Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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587
FXUS62 KMLB 211303
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
900 AM EDT Sat Oct 21 2017

.DISCUSSION...

High pressure over the mid-Atlantic will produce another breezy day
with easterly (onshore) flow. Morning Cape sounding shows continued
very dry air in the mid levels (700-300mb) with moisture confined to
upper and lower levels of the troposphere. Hi res VIS sat imagery
shows the (high) cirrus pushing eastward and the (much) lower
stratocumulus pushing westward. Sensible weather today looks quite
similar to yesterday with breezy E winds and occasional clouds with
a passing sprinkle/light shower especially along the coast. A little
higher moisture to the south should support a little higher coverage
of showers this aftn over the Treasure coast. Agree with SPC`s
update of DAY1 convective potential to remove thunder from EC FL.

Current forecast in good shape and no significant updates needed.

&&

.AVIATION...
Mainly VFR through the next 24 hours in continued breezy onshore
(east) flow. Just enough moisture exists in the low-levels for
isolated light rain showers over the Atlantic to push toward the
coast. And just enough of a subsidence inversion to cause stratocu
to pancake and produce ocnl VFR CIGs. Hard pressed to include even
VCSH this morning but will likely need it for FPR/SUA later in the
day and it`s already advertised along the coast tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
Data from NOAA and Scripps buoys this morning describe poor to
hazardous boating conditions on the Atlantic waters with East winds
15 to 20 knots causing steep waves 6 to 7 feet. Choppy conditions
expected on the intracoastal waters. Small Craft Advisory continues
for most of the adjacent Atlantic except nearshore Volusia where
choppy 5 to 6 foot seas require a Caution headline.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The middle and upper Saint Johns River basin remains in Major Flood
Stage above Lake Harney near Geneva, in Moderate Flood Stage near
Cocoa, Deland, and at Astor. A brief respite in significant rainfall
accumulation will allow for a steady state or very slow decline in
the river levels through this weekend.

Some additional rainfall is forecast for Monday and Tuesday, which
could cause river levels to temporarily level off. Dry weather is
forecast from Wednesday through late week, which should allow for
the slow recession in water levels to continue, however, the river
will remain above flood stage for several more weeks.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  84  73  86  73 /  20  30  50  30
MCO  87  71  89  72 /  10  10  50  20
MLB  86  78  87  76 /  20  30  50  30
VRB  86  77  87  75 /  20  30  50  30
LEE  88  70  88  72 /   0  10  50  20
SFB  86  71  87  73 /  10  20  50  20
ORL  87  71  87  73 /  10  10  50  20
FPR  85  77  86  75 /  20  30  40  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for
     Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Sunday for Flagler Beach to
     Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Sebastian Inlet to
     Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-
     60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20
     nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.

&&

$$

Kelly/Johnson



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