Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KMLB 201335
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
930 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT...TAILEND OF A FRONT JUST SKIRTING ST JOHN AND FLAGLER
COUNTIES AND APPROACHING NORTHEAST VOLUSIA COUNTY. DIURNAL CUMULUS
FIELD SHOULD START FORMING WITHIN THE HOUR WITH THE INCREASING
TEMPERATURES AND THE INCREASING MOISTURE PER THE MORNING CAPE
CANAVERAL SOUNDING. THE VERTICAL WIND PROFILER(S) AT KSC WERE
DETECTING SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH ABOUT 4000
FEET THEN A QUICK SHIFT TO THE NORTH THEN NORTHEAST THROUGH ABOUT
10000 FEET. THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST TO WEST WIND COULD DELAY THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE BY AN HOUR OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT NORTH
TO SOUTH WINDS ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AN INDICATOR OF A SLOW SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST STORM MOTION THIS AFTERNOON. COOLER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...-10C AT CAPE CANAVERAL AND -8C AT JACKSONVILLE...A GOOD
INDICATOR FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL IN ANY OF THE STRONGER
STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN SUGGESTING
SEA BREEZES FORMING EARLY AFTERNOON AND MOVING SLOWLY INLAND AS IT
PUSHES AGAINST THE PREVAILING LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDFLOW.
THE HRRR ALSO IS SUGGESTING THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR STORMS ALONG A
LINE FROM FROM AROUND DAYTONA BEACH TO OKEECHOBEE COUNTY WITH A SLOW
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH MOTION ALONG THE SEA BREEZE.

THE MORNING ZONES UPDATE WILL TAKE A LOOK AT AMENDING WIND FIELDS AND
THE TIMING OF THE AFTERNOON STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS...PREVAILING VFR THROUGH 18Z WITH LCL MVFR CIGS
BKN025-030 DURING ONSET OF DIURNAL CU FIELD ~14Z-16Z. AFT
18Z...ISOLD SHRA/TS INCREASING IN COVERAGE 22Z-02Z. G30KT/1SM +TSRA
IN LOCALES WHERE CELL CORES MOVE OVHD...TYPICAL OF SUMMER CONVECTION.

&&

.MARINE...PREVIOUS...LIGHT S-SWRLY FLOW WILL GIVE WAY TO ONSHORE
ESE/SERLY SEA BREEZE AROUND 10KT NEAR THE COAST. SEAS 2-3FT...LCLY
HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS IN OFFSHORE MOVG TS MAINLY NORTH OF CAPE
CANAVERAL AND THE LATE AFTERNOON ON THE INLAND LAKES

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WIMMER
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...LASCODY


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.