Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 260447
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1147 PM CDT Thu May 25 2017

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions expected through the night...with areas of MVFR
cigs developing by Friday morning. MVFR conditions may persist
most of the day for northwest Arkansas.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 932 PM CDT Thu May 25 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Current forecast looks good going into the overnight period.
Surface boundary to drift into northeast Oklahoma tomorrow
morning...with heat and humidity to increase across the entire
area on Friday. Despite the approaching boundary...storm chances
tomorrow look slim as the area will be capped.

Better chances will come Saturday...with initiation expected in
the mid to late afternoon hours across central and/or eastern
Oklahoma. A strong cap will be in place again for much of the day
as the environment becomes extremely unstable. Areal coverage of
storms remains a bit uncertain at this time, however conditional
severe chances are expected to be quite high. The timing,
instability, wind shear, and upper support that will be in place
by late in the day Saturday will set the stage for all modes of
severe weather, including the potential for significant severe.
Please continue to monitor the latest updates and forecasts.

No first period update planned at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   66  90  69  90 /  10  10  20  40
FSM   65  90  72  89 /   0  10  20  20
MLC   70  91  73  89 /   0  10  10  20
BVO   63  88  65  88 /  10  10  20  30
FYV   63  83  67  84 /   0  10  30  30
BYV   64  82  68  84 /   0  10  40  40
MKO   65  88  71  87 /   0  10  10  30
MIO   64  85  66  85 /  10  10  20  50
F10   68  90  70  90 /   0  10  10  30
HHW   69  90  74  88 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...18


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