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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 210632
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
232 AM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Cool and dry this weekend, then slowly warming through Tuesday
ahead of another cold front that brings wet weather back to the
area Tuesday night. Frost is possible Sunday and Monday mornings.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 1015 PM Saturday...

Forecast on track, with temperatures falling beneath a mostly
thin veil of cirrus overspreading the area. Patchy stratocumulus
was also beginning to show up in northern WV.

As of 750 PM Saturday...

Temperatures, Frost Advisory and special weather statement look
good as placed, as increasing clouds should inhibit frost
formation late south.

As of 300 PM Saturday...

Key Messages:
* High pressure provides cool and dry weather.
* Frost late tonight into early Sunday morning for some locations.

Building high pressure will continue to bring dry weather
through tonight and Sunday across the region. This has
translated into a mainly clear afternoon across the region,
with just a bit of fair weather Cu across the far north. High
temperatures will top out in the low to mid 60s across the
lowlands. A rather tight pressure gradient and deep mixed layer
has resulted in gusty WNW winds across the area this afternoon,
with gusts of 20-35 MPH at times, along with low RH values in
the mid 20s to mid 30s. Given recent rainfall and after
collaborating with neighbors, the need for an SPS in terms of
fire danger was opted against.

Flow will relax late this evening into tonight, allowing for a
chilly night ahead. While there will be some SCT/BKN cirrus
moving in late tonight, low dew points across the area courtesy
of afternoon mixing and light SFC-H850 flow will result in
favorable radiational cooling, with low temperatures progged in
the 30s for the lowlands, with upper 20s for portions of the
mountains. Given such, did issue a Frost Advisory from 2-8 AM
Sunday morning across the northern lowlands where confidence is
highest in frost potential, with an SPS for zones a bit further
south where patchy frost is possible in the typical valley cold
spots. There could be a bit of steam fog across some of the
deeper river valleys overnight.

Sunday will feature BKN-OVC mid/upper level clouds across much
of the area, with some clearing later in the day working in from
the northwest. CAA results in high temperatures in the mid 50s
for the lowlands, with 40s to low 50s for the mountains.
Afternoon RH will once again be on the low side (upper 20s to
low 30s), but amid lighter flow than today, with breezes of
10-20 MPH possible at times.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 230 AM Sunday...

Quiet conditions continue into the early work week as high pressure
slides east across the region Monday into Monday night

High pressure shifts off to the east Monday night putting the region
back into southwesterly flow Tuesday ahead of an approaching
northern stream low slated to arrive in the Lower Great Lakes
Tuesday night. This should yield a brief return to mild conditions
with daytime highs across the lower elevations in the upper 60s to
lower 70s. The atmosphere will be quite dry Monday into Tuesday with
dew point values in the lower to mid 30s before moisture begins to
work in on increasing southwesterly flow Tuesday night. Winds will
be relatively light on Monday, but will increase on Tuesday with
afternoon gusts 20-25 mph with RH values in the mid 20s. 10 hour
dead fuels have already dried significantly from recent rainfall,
although with the green up in full swing being able to get fire into
these thicker fuels may take some doing. Will need to check in with
land management agencies early in the week to get their opinion
on fuels for some possible fire danger statements for Tuesday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 230 AM Sunday...

As alluded to in the short term discussion, a modest uptick in
precipitable water to around 3/4 of an inch is expected late
Tuesday. A cold front associated with the aforementioned low will
drag across the region Tuesday night into Wednesday morning yielding
around a third of an inch of rainfall averaged across the basin.
Instability looks rather meager, and coupled with overnight timing
will continue to cap any chances for convection at slight.

Cooler northwesterly flow over Lake Erie in the wake of cold frontal
passage Wednesday likely yields at least some lake enhanced moisture
plume feeding into the region during the day with fairly steep low
level lapse rates through 5000 ft. Could see some low topped showers
with this activity at least through Wednesday afternoon.

The balance of the work week appears quiet with the next chance for
precipitation looming for next weekend amid another strong warm
up.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 125 AM Sunday...

Widespread VFR conditions under light northwest flow will prevail
through the period. Upper level cirrus associated a passing
disturbance across the south, will persist into the morning
hours. Breezes during the peak afternoon mixing hours could
bring wind gusts up to 19 knots, rapidly subsiding by 00Z
Monday.

Skies should clear this afternoon into tonight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              SUN 04/21/24
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
Widespread IFR conditions are not expected at this time.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for WVZ007>011-
     016>020-027>032-039-040.
OH...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>086.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JP
NEAR TERM...TRM/GW
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...ARJ