Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 240542
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1240 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

.UPDATE...
Updated Aviation discussion for 06Z TAF Issuance

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 215 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Fairly high confidence in the short term. An upper level trof should
pass by just north of the forecast area tonight. Thinking now is
that all measurable precip will stay to our north and we will likely
just get mid and high cloud cover from the system. The chilly sfc
high that has been over the region for the past couple of days will
finally drift farther east of the area by Friday/Friday night,
allowing a significant warming trend to get underway. Could be
another round of high clouds later Friday night into Sat, but all in
all, should be a nice start to the weekend as temps climb well into
the 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Winds will shift to the south Sunday, which will help keep
temperatures well above normal Sunday through Tuesday.  Models,
this latest run at least, are showing some agreement with the
Tuesday into Wednesday cold frontal passage.  Models show the cold
front just west of the PAH forecast area by 12z Tuesday, so showers
will begin moving into western portions of the fa late Monday night
or early Tuesday.  Through the day Tuesday into Tuesday evening,
models show widespread, but not too significant, QPF across the
region.  Went with likely pops west/northwest to low to slight
chance pops southeast for showers and possibly a few thunderstorms
on Tuesday.  Went with likely pops southeast to chance pops
west/northwest Tuesday night for showers. Models differ a little on
when to push the precip on through our area, but overall precip
should be tapering off from northwest to southeast late Tuesday
night, and just kept some low chance to slight chance pops for our
southeast half of counties on Wednesday.  Temperatures will drop off
quite a bit behind the front Tuesday night through Thursday, with
near normal readings Wednesday into Wednesday night, and slightly
below normal readings by Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

Introduced mention of fog into the tafs for the remainder of tonight
into the early morning hours. Large areas of clearing have developed
in the mid level overcast...allowing some fog to form already at a
few sites. Lower clouds based around 4k feet will attempt to
overspread our region from the northwest toward sunrise. This
cloudiness will help mitigate fog potential if it makes it here.
Vsbys may be worse than forecast if these clouds do not arrive by
sunrise. Once fog burns off...vfr conditions are expected for the
remainder of the taf period.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

&&

$$

Aviation...MY







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