Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 010056
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
855 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...

RADAR TREND HAS BEEN DECREASING COVERAGE SOUTH TO NORTH. THE STORMS
AND SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN LAKE AND ORANGE COUNTIES AND NORTH WILL
CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS THEY LIFT NORTH TOWARD VOLUSIA...SEMINOLE
AND NORTH LAKE COUNTIES THE REST OF THE EVENING. EVENING UPDATE TO
REMOVE SHOWERS AND STORMS BEFORE MIDNIGHT. REST OF THE FORECAST NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES

PREVIOUS ZONES DISCUSSION

CURRENT-TONIGHT...915MHZ CAPE PROFILERS CONTINUE TO SHOW DEEP SSE/S
FLOW FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH 10.0KFT. 15Z KXMR SOUNDING PROFILE
SHOWS MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES (700/500MB, +9.3C/-5.7C) RESPECTIVELY
WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 1.94 INCHES.

CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS GOTTEN OFF TO A SLOW START BUT STILL
EXPECTING SCT-NMRS SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH SLOWLY INLAND. EXPECT INITIAL SHOWERS/STORMS TO FORM ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY AND JUST INLAND WITH COVERAGE INCREASING THROUGH LATE DAY
AND NORTH/WEST FROM THE TREASURE COAST. WILL KEEP 60 TO 70 PERCENT
POPS ALONG THE I-4 CORRIDOR AND TAPER DOWN TO AROUND 40 TO 50
PERCENT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE MARTIN COUNTY COAST. THE LOCAL HRRR
MODEL ALSO SUGGESTS STRONGER STORMS/HIGHER COVERAGE FROM OSCEOLA
COUNTY NORTHWARD WITH ADDITIONAL BOUNDARY COLLISIONS PRESENT AND
WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE LIES. WILL PERFORM A PRE-FIRST PERIOD WORDING
FOR THE AFTERNOON ZONES PACKAGE.

HEAVY RAINFALL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 45 MPH
WILL CONTINUE AS THREATS. HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS AND NUISANCE FLOODING IN LOW-LYING AREAS AS WELL
AS ANYWHERE ELSE WHERE ABUNDANT RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED OVER RECENT
DAYS. CELL MOVEMENT WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NORTH AT
AROUND 20 MPH.

TUE-WED...REMNANTS/TROPICAL WAVE ERIKA WILL DRIFT SLOWLY WESTWARD
TOWARD LOUISIANA. ALBEIT WEAK...THE ATLC SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS
BACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL FL PENINSULA. IN FACT...DEEP
LAYER RIDGING WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC JUST OFF OF THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY WEAK. WILL SEE THE DAILY SEA BREEZE REGIME DEVELOPING AND
PUSHING SLOWLY INLAND EACH AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
REMAIN AROUND 2 INCHES. MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY WARM WITH
500 MB READINGS AROUND -5C/-6C. STORM MOTION RELATIVELY WEAK AT LESS
THAN 10 KTS SO ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL MAY CONTINUE TO CAUSE
NUISANCE FLOODING IN A FEW SATURATED LOCATIONS ACROSS ECFL. STILL
EXPECT TO SEE SCT AFTN/EVENING CONVECTION WITH GREATEST CHANCES
ACROSS THE I-4 CORRIDOR.

...PREVIOUS EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION...

THU-SUN...AVG WX PATTERN FOR LATE SUMMER/EARLY AUTUMN. A WEAK
FRONTAL TROF WILL PRESS DOWN THE ERN SEABOARD THRU LATE WEEK.
HOWEVER...WITH THE JET STREAM LOCATED SO FAR TO THE N...THE TROF
WILL WASH OUT BEFORE IT CAN DISPLACE THE ATLC RIDGE IN A SIGNIFICANT
MANNER. BY WEEK`S END...THE TROF WILL BE BRIDGED BY A STRONG
CONTINENTAL TROF THAT BOTH GFS/ECMWF MODELS DEVELOP ACRS THE ERN
CONUS. SCT DIURNAL POPS AND TEMPS WITHIN 5F OF CLIMO AVGS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR 01/02Z-01/15Z. TEMPO MVFR 01/15Z-01/20Z AS THE SEA
BREEZES FORM AMD SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS FORM ON IT AS IT PUSHES
INLAND. INTERIOR/WEST OF I 95 VFR 01/04Z-01/18Z FROM 01/20Z TO
02/00Z TEMPO MVFR/IFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY N AND NEAR SCT TSRA.

PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION

DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A MOIST ATMOS WILL RESULT IN SCT-
NMRS SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY WILL RESULT THROUGH VARIOUS BOUNDARY COLLISIONS ESPECIALLY
TOWARD THE I-4 CORRIDOR. VCTS MAINLY AFT 19Z WITH ASSOC TEMPO
GROUPS. TEMPO IFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBYS INVOF CONVECTION. DIURNAL ACTIVITY
WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY THROUGH THE EVENING WITH MAINLY
DRY CONDS OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT PERHAPS ISOLD ACTIVITY NEAR THE COAST.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL FALL TO LIGHT/CALM. WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN
THE LOW-LEVELS THERE MAY BE SOME SHALLOW/PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT IN
PRONE SPOTS LATE OVERNIGHT/EARLY TUE MORNING. SCT TSRA AGAIN TUE
AFTERNOON WITH GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS I-4/INTERIOR.

&&

.MARINE...

CURRENT-OVERNIGHT...NOAA BUOYS RECORDING SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15
KNOTS AND 3 FOOT SEAS. THE TWO SCRIPPS BUOYS AT 4 AND 6NM OFF THE
BEACHES WERE RECORDING 3 FOOT SEAS. FORECAST/GRID WINDS A LITTLE
COMPARED TO LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS. WILL INVEST BUMPING THE
FORECAST WINDS UP A FEW KNOTS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THE
FORECAST SEAS ARE OK WITH RESPECT TO THE OBSERVED SEA HEIGHT
FORECASTS.

PREVIOUS MARINE ZONES DISCUSSION

CURRENT-TONIGHT...REMNANTS OF ERIKA/WEAK INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL VERY SLOWLY PUSH WESTWARD THRU THE
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW THE ATLC RIDGE TO BUILD FURTHER EAST INTO
ECFL. A PERSISTENT LONG PERIOD SWELL CONTINUES OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. S/SSE WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING TO 5-10 KTS NEAR
SHORE AND AROUND 10 KTS OVER THE OPEN ATLC. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE TO 3-4 FT TONIGHT.

THERE WILL BE A HIGHER COVERAGE OF STORMS NORTH OF THE CAPE WITH
LOWER (POSSIBLY MUCH LOWER) COVERAGE OVER THE TREASURE COAST WATERS.
STORM MOTION WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SO SOME
STORMS NEAR THE COAST...ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE...MAY PUSH
ACROSS INTRACOASTAL/NEAR SHORE ATLC WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE FORECAST TONIGHT.

TUE-FRI...FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE
UPCOMING WEEK AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS MAINTAINS A LIGHT TO
GENTLE E/SE BREEZE ACRS THE LCL ATLC. SEAS GENERALLY 2-3 FT THRU
WEEK`S END.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...SHINGLE CREEK AT CAMPBELL (SHIF1) REMAINS WITHIN 0.85
FOOT OF FLOOD STAGE. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR PERSISTENT RAINFALL OVER
THE BASIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  90  75  91 /  30  50  40  60
MCO  74  92  75  92 /  30  50  30  60
MLB  76  91  76  90 /  30  40  30  40
VRB  74  91  75  90 /  30  40  30  40
LEE  76  90  76  92 /  30  50  30  60
SFB  75  92  76  93 /  30  50  30  60
ORL  76  92  77  93 /  30  50  30  60
FPR  74  91  74  90 /  30  40  30  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.

AM...NONE.
&&

$$

IMPACT WX...SPRATT
HYDRO.......GLITTO
UPDATES.....WIMMER



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