeze develops. Therefore will go with a range of low temps
from the upper 40s well inland to the mid 50s along the barrier
islands.

Monday...Surface high pressure will move southeast through the day
and settle off the NE FL coast by sunset. Light northerly winds over
land at sunrise will become northeast by late morning into the
afternoon. Short range models indicate some moisture trapped below
850 mbs will move onshore along the Treasure Coast into the
afternoon with skies becoming partly cloudy south and mostly sunny
for northern sections. Highs will reach the lower 70s along the
coast and the mid 70s across the interior.

Monday night...Surface high pressure ridge axis will over central FL
overnight with light to calm winds and mostly clear skies. Lows will
drop into the lower 50s most areas, cooler across inland Volusia and
slightly warmer along the Martin county beaches.

Tuesday...The surface ridge over the area in the morning will slip
slowly south by afternoon. Light morning winds are expected with an
east to southeast wind developing along the along the coastal
counties by mid to late afternoon with the east coast sea breeze. A
mainly dry airmass will allow for plenty of sunshine with highs in
the upper 70s near the east coast to around 80 across the interior.

Wed...Surface ridge will move south toward south FL as a frontal
boundary drops south through SC and GA. Low level W-NW flow should
allow highs to reach 80-83 degrees with some increasing clouds
across nrn sections into the afternoon.

Wed Night-Sunday...The tail end of a front and associated moisture
will move toward the area Wed night into Thursday with increasing
low level easterly flow by the daytime hours Thursday as surface
high pressure builds toward the mid Atlantic. Expect breezy winds
along the coast by Thu afternoon with scattered showers moving
onshore through the day. Highs will range from the mid-upper 70s
coast to lower 80s interior. High pressure will move east off the
mid Atlantic into Friday with breezy onshore winds keeping a low
chance for Atlantic showers along the coastal counties Thu night and
across much of east central FL on Friday. Will keep most of the area
dry Saturday for now as mid level ridge moves overhead in the
morning and then eastward by afternoon. Low level ESE/SE could bring
a few light Atlantic showers onshore though. Rain chances will begin
to increase Sunday as GFS/ECM bring a mid level s/w trough and
deeper moisture to the state. Still some timing and intensity
differences with the trough. Ensemble POPs favor low scattered
coverage with showers at this point for Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR expected. Brief ceilings at or above FL035 are possible at a
few terminals early this morning out ahead of an approaching cold
front. The previous model depiction of MVFR ceilings appears to
have been overdone. Post frontal winds from the northwest-north
should gust to around 20 knots at most terminals this afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Today-Tonight..A cold front will drop through the northern waters
this morning and move into south Florida this afternoon.  A
northwest-north wind surge will overspread the waters behind the
front.  Conditions may look inviting nearshore early this morning,
but mariners should be aware that winds/seas will become hazardous
in the open Atlantic today with seas building to 7-8 feet in the
Gulf Stream.

The pressure gradient will start to ease late tonight as a high
pressure ridge noses down into north Florida, but a small craft
advisory will continue in the Gulf Stream.

Monday...NE winds 10-15 knots will decrease some into the afternoon
though seas will remain elevated across the offshore waters and gulf
stream. Will extend SCA into mid morning for the gulf stream and
offshore waters.

Tue...Lighter winds are forecast Tuesday with high pressure ridge
across central FL. Seas should diminish to 3-4 ft near shore and 5
ft offshore.

Wed-Thu...Westerly offshore flow will become NE/E behind a
frontal boundary moving through the waters by Thu. Winds Wed will
be around 10 knots or less with seas 3-4 ft. Expect Small craft
advisory conditions to develop across the northern waters Thu
morning and into the southern waters by afternoon as pressure
gradient tightens with high pressure near the mid Atlc.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Today...A weak cold front will drop through central Florida this
morning and early afternoon, reinforcing the dry airmass in
place. Critically low RH is expected late this afternoon across
the interior, especially along and west of I-4, where min RH
values in the upper 20s are forecast.

In addition, northwest to north winds will gust to around 20 mph and
sustained winds could reach 15 mph. Conditions look marginal and
it`s difficult to pick out exactly where the low RH and 15 mph
winds will coincide, but due to gusty conditions developing, have
drown in a a Red Flag Warning for Orange/Osceola.

Monday...Min RHs will drop to 30-35 percent across Lake county
though winds will be lighter than Sunday so headlines are not
anticipated. Developing NE winds will keep higher Min RHs near the
east coast to 45-50 percent.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  71  48  72  51 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  78  50  76  51 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  75  53  73  51 /   0   0  10   0
VRB  76  53  72  52 /   0   0  10   0
LEE  76  47  75  53 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  76  49  74  51 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  76  51  75  53 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  78  52  73  51 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Red Flag Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EDT this
     evening for Orange-Osceola.

AM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EDT this
     evening for Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet
     0-20 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 AM EDT Monday
     for Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-
     Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard
     County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EDT
     Monday for Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lascody
LONG TERM....Volkmer



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.