Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 250857

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
257 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 257 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2018

With showers now off to our southeast, we will be canceling the
Flood Watch with the issuance of the forecast package.

We will finally see some very much needed dry weather today into
the early part of the work week.  Models show high pressure
building over the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys today
into tonight. Sunshine will return today, and we should see mostly
clear to clear skies through Monday night. Temperatures today and
tonight will be near to a little above seasonal normals, with a
warming trend through Tuesday night. The high will move off to our
east on Tuesday, and south winds will give us readings 12 to 18
degrees above normal Tuesday into Tuesday night.

With the high moving off to our east, models show low pressure in
the Central Plains lifting a warm front toward our region Tuesday
night. This will result in increasing clouds Tuesday, and shower
chances spreading across the PAH forecast area Tuesday night.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 257 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2018

The medium range models seemed to have synced up better lately
overall, helping to increase confidence in the evolution and timing
of a midweek low pressure system developing in the center of the
country. The finer details are not as certain.

Wed, and especially Wed night, an overrunning/warm advection pattern
ahead of a vigorous mid level shortwave trof will be in place over
the PAH forecast area, resulting in possibly an interval of heavy
rainfall. The ECMWF still shows the evolution of the system a bit
differently than most other guidance, i.e., as two unphased southern
stream/northern stream shortwave trofs, as they approach from the
western CONUS, up to the last minute. It also didn`t tend to show
the low eventually becoming stacked over the upper Midwest like
other guidance. So, the exact timing of the individual QPF bulls-
eyes still may vary, but model consensus suggests that 2+ inches of
rain are possible Wed/Wed night, mainly closer to the TN state line.
Plenty of wind shear should be available in the vicinity of the
surface low, but instability will remain in question for severe
weather potential. At this time, even tstm activity may not be all
that common.

The proximity of the upper low on Thu will keep some shower activity
in the forecast for mainly the Evansville Tri-State region through
Thu evening. This pattern will be conducive to cooler temps/lower
dewpoints, but not drastically so, just back toward seasonable
averages. Starting Fri, dry weather can be expected through Day 7
(Sat) under ridging aloft and a surface ridge axis.


Issued at 1159 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

Cigs are forecast to dramatically improve overnight to VFR as a new
airmass sweeps into the region. The winds, if not there already,
will go to a westerly direction. In the first few hours of the TAF,
gusts to 25 knots or so will remain possible over the Evansville Tri-
State region. By daybreak, wind speeds are expected to settle down
considerably. They should go very light by Sunday evening.




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