Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 300734
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
234 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES OVER THE PAH
FORECAST AREA. PERSISTENT NWRLY FLOW ALOFT AND NRLY/NWRLY SFC
WINDS WILL RESULT IN A NOTICEABLE DROP IN DEWPOINTS FROM THE TEPID
70S TO THE LOWER 60S...AND A MODERATION OF TEMPS. HIGH TEMPS WILL
REMAIN STABLE...IN THE LOWER 90S SOUTH AND UPPER 80S NORTH THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. THERE WILL BE A
REINFORCING PUNCH OF DRIER AIR EARLY SAT...WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUDS...A SUBTLE WIND SHIFT...AND SOME POOLING
OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. NO MEASURABLE PCPN IS EXPECTED
WITH THIS FEATURE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THEN THE
OPS ECMWF DIVERGES TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CURRENT AND RECENT
RUNS OF THE GFS/GEM AND ECENS/GEFS/GEPS/JMA/NAEFS MEANS WANT TO
BUILD/KEEP A MORE PROMINENT RIDGE OVER THE WEST 1/2 OF THE U.S. WITH
STRONGER NW FLOW ESTABLISHED ACROSS OUR REGION DAYS 6-7. HOWEVER THE
ECMWF WANTS WANTS TO BRING ENERGY ACROSS THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE
RIDGE...AND NEVER ALLOW IT TO BUILD AS FAR NORTH. IT PROJECTS SOME
OF THAT ENERGY WILL HEAD ESE TOWARD THE REGION. THE RESULT IS LESS
OF AN INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TUE/WED...QUICKER RETURN
FLOW AND MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE WNW. THE GFS AND AN
EXTRAPOLATION OF THE GEM SUGGEST MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS AND MORE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCE TUE/WED. WPC SEEMS TO FAVOR THE
ECMWF/ECENS...WHICH IS NOT OUT OF THE ORDINARY.

WE WILL BLEND THE SOLUTIONS AND NOT COMPLETELY DISCOUNT THE ECMWF
PAST COUPLE OF RUNS. HOWEVER A FAIR AMOUNT OF WEIGHT WILL BE GIVEN
THE OTHER MODEL DEPICTIONS. SO IN TERMS OF POPS...HAVE IT DRY SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY WITH ONLY MARGINAL MOISTURE AND A LACK OF PROMINENT
FEATURES AT THE SFC AND ALOFT (ACKNOWLEDGING WE CAN NEVER RULE OUT
ISOLD CONVECTION / 10 PERCENT). THE MODELS BRING A WEAK FRONT INTO
THE AREA TUESDAY. AGAIN THE GFS/GEM HAVE A GREATER SOUTHWARD PUSH
THAN THE ECMWF. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS A RESULT. THE
REASON FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL
BE A FUNCTION OF MINOR WEIGHT GIVEN TO THE ECMWF OPS MODEL.

TEMPS WILL BE A BLEND OF MOS AS WELL SINCE WE ARE NOT COMPLETELY
DISCOUNTING THE ECMWF. ITS MOS VALUES ARE WARMER FROM TUESDAY ON VS.
THE COOLER MEX. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN TERMS OF WHICH MODEL WILL PAN
OUT AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. NRLY/NERLY
WINDS BELOW 10 KTS WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN DRIER AND SOMEWHAT
COOLER AIR.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DB
LONG TERM...CN
AVIATION...DB



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