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000
FXUS63 KPAH 092357
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
555 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2010

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAFS. PUBLIC DISCUSSION REMAINS
THE SAME FROM PREVIOUS ISSUANCE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PVA SNOW SHOWERS WILL WRAP BACK INTO THE FA ON THE UNDER/BACK SIDE
OF THE UPPER LOW NOW MOVING ACROSS NRN MO. IT WILL ALSO BRING ITS
GUSTY WINDS AND ARCTIC PLUNGE OF AIR...WHICH MODELS ARE HAVING A
DIFFICULT TIME OF GRASPING THE TDS. RESULTANT OVERNIGHT APPARENT
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH WIND CHILLS TOMORROW IN
THE TEENS. THE LOW LIFTS OUT TOWARD THE END OF THE DAY TOMORROW
AND AS THE SURFACE HIGH TO OUR WEST STARTS TO BUILD IN...WINDS
BEGIN TO RELAX. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR THE COLDEST/BEST
RADIATIONAL NIGHT FOR TEMPS WED NIGHT...GENERALLY 10-15 THOUGH
SINGLE DIGITS ARE PERCHED JUST TO OUR NW AND ARE NOT OUT OF THE
REALM OF POSSIBILITY OF SINKING DOWN INTO OUR NRN 1/2.

THE WEEKEND CONTAINS SMALLISH SNOW CHANCES FRI-FRI NIGHT AND AGAIN
SAT NIGHT-SUN. THESE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH ALBERTA CLIPPERS AND
AS SUCH SHOULD NOT OFFER ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS...THOUGH
LIGHT DUSTINGS MIGHT OCCUR...THE MORE VIGOROUS WAVE/BETTER SUCH
CHANCE SEEMING TO BE THE 2ND OF THE 2/IE THE SUNDAY SYSTEM.

THE COLD WEATHER CONTINUES IN THE FORECAST INTO NEXT WEEK. EVEN
LOOKING OUT BEYOND DAY 7 THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH HOPE
RIGHT NOW FOR ANY WARMING...GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOWING BROAD TROFFING
TO BE THE GENERAL CNTRL U.S. UPPER PATTERN THRU ALL OF THE NEXT
WORK WEEK.

NAM SEEMS TO MAYBE CAPTURE THE COLDER SURFACE TEMPS/TDS BETTER AND
AS A RESULT WAS THE WAY WE LEANED FOR NEAR TERM TEMPS/TDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
AREA OF MVFR CIGS MAINLY 2-3KFT TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM NRN
MISSOURI WILL REACH THE OHIO RIVER 04Z-06Z TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT AREAS NEAR KEVV AND ESPECIALLY KOWB IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT WILL MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN AFTER 2-3Z.
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATER TONIGHT BUT CHC FOR
ANYTHING REDUCING VISIBILITY IS LOW SO DID NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF CLEARING ON WEDNESDAY...BUT EXPECT MVFR
CIGS IN KOWB/KEVV UNTIL AT LEAST WED NT WHILE AREAS WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI SHOULD CLEAR AT LEAST BY MID AFTERNOON. STRONG WINDS
WILL BE PERSISTENT BUT WILL DROP OFF DRAMATICALLY BY WED NT.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$