Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 141456
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1055 AM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Morning Cape sounding showed a noticeably drier airmass especially
in the mid and upper levels and this is depicted by limited cu
development so far on hi res vis sat imagery. Sfc analysis shows
ridge axis across south FL with a westerly flow across EC FL. This
will both delay the east coast sea breeze and allow the west coast
breeze to dominate. Did not make significant changes to PoPs,
showing highest rain chances across north Lake/Volusia counties (50
percent). Rain chances decrease to the south and 30 percent may be
generous south of the Cape. Max temps low 90s along the immediate
coast and mid 90s elsewhere look good.

Today-tonight (previous)...Axis of Atlantic surface ridge will
remain a little south of Lake Okeechobee over the next H24 as weak
mid level high persists aloft. Pattern remains WCSB-dominant as that
boundary forms earlier and progresses faster/farther inland while
the ECSB forms later and will be slow to push inland against the
prevailing synoptic wind flow. Highest mean PWAT will reside over
the northern CWA, where highest POPs (40-50) will reside.
Otherwise...plan to run with 30 percent for the remainder of the CWA
for this afternoon, with a lingering slight chance for early evening
storms over the central and south (mainly near the coast). Main
storm threats today will be lightning and locally heavy rain,
although the dearth of steering flow will be counteracted to some
degree by progressive W-E motion of WCSB and associated storm
outflow boundaries. Max temps should approach 95F most areas, with
L90s confined to the immediate coast.


&&

.AVIATION...Mainly VFR. Light westerly flow will turn onshore in a
sea breeze MLB/VRB/FPR/SUA 17Z-19Z, possibly later at DAB. Storm
coverage will be lower today but still focused across northern
terminals this afternoon/early evening. VCTS currently in TAFs from
ISM northward, may need to add a TEMPO for DAB/LEE where rain
chances are higher.

&&

.MARINE...
Light westerly flow 5-10 knots will turn onshore in a 10kt sea
breeze near the coast this afternoon. Favorable boating conditions
with seas around 2 feet. Best chance for offshore moving storms will
be north of the Cape this afternoon. TS Gert is 515 miles ENE of the
Cape late this morning and though it appears to be
strengthening, it continues to lift north away from the area.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  93  76  94  75 /  50  10  40  30
MCO  94  77  95  76 /  30  10  40  10
MLB  94  76  93  76 /  30  20  40  20
VRB  94  75  93  74 /  30  20  40  20
LEE  93  77  93  77 /  50  10  40  20
SFB  94  77  95  77 /  40  10  40  20
ORL  94  78  95  78 /  30  10  40  20
FPR  94  74  93  74 /  30  20  40  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

Kelly/Pendergrast



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