Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 251946
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
346 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT-TONIGHT...CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER EARLY IN THE DAY
LIMITED HEATING WHICH HAS KEPT SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE LOWER
THAN EXPECTED SO FAR. HOWEVER WITH BREAKS IN CLOUDS OVER NORTH
CENTRAL FL...HRRR AND WRF INDICATE INCREASING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
FROM ORLANDO NORTHWARD INTO LATE AFT. ADDITIONAL STORMS PUSHING
OFFSHORE THE TREASURE COAST WILL WEAKEN WITH AREAS OF RAIN
LINGERING. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE INTO THE EVENING...AND PAST
MIDNIGHT NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN ISOLATED SHOWERS. HOWEVER AN
INCREASING E/NE FLOW NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS
EXPECTED TO SETTLE TOWARD THE CAPE MAY ALLOW FOR ONSHORE MOVING
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVERNIGHT ALONG VOLUSIA COUNTY COAST.

SUN...MODELS KEEP FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA
TOMORROW...NEAR THE CAPE. STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW AND DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL PERSIST SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH WEAKER ONSHORE
FLOW TO THE NORTH. POTENTIAL FOR CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER OVER THE
AREA WILL AGAIN BE A LIMITING FACTOR IN OVERALL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER IF SUFFICIENT HEATING OCCURS THEN SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES ELEVATED AND HAVE
POPS RANGING FROM 50 PERCENT FROM VOLUSIA TO NRN BREVARD COUNTY UP
TO 60 TO 70 PERCENT FARTHER SOUTH AND INLAND. A FEW STRONGER
STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING...GUSTY
WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

MON-WED...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE BOUNDARY SLOWLY ELONGATE AND WEAKEN
ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH THE ECMWF STILL
CONSIDERABLY STRONGER IN HOLDING ONTO LOWER HEIGHTS OVER THE
PENINSULA. OVERALL THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY...OR ITS REMNANTS...WILL
MEANDER OVER THE PENINSULA THROUGH MID WEEK. RAIN CHANCES ON THE
NORTH SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY..GENERALLY NORTH OF THE CAPE...WILL BE
LOWER IN STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW AND A DRIER AIRMASS. BEST RAIN
CHANCES CURRENTLY ON MONDAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS 60-70% AND THEN
LOWER COVERAGE INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AT 40-50% AS SOME OVERALL
DRYING WORKS INTO THE AREA AND THE TROUGH FURTHER WASHES OUT.

THU-FRI...
BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE 25/00Z RUNS IN THE LATE WEEK SYNOPTIC
PATTERN THOUGH DIFFERENCES REMAINS. GFS CONTINUES TO BE MUCH FASTER
IN REBUILDING THE LOW WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE BACK ACROSS THE
PENINSULA WHILE ALSO SEEING RISING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS AS RIDING
BUILDS IN FROM THE ATLANTIC. THE ECMWF IS NOW ON A SIMILAR TRACK...
BUT HOLDS ONTO A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE STATE A DAY LONGER AND KEEP
PATTERN A LITTLE MORE UNSETTLED. OVERALL TREND LOOKS TO BE FOR POPS
TO TREND TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES AROUND 40% BY THE END OF
THE WEEK THROUGH BRISK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACTIVITY
BACK TOWARDS THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE PENINSULA.

&&

.AVIATION...TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS WILL OCCUR WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA
THROUGH SUNSET. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE INTO THE EVENING BUT CAN
NOT RULE OUT ISO SHOWERS INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE REGION. MAY SEE PREDOMINANT MVFR CIGS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE REGION DUE TO PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT...BUT CURRENTLY
GUIDANCE IS NOT HINTING AT IT. WILL THEREFORE LEAVE OUT OF THE
TAFS FOR NOW.

&&

.MARINE...

TONIGHT...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
WITH OFFSHORE FLOW REMAINING UP TO 10-15 KNOTS SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...OR SOUTH OF THE CAPE. SEAS WILL RESIDE AROUND 2-3
FEET. A FEW STORMS GENERATING GUSTY WINDS MAY STILL PUSH OFFSHORE
FROM THE CAPE SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS REGION WILL RESULT IN EAST-
NORTHEAST WINDS NORTH OF THE CAPE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS ALONG THE
TREASURE COAST SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...THOUGH EXACTLY WHERE WIND
FIELD SETS UP WILL DEPEND ON BOUNDARY. BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH BY LATE
MONDAY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS OVERSPREADING OVER ALL THE WATERS INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. SEAS 2-3FT WITH UP TO 4FT WELL OFFSHORE. MAIN BOATING
CONCERN WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE MOVING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...BOUNDARY MEANDERS NEAR VOLUSIA COUNTY RESULTING
IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE ADJACENT WATERS WITH SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10KTS ELSEWHERE OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC. SEAS
CONTINUE AROUND 2-3FT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  86  76  89 /  30  50  30  50
MCO  75  88  75  91 /  30  60  30  60
MLB  74  88  76  91 /  40  60  30  60
VRB  74  88  74  90 /  40  70  30  60
LEE  76  88  76  92 /  30  60  30  60
SFB  75  88  76  91 /  30  50  30  60
ORL  75  88  76  91 /  30  60  30  60
FPR  75  87  75  91 /  40  70  30  60

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...WEITLICH
AVIATION/RADAR....JOHNSON



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