Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 021942
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
342 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...GRADIENT FLOW WITH NLY WIND AFTER DARK WL
BECOME LIGHT WITH DRAINAGE CONDS SETTING UP LATE TONIGHT INLAND.
ONSHORE WINDS WL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
PLEASANTLY COOL READINGS IN THE UPR 50 INLAND AND LWR TO MID 60S
AT THE COAST WITH A SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS. SUNDAY EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY
WARM CONDS WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ONSHORE WINDS...BREEZY IN
THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST MODERATING TEMPS AND HUMIDITY.
EXPECT HIGHS AROUND IN THE 80S WITH A DRY FORECAST.

MON-TUE...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT MOVES OFF THE
NORTHEASTERN US OVER THE WEEKEND LEAVES WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE FL
STRAITS/NW CARRIBEAN INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH
CENTER MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY AND SCOOTS FURTHER
EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC.

BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW STILL ON TAP AS THE GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE
TIGHTENS WITH THE LOWER PRESSURES AND MOISTURE ALONG THE REMNANT
SURFACE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH LIFTING NORTHWARDS. A FEW ONSHORE MOVING
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND AS EARLY AS MONDAY...HOWEVER BETTER
CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE INTO TUESDAY AS WEAK DISTURBANCE DEVELOPS
OVER THE BAHAMAS AND WE SEE DEEPER MOISTURE COMBINE WITH A WEAK
VORTICITY MAX AND BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COAST. BEST
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ALONG THE TREASURE COAST WHERE HIGHEST MOISTURE
WILL RESIDE.

HIGHS WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE IN THE UPPER 70S/AROUND 80 ALONG THE
COAST TO LOW-MID 80S INLAND.

WED-FRI...MAIN FEATURE TO WATCH INTO THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL LOW/VORT MAX THAT LIFTS NORTH
OUT OF THE BAHAMAS MID WEEK.

LATEST GFS AND ECMWF HAVE DIVERGED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THEIR PREVIOUS
CONSENSUS IN THE STRENGTH/TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...THOUGH THE TREND
REMAINS TO KEEP IT OFFSHORE THE FL PENINSULA. THE ECMWF REMAINS MORE
CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A WEAK FEATURE CONTINUOUSLY LIFTING NORTH WELL
EAST OF FLORIDA WHILE THE GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARDS A STRONGER
BLOCKING RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND A SLOWER AND STRONGER SYSTEM. THESE
DIFFERENCES SEEM TO HAVE LESS IMPACT ON RAIN COVERAGE AND MORE
TOWARDS WINDS AND MARINE ISSUES. BOTH CONTINUE TO WRAP SIGNIFICANT
DRY AIR AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM BRINGING DECREASING RAIN
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
RISE THROUGH THE PERIOD RANGING FROM NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...REDUCED WINDS OVERNIGTH WITH 2-4FT SEAS CAN
BE EXPECTED. WINDS AROUND 10KT WITH 10-15 KTS OFFSHORE DURING SUN
WITH WINDS AND SEAS AVERAGING 3 TO 5 FT ALONG WITH PRESENCE OF A
DEVELOPING SWELL IN ONSHORE FETCH CONDITIONS.

MON-WED...GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN STALLED BOUNDARY SOUTH OF
FLORIDA AND HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION. STEADY EAST TO
EAST- NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH A
STEADY 20 KNOTS AT TIMES THROUGH MID WEEK.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE BEYOND TUES DROPS CONSIDERABLY AS MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN HOW AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTING OUT OF THE
BAHAMAS EAST OF FLORIDA IS HANDLED ARE MAGNIFIED. THE TREND LOOKS TO
BE FOR WINDS BACKING NORTHEAST WITH SOME DECREASE IN SPEED AS
GRADIENT WEAKENS. OVERALL HOWEVER...POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEAS UP TO 6-7 FEET
DUE TO A LONG EAST FETCH AND DEVELOPING LOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  58  79  64  79 /   0   0  10  10
MCO  60  83  64  83 /   0  10   0  10
MLB  62  80  66  80 /   0   0  10  20
VRB  61  80  64  80 /   0   0  10  20
LEE  59  84  63  83 /   0   0   0  10
SFB  58  82  62  82 /   0  10  10  10
ORL  61  82  64  81 /   0  10   0  10
FPR  60  80  64  81 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PENDERGRAST
LONG TERM....MOSES



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