694
FXUS63 KPAH 150748
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
248 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue today across
  southwest Indiana and the Kentucky Pennyrile as surface low
  pressure slowly shifts east of the region.

- Another disturbance will bring a good chance of thunderstorms
  Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. Some of these storms
  could be strong to severe.

- Shower and thunderstorm activity will continue Friday into
  Saturday. More locally heavy rain and flooding issues are
  possible.

- Turning much warmer and muggy early next week, with high
  temperatures reaching the middle to upper 80s. A daily chance
  of showers and thunderstorms is forecast Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 248 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Today and Tonight...A vertically-stacked surface low continues
to slowly push eastward across the region early this morning.
This feature will slowly move into central KY/southern IN today,
with additional showers and thunderstorms developing during the
heat of the day. Across our region, this will mean isolated to
scattered convection over southwest IN and west KY, where SBCAPE
values will rise to 500-1000 J/kg. Locations further to the
west will stay dry with some clearing skies across southeast MO.
High temperatures will be seasonably mild, in the middle to
upper 70s. Tonight, skies will clear as the surface low moves
well to our east with dry northwest flow increasing. Low
temperatures will fall into the middle to upper 50s.

Thursday through Saturday...Another period of active weather is
forecast for the end of the week period. As Wednesday`s system
exits the area to the east, another expansive H5 shortwave
trough will eject into the central and southern Great Plains.
Surface low pressure will organize of the OK/TX Panhandles, with
an associated surface warm front lifting northward into the
region by Thursday morning.

Scattered convection will fire in the afternoon and evening
hours Thursday as the mid-level shortwave approaches. With
500-1000 J/kg of SBCAPE developing south of the warm front and
enhanced winds in the 700-500 mb layer, there will be the
potential for some strong to severe thunderstorms. Forecast
hodographs look to be quite straight, so large hail may be the
predominate severe weather hazard. However, with locally backed
SE winds possible near the warm front, a tornado or damaging
threat cannot be ruled out as well. SPC`s Day 2 marginal risk
across the entire CWA looks to be good for now.

High temperatures Thursday will rise into the upper 70s to lower
80s with dew point temperatures forecast to be in the lower to
middle 60s. PWAT values will remain near to slightly above
normal, so some locally heavy rain will be possible as well.
With many areas having received multiple rounds of heavy rain
over the last week, more flooding issues may develop by Thursday
evening.

On Friday, the parent surface low will move into the region and
become cut-off through Saturday. This will bring widespread rain
and thunderstorm activity to the region most of Friday, with
rainfall activity slowly ending from west to east on Saturday.
More heavy rain will be possible, with associated flooding
issues. Current QPF for the Thursday-Saturday period has a
broad swath of 1-2+" over the forecast area. However, locally
higher amounts are possible along with associated flooding
issues. If forecast confidence rises in higher rainfall totals,
a Flood Watch may need to be considered with later forecast
packages. High temperatures will be limited with rain and clouds
on Friday, with most areas reaching the lower to middle 70s. As
precipitation ends on Saturday, high temperatures will climb
into the upper 70s to lower 80s.

Sunday through Tuesday...The region will get a chance to dry out
on Sunday as H5 ridging builds over the region briefly. High
temperatures will warm into the middle to upper 80s as 850 mb
temperatures rise to 16-18C (via the long range model ensemble
mean). By Monday and Tuesday, mid-level flow will become zonal
again, with weak shortwaves bringing a renewed chance of
showers and thunderstorms, with the greatest chances during the
heat of the day. High temperatures will remain very warm, in the
middle to upper 80s with overnight lows in the middle to upper
60s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 553 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Scattered showers/storms remain possible in the vicinity of low
pressure drifting across the terminals. Restricted cigs/vsbys
can be expected with any storm. Activity should diminish with
nightfall, or at least wane. The recent heavy rainfall may allow
for some patchy fog or low cloud to develop overnight where
skies clear or at least bases scatter. Winds will pick up
toward daybreak, transitioning to an IFR cloud base before
daytime heating increases that to MVFR. Scattered showers/storms
are again possible tmrw, but mainly for eastern terminals
(KEVV/KOWB).

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DWS
AVIATION...DH