Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 160822
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
322 AM EST Thu Feb 16 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Currently...Reinforcing cold front approaching north central Florida
will continue southward over the area early this morning. Lower
cloud cover has quickly built in ahead of this boundary, with cloudy
to mostly cloudy skies expected to persist over much of the area
through daybreak.

Today-Tonight...Drier and cooler air will continue to work into the
area today behind reinforcing front as it shifts south of Lake
Okeechobee by mid day. Lower level clouds will decrease from north
to south behind this front, with skies clearing into the afternoon.
Winds will generally be out of the northwest up to 10 to 15 mph as
high pressure builds slowly eastward across the Gulf. However local
WRF and HRRR guidance indicate a weak sea breeze may form later in
the day, mainly north of Melbourne with winds switching to the N/NE.
High temps will range from upper 60s along the coast from the Cape
northward, and low to mid 70s farther south and inland.

High pressure will build across the region late tonight with light
winds, clear skies and lingering dry airmass producing ideal
radiational cooling conditions. Temperatures are expected to quickly
drop past sunset, eventually falling into the 40s for much of the
forecast area. However, it may remain slightly warmer in the low 50s
along the Martin county coast.

Expect a chilly morning Friday with lows in the L-M40s initially
under clear skies as high pressure squarely over the region moves
east of the area during the day. Increasing high clouds will
begin to move over head by the evening.

Weekend...Progressive pattern over the CONUS as an upper low over
the Ark/La/Tex area early Sat will eject across the Lower MS
valley and then OH valley Sat night. A mid level disturbance
(~100 kt jet) ascd with the parent low will quickly cross the
central and eastern Gulf during Sat bringing increasingly
unsettled conditions along with a chance of showers and a few
embedded storms by afternoon and into the evening. The fast moving
system along with mentionable rain chcs will clear the area by
midday Sunday, leaving clearing and slightly cooler conditions to
start next week.

Extended...Mon-Wed is advertised to be under the influence of
transitory high pressure with mostly clear skies. A highly
amplified pattern develops as another southern stream system
featuring a fully cutoff upr low moving at an unusually low
latitude across the Gulf is advertised by GFS/ECMWF at midweek.
System is shown at varying stages of development reaching
the peninsula and increasing the likelihood of showers and storms
by late Wed and into Thu. Given very cold temperatures aloft
along with a sheared wind field this feature will have the
potential to produce strong to possibly severe storms around the
middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR. Cigs of lower clouds across the region have lifted to just
above 3kft. Cloud cover will continue to diminish from north to
south across the area as frontal boundary shifts southward, with
sunny skies expected across the area into the afternoon. NW winds
up to 10-15 knots, may become N/NE along the coast, mainly north
of KMLB into mid to late afternoon as a weak sea breeze
potentially develops.

&&

.MARINE...
Today-Tonight...High pressure building eastward across the Gulf will
gradually decrease NW winds over the waters, veering to the north
into tonight. However, hazardous boating conditions will continue
offshore through mid morning with winds up to 15-20 knots and seas 7
feet. Small craft exercise caution headlines will then likely be
needed offshore through the afternoon for lingering seas up to 6
feet. Otherwise wind speeds will decrease to 10-15 knots this
afternoon, and 5-10 knots into tonight.

Fri...High pressure initially overhead will keep a subsiding
trend to winds and seas. Seas 4 ft or less with winds less than 10
kts.

Weekend...Sly winds will freshen during Sat as high pressure
departs to the east and the upstream Gulf system approaches. It
is likely that headlines for caution or advisory conds will be
required over a portion of the waters by Sat night and into Sun.
Winds and seas will begin to diminish during Sunday and early next
week as high pressure begins to temporarily re-establish over the
region.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Today...NW surface and transport winds will continue to decrease
with speeds around 10-15 mph. A drier airmass building in behind
frontal boundary will produce min RH values as low as the mid 20s
to low 30s over much of the interior from Osceola county
northward.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  68  42  72  52 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  71  46  75  54 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  72  46  73  57 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  74  47  76  57 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  70  44  76  53 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  70  44  74  54 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  70  48  75  57 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  74  46  75  56 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST early this morning for
     Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-
     Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Volusia-Brevard
     County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for Flagler
     Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Sebastian
     Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line
     to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Weitlich
LONG TERM....Pendergrast



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