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000
FXUS63 KPAH 221939
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
239 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

H5 LOW OVER NRN IOWA WILL OPEN UP AND MOVE EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. WILL LINGER A SMALL CHANCE OF WEAK
CONVECTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE AREA.
WILL CARRY SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS THURSDAY AS THE MEAN TROF AXIS
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...EARLY IN THE DAY. DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS A DECENT AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS THE FOUR STATE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

MODELS STILL DIFFER FOR THE LATE WEEKEND/EARLY WORK WEEK WEATHER
SYSTEM. ECMWF AND GFS BOTH SHOW LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTHEAST
COAST AT 00Z SUNDAY...WITH A FRONT EXTENDING WEST TO LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE PLAINS STATES. GFS HAS THE PLAINS LOW FARTHER NORTH THAN
THE GFS...THUS KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES FARTHER NORTH AND OUT OF THE
THE PAH FORECAST AREA THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED. ECMWF SHOWS ON
AND OFF CHANCES OF PRECIP THROUGH THE SAME TIME PERIOD. BOTH
MODELS ARE NOW REMAINING FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS.
GEM SEEMS TO BE A GOOD BLEND OF THE TWO...AND HAS BEEN TRENDING A
BIT MORE TOWARD THE FARTHER SOUTH ECMWF. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GEM
COMPROMISE...WHICH LEADS TO INCLUDING SOME SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE
POPS FOR OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST COUNTIES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND
THEN AGAIN ON TUESDAY. QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT BE TOO SIGNIFICANT
DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF ANY CONVECTION. ECMWF TRIES TO
CONTINUE TO HANG ON TO THE PRECIP EVEN INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT BOTH
GFS AND ECMWF BUILD AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST U.S...SO WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN SEASONAL
AVERAGES SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN MODERATING TO NEAR
SEASONAL ON SUNDAY. A RETURN TO MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW SATURDAY AND
ESPECIALLY INTO SUNDAY WILL LEAD TOA GRADUAL WARM UP AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1156 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

CLOUDS ROTATING AROUND H5 LOW OVER NRN IA LATE THIS MORNING. WILL
HAVE SCT-BKN CU/STRATO-CU THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH ISOLD/SCT
-SHRA AND PERHAPS TS. WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
SW BREEZE WITH A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
LEVEL OFF TONIGHT AND VEER SLIGHTLY WEST.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CN
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...CN