RSS FeedsIssued by NWS Paducah, KY
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000 FXUS63 KPAH 210608 AFDPAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 1200 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009 .UPDATE... REVISED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAFS...NO CHANGE TO PUBLIC DISCUSSION. && .DISCUSSION... THIN CIRRUS CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CIRRUS IS ABOUT THE ONLY SKY COVER WE EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS AMPLE SUNSHINE HELPS TO BOOST TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 60S ON SATURDAY. BROAD TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL STATES WILL SPLIT INTO TWO SEGMENTS ON SATURDAY...WITH ONE PASSING TO OUR NORTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE OTHER TO OUR SOUTH NEAR THE GULF COAST. THE SOUTHERN WAVE WILL BRING MOISTURE NORTH TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WHILE THE PRIMARY IMPACT WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS... SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN KENTUCKY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE...AND INDICATES MORE SUNSHINE AND LESS OF A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS...BUT THIS IS CONTRARY TO THE NAM AND ECMWF. GIVEN THE TRANSITIONAL NATURE OF THE FLOW PATTERN AT THIS TIME...CONFIDENCE IN THE DRIER GFS IS NOT ALL THAT GREAT RIGHT NOW...SO WILL LEAN TOWARDS A NAM/ECMWF BLEND. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. CONSISTENCY AMONG THE GFS AND ECMWF DETERMINISTIC RUNS HAS NOT BEEN OVERWHELMING...WITH A SMORGASBORD OF EVOLUTIONS POSSIBLE. WILL RELY HEAVILY ON THE ENSEMBLES...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN AT THIS POINT APPEARING TO BE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. IT DOES APPEAR THAT DRIER AND MUCH COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE BY THANKSGIVING DAY AND LAST INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. && .AVIATION... CIRRUS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD AREAS FROM THE OHIO RIVER SE...TENDING TO PUSH FURTHER SE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SOME SIGNS OF DEVELOPING FOG WITH PATCHY BR VIS DOWN TO 6-8SM. PARTIAL CLEARING ESPECIALLY AROUND KCGI/KEVV SHOULD ALLOW SOME SPOTS TO DROP DOWN INTO IFR RANGE AT TIMES BETWEEN 09Z AND 14Z THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS DEEPER MOISTURE STAYS WELL TO OUR SOUTH. WINDS WILL TEND VERY LIGHT JUST NORTH OF DUE EASTERLY. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...NONE. MO...NONE. IL...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$
