Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY

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000
FXUS65 KRIW 161711
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1110 AM MDT THU OCT 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA WITH COLD ADVECTION ACROSS
THE AREA. THERE ARE STILL SOME GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING WHICH IS CLOSER TO AN 100+
KNOT JET STREAK MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA. THESE WINDS SHOULD
DIE OFF TOWARD MORNING AS THE JET STREAK MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST AND
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES BEHIND THE FRONT. A WEAK RIDGE WILL
THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND BRING MAINLY DRY WEATHER. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TRAILING THIS RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...IT HAS LITTLE MOISTURE WITH IT SO IT WILL ONLY
PRODUCE SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH THE PASSAGE. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW YESTERDAY...BUT THIS
ACTUALLY FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL. RIDGING THEN BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
FOR FRIDAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE WILL THE MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FOR SATURDAY. THE NAM SHOWS
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS BUT THE OTHER
MODELS ARE DRY SO WE KEPT THINGS DRY FOR NOW. WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
INCREASING A BIT...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FOR THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED BOTH
DAYS.

A PACIFIC TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY WITH INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SOME CONVECTION PUSHING INTO THE WEST. EAST
OF THE DIVIDE...DOWNSLOPING SHOULD KEEP IT DRY AND VERY WARM FOR
LATE OCTOBER.

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THIS TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
PACIFIC COLD FRONT IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. HAVE TRENDED WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE AREA...DUE TO CONSISTENCY IN
REGARDS TO TIMING FROM LAST NIGHT TO TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL BE
VALLEY RAIN/MOUNTAIN SNOW...BUT SYSTEM STILL DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
THAT IMPRESSIVE SO PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
LINGERING PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE A MAINLY
DRY DAY IS EXPECTED THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...IN WAKE OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY. A WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
TODAY/TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...LIGHT WIND AT 11KTS OR LESS WILL BE
COMMON FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES...HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND LESS WIND
TODAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD
FRONT. MAINLY TRANQUIL WEATHER WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. A BUILDING RIDGE WILL BRING WARMER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...WM
AVIATION...JB
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS









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