Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 212324 AAA
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
624 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 624 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

Updated the aviation discussion for the 00Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 134 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

High pressure aloft will continue to strengthen and build its dome
overtop the MS valley thru the short term period of the forecast.
Diurnal destabilization resulting in late day PoPs look to be rang
around the High center, and thereby be just outside the bounds of
the PAH FA.

While an isolated shower or storm cannot be ruled out altogether,
H7 temps do rise to at/above 10C thru Saturday, effectively
offering a cap to convective chances. We`ll carry a silent 10 for
periphery pops that may have some upper energy associated that
would allow a temporary piercing of the cap.

The primary result will be the continuation of excessive heat and
humidity. Each afternoon will see the Heat Index average 100 to
105, with isolated locales potentially exceeding 105 at times. The
advisory continues thru the short term and has been extended beyond.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

The upper level ridge will be very slow to move east and break
down, thus the hot and humid weather will persist through the
latter part of the weekend into early next week. High temperatures
will continue to reach the middle to upper 90s through at least
Monday. The first significant sign of a reprieve continues to be
Wednesday into Thursday, when models take a surface low into the
Great Lakes region, dragging a cold front into the region. ECMWF
is faster than the GFS, with ECMWF showing the best shower and
thunderstorms chances Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night,
and GFS Wednesday night into Thursday. In either case, this should
hold temperatures back in the upper 80s for Thursday. For Sunday
and Monday, models indicate small chances for showers and storms
in the heat of the day, with these chances becoming area wide for
Tuesday. Chances will increase from the northwest on Wednesday
with the approach of the front, with the best chances Wednesday
night and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 624 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

With the exception of IFR/MVFR fog between 08-12Z, dry conditions
with scattered clouds AOA 050 expected as high pressure aloft
builds northward across the TAF sites. South southwest to
southwest winds will continue AOB 6 knots.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-
     107>112-114.

IN...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DH
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...JP





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