Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
FXUS62 KMLB 230854
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
454 AM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016
Today/Tonight...High pressure centered across the lower
Mississippi Valley will extend eastward across the Southeast
U.S. today. This will gradually veer winds from the north to
northeast into this afternoon, with speeds increasing up to 10-15
mph. Veering low level flow will begin to transport stratocu
developing over the waters toward the coast and onshore. Best
chance for an increase in cloud cover, ranging from scattered to
broken coverage will exist along coastal sections from Cape
southward. Temperatures will continue to be below normal with
highs in the mid-upper 70s today and overnight lows again dropping
into the 50s over much of the region. However along the coast
south of the Cape a weak onshore flow and greater cloud cover may
keep temps in the low to mid 60s.
Mon-Sat...The high pressure ridge just north of the area will
press southward as a frontal boundary pushes off the mid atlc
coast. Strong high pressure over the Great Lakes will build south
and east and produce an increase in E/NE flow mid to late week.
This will modify the dry airmass and produce isolated to scattered
Atlantic showers pushing onshore the coast from time to time from
late Tue onward. Deeper moisture is forecast to remain south of
Florida so rain chances should not exceed 30 percent and have kept
thunder out of the forecast. The stronger and more persistent
onshore flow will produce seasonable max temperatures in the lower
80s and noticeably warmer low temps in the mid to upper 60s,
except lower 70s along the coast.
.AVIATION...VFR conds expected. Marine stratocu should begin to
push onshore from Cape southward today and into tonight which may
generate broken cloud cover at times, but any cigs will remain
Today/Tonight...High pressure extending eastward across the
Southeast U.S. will veer winds over the waters from the north to
northeast, with wind speeds around 10-15 knots. Wave heights will
be 3-4 feet, except 5 feet in the Gulf Stream where north wind
component produces choppy conditions.
Mon-Thu...Pressure gradient will relax a bit Monday across the
north and central waters supporting 10 knots of NE wind, 10-15
knots across the southern waters. Seas 2-3 ft, except up to 4 feet
southern waters. Then reinforcing high pressure is forecast to
build south over the waters late Tue and beyond and produce a
northeast to east wind surge of 20 knots which should build seas
up to 9 feet offshore and produce hazardous boating conditions
into late week.
.HYDROLOGY...The St. Johns River at Astor (2.67ft) has fallen
below Flood stage (2.8ft) but is forecast to remain in Action
stage through mid week.
At Geneva/above Lake Harney, the St. Johns River (6.85ft) will
remain nearly steady above Action Stage (6.50ft) this week.
Minimum RH values will drop below 40 percent northwest of I-4 both
this afternoon and Monday afternoon. An increasing onshore flow
will gradually moisten the low levels and keep RH values above 40
percent from Tuesday onward. Expect rain-free conditions through
Tuesday with low shower chances returning to the area mid to late
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 76 56 80 58 / 0 0 0 0
MCO 78 57 81 60 / 0 0 0 0
MLB 78 62 80 64 / 0 0 0 0
VRB 78 60 80 63 / 0 0 0 10
LEE 78 55 81 58 / 0 0 0 0
SFB 78 56 81 60 / 0 0 0 0
ORL 78 58 81 60 / 0 0 0 0
FPR 78 60 80 63 / 0 10 10 10