Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 081542 AAA
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1040 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...

W/SW FLOW WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT...
BECOMING BREEZY WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY. HI
RES VIS SAT IMAGERY SHOWS GULF STRATOCU PUSHING ONSHORE THE FL GULF
COAST AND THIS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON SO
AFTER A SUNNY MORNING...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON. PROSPECT FOR RAIN CONTINUES TO LOOK TOO LOW TO MENTION
THRU THE AFTN. LOCAL WRF AND HRRR MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME LIGHT
PRECIP MOVING INTO THE FA THIS EVE AND OVERNIGHT ASSOCD WITH THE
NEXT COLD FRONT. AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LOW...LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN
INCH.

TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING QUICKLY THROUGH THE 50S THIS MORNING WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE MID 60S AREAWIDE THIS AFTN...WITH A FEW UPPER 60S
POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH MILDER THAN YESTERDAY...THESE TEMPS ARE STILL
5 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. NO SIG CHANGES NEEDED TO CURRENT FCST.

&&

.AVIATION... VFR CONDS GENERALLY EXPECTED THRU 12Z TUE. CLOUD COVER
WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING BKN-OVC INTO TONIGHT... BUT
CIGS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 040 AGL. MAY SEE TEMPO MVFR
CONDS WITH -SHRA AS THEY PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND REMAIN
ELEVATED AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT...VEERING TO THE
NORTHWEST. WIND SPEEDS UP TO 15-20 KTS GENERALLY EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CURRENT COASTAL WATERS FCST.
TODAY/TONIGHT...BOATING CONDITIONS REMAIN HAZARDOUS TODAY...BECOMING
VERY HAZARDOUS INTO TONIGHT AS A REINFORCING COLD FRONT APPROACHES
AND MOVES SOUTHWARD OVER THE WATERS. W/NW WINDS 15-20 KNOTS THIS
MORNING INCREASE RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...REACHING UP TO
25-30 KNOTS OFFSHORE WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE EXPECTED.
THESE WINDS WILL BUILD SEAS BACK UP TO 10-11 FEET OFFSHORE. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES OVER THE WATERS WITH A GALE WARNING NOW
GOING INTO EFFECT OFFSHORE STARTING THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGHS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...
REACHING THE MID 60S...AND WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS OVER THE AREA
EXPECTING TO SEE MIN RH VALUES AS LOW AS THE MID 30S. IN
ADDITION...WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON
GENERATING EXCELLENT DISPERSION VALUES AND INCREASE FIRE
SENSITIVITY. HOWEVER ERC VALUES REMAIN VERY LOW.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  65  43  58  36 /  10  30  10  10
MCO  65  45  59  41 /  10  30  10  10
MLB  65  44  61  42 /   0  20  10  10
VRB  65  45  63  44 /   0  20  10  10
LEE  66  44  58  40 /  10  30  10  10
SFB  66  43  59  38 /  10  30  10  10
ORL  65  44  59  42 /  10  30  10  10
FPR  66  48  63  44 /   0  20  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR FLAGLER BEACH
     TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO
     JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR FLAGLER
     BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-SEBASTIAN
     INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE
     TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM TUESDAY TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-
     SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD
     COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-
     SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD
     COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

&&

$$

KELLY/SPRATT


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