Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 181855
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
250 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT/SUN...LIGHT W-NW FLOW SHOULD SUBSIDE AT DUSK BECOMING NEAR
CALM FOR THE NIGHT TIME PERIOD. A PLEASANTLY COOL EVENING UNDER
CLEAR SKIES WILL OCCUR WITH LOWS IN THE U50S TO AROUND 60.

THE DRY AIRMASS PROVIDED BY HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITING EWD ACROSS THE
MID ATLC STATES WL KEEP MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH DEVELOPMENT OF
ONSHORE FLOW DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT HIGHS A LITTLE WARMER THAN
SATURDAY WITH LOW TO MID 80S. EXCEPT AROUND 80 ALONG THE COAST WHERE
WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHEAST. DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES
WL CONTINUE DUE TO REMNANT LONG PERIOD SWELL.

MON-TUE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS MON SLIDES
EWD AND WEAKENS ON TUESDAY. RESIDUAL MOISTURE/CONVG BAND ALONG OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY COUPLED WITH ONSHORE (EASTERLY) FLOW  COULD RESULT
IN A FEW SHOWERS OFFSHORE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COS BEGINNING SUN NIGHT...
PERHAPS REACHING THE COAST FROM AROUND THE CAPE NWD MON-MON NIGHT.
BY TUE...STRONG NRN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE
ERN CONUS WITH BACKING MID LEVEL FLOW PULLING SOME MOISTURE BACK
NWD INTO THE STATE. COULD SEE A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM ACROSS THE
SRN 3 COUNTIES LATE TUE AFTN AS YET ANOTHER WEAK REINFORCING COOL
FRONT SLIDES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. TEMPS AVERAGE ABOUT A
CAT ABOVE NORMAL ON MON...AND THEN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE ON TUE.

WED-FRI...(PREV MODIFIED) CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE MID ATLC
REGION AND SLOWLY MEANDERS EASTWARD THROUGH LATE WEEK. SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL
INITIALLY LIFT SUNDAY NIGHT`S FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTHWARDS MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY BEFORE IT DROPS BACK TO THE SOUTH AND MEANDERS
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA THROUGH THURSDAY.

BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW THE TAIL END OF THE BOUNDARY TAPPING INTO A
LARGE POOL OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE/NW CARIB
INTO MID-WEEK AS A BROAD DISTURBANCE FOLLOWS ALONG THE BOUNDARY
DURING THE SAME PERIOD. 18/00Z GFS SEEMS TO HAVE COME ON BOARD WITH
KEEPING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH AND SUPPRESSING THE BEST
MOISTURE RETURN OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. WITH THIS...WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS MID WEEK AT 30-40% AND CONFINED TO THE
TREASURE COAST AND OKEECHOBEE WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANE FURTHER
NORTH. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SHARP DEMARCATION WHERE THE RAIN/NO
RAIN LINE SETS UP WHICH MAY MOVE EACH DAY TUES-THURS DEPENDING ON
LOCATION OF THE FRONT...BUT WILL GENERALLY KEEP AREAS ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-4 DRY.

CUT OFF UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW FINALLY MOVE FAR ENOUGH
EAST TO BRING THE FRONT THROUGH THE STATE LATE THURS WITH A DRY
FORECAST EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY.IF FASTER/FURTHER SOUTH ECMWF PANS
OUT...COULD SEE DRY CONDITIONS ON THURS AS WELL. HOWEVER GFS`S
ENHANCED NE FLOW CONVERGENCE MAY KEEP RAIN LINGERING THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND IF THAT SCENARIO PANS OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT/SUN...BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CROSSING THE MID ATLC
SEABOARD WILL SHIFT WINDS ONSHORE. PRIMARY COMPONENT OF A LONG
PERIOD SWELL WL KEEP COMBINED WV HGHTS NR 4-5 FT.

MON-THU...ONSHORE FLOW WEAKENS AND VEERS TO S-SE MONDAY AS REMNANT
BOUNDARY LIFTS NWD. FLOW BECOMES LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS REINFORCING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS INTO CTRL FL AND STALLS OUT FROM MID LATE
WEEK TUE-WED. ONSHORE FLOW WILL FRESHEN LATE WED-THU BETWEEN SFC
HIGH PRES OVER THE CTRL-ERN CONUS AND DEVELOPING BAROCLINIC LOW
PRES AREA IN THE SRN GOMEX. SEAS 2-4FT MON...SUBSIDING TO 1-3FT
TUE-WED...THEN BUILDING AGAIN INTO THU IN FRESHENING ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS WL BEGIN TO MODIFY SUN AFTN DUE TO MORE
PRONOUNCED DEVELOPMENT ONSHORE FLOW. LOWEST RH WL BE CONFINED WELL
INLAND BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR SEVERAL HOURS IN THE AFTERNOON.
DISPERSION VALUES SHOULD IMPROVE SLIGHTLY FROM SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  62  82  64  82 /   0   0  10  20
MCO  61  84  64  85 /   0   0  10  10
MLB  63  83  67  84 /   0   0  10  10
VRB  59  84  66  84 /   0   0  10  10
LEE  60  84  63  84 /   0   0  10  10
SFB  61  84  65  84 /   0   0  10  10
ORL  63  84  66  85 /   0   0  10  10
FPR  59  83  66  84 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PENDERGRAST
LONG TERM....CRISTALDI
AVIATION...PENDERGRAST







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