Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 301600
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1100 AM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1100 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

Just issued a freeze watch for this weekend for the entire WFO PAH
forecast area. This mainly an technical product issuance, since
freeze warnings will likely be issued late tonight or Friday. From
a priority aspect, the focus will be on freezing temperatures, but
minor frost development will occur over Southern Illinois late Friday
night and widespread frost development Saturday Night and Sunday morning.

The wind gradient will be much stronger through the period from
Friday night into Saturday morning, so most of the freezing
temperature impact will be purely associated with cold air
advection and may have lesser impact in places with no wind
protection. The impact will be greatest Saturday night and Sunday
with essentially no wind and sky cover issues to inhibit nocturnal
radiational loss.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 305 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

Medium to high forecast confidence in the short term.

Precipitation chances make their way into the northwest third of our
CWA this afternoon as a sharp short wave diving southeast out of the
northern plains pushes a surface low and trailing cold front toward
our region. With moisture still expected to be somewhat limited with
this feature, precipitation chances should remain rather small.

Tonight with the passage of said low and front, the deeper moisture
and precipitation chances will shift to the northeast half of our
CWA which will generally be along and north of the track of the low.
Small precipitation chances may linger into Friday over the far
eastern sections of our CWA on the back side of the system in the
wrap around moisture.

Friday night in the wake of the front, high pressure and some of the
the coldest air (upper 20s to lower 30s) of the season will begin to
overspread the region. The main limitation for frost late Friday
night will be gradient wind flow which will inhibit widespread
frost development. The best frost potential Saturday morning will be
patchy in protected areas. Even though frost formation is expected
to be limited, temperatures dipping to at or below freezing by early
Saturday morning should bring an end to the growing season.

Temperatures should be even colder late Saturday night as the high
is forecast to be centered over the region. With winds expected to
be calm area wide late Saturday night, frost formation should be
widespread.

Even with temperatures expected to bottom out at or below freezing
Friday night and especially Saturday night, for a couple of reasons
will refrain from issuing any frost/freeze headlines at this time
and will punt to the day shift. The first reason is that with the
winds staying up Friday night, there maybe enough shallow mixing to
bump temperatures up a degree or two, especially over the southern
half of our CWA. Secondly, Friday night is the 4th period of the
forecast which pushes the time limits of the definition of a watch
product. Decided to continue with a strongly worded Special Weather
Statement to address the upcoming cold snap.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

Sunday and Monday should remain dry with an upper level ridge making
its way across the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys.
Surface high pressure east of the PAH forecast area will give us
southerly winds beginning on Sunday and lead to a gradual warm up.
Temperatures will remain well below normal Sunday and Sunday night,
warming up to near seasonal readings for Monday and Monday night.

Models show a low pressure system sliding across southern Canada,
bringing a cold front into the region Monday night into Tuesday.
GFS is the fastest model spreading precip into and across the fa
late Monday night into Tuesday night.  The latest ECMWF is trending
slower than its previous run, and now focuses precip more on Tuesday
night into early Wednesday.  Leaned more toward the more consistent
timing of the GFS.  Continued with chance and slight chance pops for
our northwest half of counties Monday night, then chance and likely
pops Tuesday into Tuesday night.  Precip chances should taper off
from northwest to southeast on Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 628 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

Will introduce a mid cloud deck for today, with clouds lowering
toward 4-5k/ft this evening and tonight, and a chance of showers at
KEVV and KOWB. Winds will be light through the period.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FREEZE WATCH from late Friday night through Sunday morning FOR
     ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...FREEZE WATCH from late Friday night through Sunday morning FOR
     MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114.

IN...FREEZE WATCH from late Friday night through Sunday morning FOR
     INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...FREEZE WATCH from late Friday night through Sunday morning FOR
     KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Smith






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