Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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413
FXUS62 KMLB 201258
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
858 AM EDT WED JUL 20 2016

...Lower Coverage of Showers and Storms Anticipated Today...

.UPDATE...
A sprawling deep layer ridge centered over the central United
States continues to provide mean easterly flow, albeit weaker
relative to yesterday thanks to some mid/upper troughing moving
down the eastern seaboard.

Latest analysis of satellite imagery and upper air data from this
morning`s radiosonde launch at Cape Canaveral reveals an
atmosphere not particularly conducive to thunderstorm development
over east central Florida. Moisture levels have dropped since
yesterday to anywhere between 1.75 to 1.90" (drying is noted
around 850mb and especially around 600mb). This is showing up
nicely on water vapor imagery as a SW/NE oriented dry tongue
visible across central/southern portions of the CWA. Meanwhile, a
thermal ridge has warmed temperatures several degrees aloft (up to
-5.5C at 500mb or 20,000 feet). Given these factors, have opted to
drop precipitation coverage down to slight/low-end chance for this
afternoon (20-30%). Though the slackening low level flow will
likely lead to a more defined sea breeze (and a subsequent boost
in updraft initiation), a hostile environment just above the
surface suggests showers/storms will have trouble maintaining
themselves.

What showers and storms do form today will gradually shift west
with the sea breeze and eventually to the western side of the
Peninsula before sunset this evening. Warm and humid conditions
(no surprise given the time of year) with highs above 90 nearly
everywhere save for the immediate coast.

Aside from the drop in PoPs, no other concerns with the morning
forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
Overall coverage of SHRA/TSRA expected to be less today relative
to Tuesday. Isolated SHRA/TSRA with brief reductions in vsby/cig
along the coast through late this morning along coastal terminals
will shift inland through the afternoon. Easterly flow continues.

&&

.MARINE...
Easterly winds 5-10 knots this morning will increase to around
10-15 knots nearshore by early afternoon under the influence of
the local sea breeze circulation. Seas generally 2 to 3 feet with
perhaps some 4 feet well offshore.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  91  77  90  77 /  20  10  30  20
MCO  93  76  93  76 /  30  10  40  20
MLB  90  79  90  78 /  20  20  40  20
VRB  90  76  90  78 /  30  20  40  20
LEE  94  77  94  76 /  30  10  40  20
SFB  93  76  93  76 /  30  10  30  20
ORL  93  77  92  77 /  30  10  40  20
FPR  89  76  89  76 /  30  20  40  20

&&

.MLB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

Ulrich/Johnson



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