Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 221330

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
930 AM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016


Today-Tonight...Morning soundings show low/mid level wind flow was
turning more to the northwest as a frontal trough moved into the
region. This was advecting a drier and more stable air mass into the
area. The low levels were very moist early in the morning, but
mixing down of drier air will occur through the day and a capping
inversion will inhibit convection. The HRRR model only shows a few
pinhead showers. Hence, planning to remove small storm chances in
the far south.

The west/northwest low level flow will be near breezy at times this
afternoon, which will prohibit the east coast sea breeze from
forming. This will allow max temps at the coast to reach 90 to the
lower 90s.  So despite the depiction of a "cold" front dropping into
the area, this is really just a dew point boundary and the only high
temp modification will be along the coast tomorrow when an onshore
wind flow develops.

The drier air advecting in will allow min temps tonight to drop into
the mid 60s over most of the area.


A small band of stratus has been advecting south ahead of
approaching frontal trough.  Some MVFR will linger a short while
longer then mixing down of drier air will occur and VFR will prevail
this afternoon and overnight.


Today-Tonight...West/northwest winds will occasionally be near 15
knots into evening, especially Sebastian Inlet north, as the gradient
tightens slightly in response to low pressure center forming along
the Carolina coast. This will kick up seas offshore to 3-4 feet.
Returning to port from the open Atlantic will be a bit choppy for
small craft due to short period wind waves.


.MLB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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