Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 140105
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
905 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...
ONSHORE FLOW HAS INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LED TO A
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF STRATOCUMULUS BENEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AS ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
RETREATS SEAWARD.  ENOUGH OF AN ONSHORE COMPONENT WILL PERSIST AND A
FEW SHOWERS COULD PUSH INTO THE COAST ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPE
SOUTHWARD.  DO NOT PLAN MUCH CHANGE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.

MON...
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
MOISTURE DEPTH AND PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASING A LITTLE.  THERE
MAY BE A LATE DAY EAST/WEST SEA BREEZE COLLISION WHICH GENERATES A
LITTLE MORE VIGOROUS CONVECTION.  THE GFS SUGGESTS THIS WILL BE OVER
OUR NORTH SECTIONS BUT MOS POPS ARE 10 PERCENT OR LESS.  THE 18Z NAM
IS MORE AGGRESSIVE AND GENERATES PRECIP ALONG OUR ENTIRE EAST SIDE
OF THE PENINSULA.  THE MAIN INHIBITING FACTOR WILL BE THE INITIAL
DRY LAYER ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.  THE LOCAL WRF DOES NOT
SHOW A LOT OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING...SO CURRENT FORECAST THAT HAS A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS LOOKS OKAY RIGHT NOW.  TEMPS IN
THE MID-UPPER 80S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S WILL MAKE FOR
A WARM AND MORE HUMID FEELING DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...A MORE MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR SOME STRATUS
TO FORM LATE TONIGHT.  DID NOT MENTION CEILINGS YET SINCE THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE STRATOCUMULUS NOW AND MOISTENING SOUTHEAST FLOW MAY
ALLOW FOR AREAS OF STRATOCUMULUS TO PERSIST. A SMALL CHANCE FOR
COASTAL SHOWERS EXISTS OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF KTIX TO
KSUA...AND AGAIN MON AFTERNOON BUT PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO
CONSIDER FOR ANY OF THE TERMINALS YET.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT-MON...PRESSURE GRADIENT IS A LITTLE TIGHTER IN SOUTHERN
SECTIONS BUT THE MODELS INDICATE AN OVERALL DECREASE IN WINDS
OVERNIGHT.  BASED ON THE 9 PM ANALYSIS...PLAN TO HOLD ONTO AN
EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENT IN THE SOUTH AND PROBABLY INTO THE
CENTRAL WATERS.  SOUTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS INDICATED ON MON
FOR MOST OF THE WATERS.  NOT GUSTY LIKE TODAY...BUT PROBABLY NOT THE
GREATEST CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT EITHER.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

FORECASTS...LASCODY
IMPACT WEATHER...BOWEN





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