000
FXUS62 KMLB 140727
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
327 AM EDT FRI JUN 14 2013

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT...LARGE SCALE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS SRN MS/AL/GA APPEARS
TO BE SLOWING ITS SWD PUSH SOME AND LOSING CONVECTIVE VIGOR AS IT
APPROACHES THE NORTH FLORIDA BORDER. TO THE SOUTH...MILD SW FLOW IS
KEEPING TEMPS IN THE M-U70S AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY UNDER MCLR SKIES.

TODAY/TONIGHT...SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO VEER MORE TO WRLY AS THE
BDRY TO THE NORTH SAGS INTO NORTH FL. EXPECT THAT ANY LOCAL DIURNAL
CONVECTION WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON WHAT DEVELOPS IN CONVGT AREA AHEAD
(SOUTH) OF THIS FEATURE...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT...AHEAD (WEST) OF
THE WCSB AS WRLY FLOW SHOULD OVERWHELM ANY ECSB THAT TRIES TO FORM.
MEAN PWATS NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE (1.3" TO 1.5") IN THE AIR MASS
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...BUT HIGHER POOLED MOISTURE INVOF IT SHOULD
LEAD TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WORKING THEIR WAY INTO OUR NRN
(AND POSSIBLY CTRL) CWA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. OTRW...ANOTHER HOT
AND HUMID DAY ON TAP WITH L-M90S AREAWIDE AND MINS IN THE L-M70S.

SAT-SUN...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ON
SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT MOVED ACROSS THE PENINSULA ON
THURSDAY PULLS FURTHER AWAY. RIDGE FLATTENS OUT ACROSS THE STATE
INTO SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SCOOTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN US.

AT THE SURFACE...SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC LEAVING ITS RIDGE AXIS JUST TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE GFS IS A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING IN DRIER
AIR BEHIND THE WEAK BOUNDARY CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PART
OF THE STATE WHILE THE THE ECMWF WASHES IT OUT SOMEWHERE BETWEEN
CAPE CANAVERAL AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE WHICH SEEMS MORE REASONABLE GIVEN
THE TIME OF YEAR. WITH A LITTLE DRIER AIR AND SUPPRESSION FROM THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES AT 20 PERCENT OR LOWER
ESPECIALLY GIVEN THAT THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL TEND TO SHIFT ANY
DEVELOPMENT MORE TOWARDS THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE STATE.

HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW 90S OVER THE INTERIOR AND UPPER 80S/AROUND 90
AT THE COAST. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS TO THE
COAST IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S WITH LOW TO MID 70S OVER THE
INTERIOR.

MON-THU...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THROUGH THE
COURSE OF THE WEEK AS EAST-WEST ORIENTED 500MB RIDGE OVER FLORIDA
SLOWLY WEAKENS AND SHIFTS SOUTH. SEVERAL SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST OVER THE TOP OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL PUSH THE
RIDGE AXIS INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA ON MONDAY AND SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

WITH THE RIDGE A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH...MODELS KEEP THE BEST
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
CARRIBEAN DURING THE WEEK WELL SOUTH. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE A SLOW
INCREASE IN MOISTURE THROUGH THE WEEK AND THE SHIFT IN STEERING FLOW
OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WILL CONCENTRATE MORE STORMS ON THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA. POPS ON MON AND TUES WILL BE 20
COAST/30 INTERIOR AS THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE ABLE TO PUSH FURTHER
INLAND WITH 30/40 EVERYWHERE WED-THURS AS IT MAKES LESS OF AN INLAND
PUSH.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. MAY DECIDE TO THROW SOME AFTERNOON VCTS INTO THE
NRN AERODROMES (LEE-SFB-DAB) WITH THE 12Z PACKAGE...OTHERWISE POPS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN FCST ATTM.

&&

.MARINE...WRLY FLOW 10-15KT WITH SEAS 2-3FT NEAR SHORE AND 3-4 WELL
OFFSHORE. BOTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE AS LOCAL PGRAD COLLAPSES
AHEAD OF SFC FRONTAL TROUGH/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS MOVING RAPIDLY OFFSHORE NORTH OF
CAPE CANAVERAL.

SAT-SUN...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT EAST-NORTHEAST WIND SURGE SAT
MORN/EARLY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OUT ACROSS
THE STATE AND HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC. WILL SEE WINDS VEERING FROM NORTH AROUND 5KTS IN THE
MORNING TO EAST 10-15KTS OVER ALL THE WATERS BY THE AFTERNOON. RIDGE
AXIS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL BRING A FAIRLY STEADY 10-15KTS
EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN
ISOLATED.

MON-TUES...EASTERLY FLOW WILL WEAKEN AND VEER SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AS
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS DRIFTS SOUTH THROUGH MID WEEK. SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET.
THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE INTO MID WEEK
WITH OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS BECOMING A BETTER POSSIBILITY AFTER
TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  93  74  87  73 /  40  20  20  10
MCO  93  73  92  73 /  20  20  20  10
MLB  92  73  88  77 /  20  20  20  10
VRB  92  72  89  74 /  20  20  20  10
LEE  93  74  92  73 /  30  20  20  10
SFB  94  74  91  73 /  30  20  20  10
ORL  93  75  92  74 /  30  20  20  10
FPR  91  71  89  74 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM....MOSES