Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
FXUS62 KMLB 261844
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
244 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016
The outflow boundary from this morning`s convective complex
continues to sag south and west through the CWA. Relatively stable
northeast flow behind the boundary, along with lingering mid and
upper level clouds have put the kibosh on rain chances in
northeastern sections of CWA (Volusia/N. Brevard/Seminole). Will
maintain scattered shower/storm chances across Lake, Osceola,
Okeechobee as boundary interactions continue alongside ample
surface based instability. Can`t rule out an isolated shower or
storm elsewhere given the amount of heating that has taken place
since the outflow boundary moved through.
An `inverted` mid-level trough and associated PVA will approach
the area from the north and east overnight, likely leading to
additional showers and storms over the Atlantic, especially from
the Cape northward. Given the light steering flow, am not
expecting storms to be able to push back too close to the Volusia
coast. For land areas, will maintain slight chance pops through
about 10PM or so before tapering back rain chances even further.
From Previous Discussion...
MON...Frontal boundary north of the area weakens, while Atlantic
ridge remains east of Florida. This will produce very light winds
in the low levels with sea breeze boundaries developing along both
coasts and steadily moving inland through the afternoon. Models
show moisture decreasing slightly into Monday and temperatures at
500mb increasing by a degree or two. This may produce a decrease
in overall convective coverage compared to Sunday with best chance
for showers and storms continuing to be over the interior with
late day boundary interactions.
Highs will reach the upper 80s along the coast to low 90s over the
interior. However could see mid 90s again over inland areas if
shower/storm development is delayed or less than expected. Lows
will continue to range from the low to mid 70s.
TUE-SAT...Atlantic ridge extends westward into mid to late week,
with ridge axis remaining south of central Florida as another weak
front moves into the southeast U.S. and stalls. Low level winds
become S/SW during this timeframe and generally remain weak enough
for sea breeze to form each afternoon and move slowly inland. This
flow pattern and increasing moisture, with PW values approaching
around 2 inches, will lead to higher rain chances across east
central Florida Tuesday onward. East coast sea breeze should be more
active during this timeframe with boundary collisions enhancing
storm development near to west of I-95 late in the day. Offshore mid
to upper level steering winds will then push any convection back
toward the coast through the evening.
Higher rain chances and increased cloud cover from afternoon showers
and storms should keep highs closer to normal in the upper 80s to
lower 90s. Temperatures overnight will fall into the low to mid 70s.
Generally VFR through the period. TSRA/SHRA look to remain south
and west of the aerodromes through the evening, though KISM/KLEE
will likely see VCSH through 21Z. Onshore flow will weaken and
become light southerly/offshore overnight. Scattered SHRA/TSRA
expected to develop once again Monday afternoon with a focus
toward the interior.
TONIGHT...Conditions for small craft operation remain favorable.
Onshore flow behind this afternoon`s sea breeze circulation will
slacken after sunset and become southerly/southwesterly around 10
knots overnight. Seas remain 1-2 feet.
MON-THU...Favorable boating conditions generally expected to
continue through the work week. Atlantic ridge will build back
westward with ridge axis staying south of the area as weak front
moves into the southeast U.S. and stalls. Winds out of the S/SE
Monday will become S/SW with a more onshore component near the coast
each afternoon as the sea breeze forms and moves inland. Wind speeds
will mainly stay below 15 knots with seas ranging from 1-3 feet.
Expect a chance for offshore moving storms during the afternoon
and evening by Tuesday or Wednesday.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 74 90 74 90 / 20 40 20 50
MCO 75 93 74 92 / 20 40 20 60
MLB 75 89 74 90 / 20 30 20 40
VRB 74 89 73 90 / 20 30 20 40
LEE 76 93 76 92 / 20 50 30 50
SFB 75 93 75 92 / 20 40 20 60
ORL 77 93 75 92 / 20 40 20 60
FPR 72 89 72 90 / 20 30 20 40