Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 280859

National Weather Service Paducah KY
259 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
Issued at 259 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2015

Pacific moisture will continue to interact with a slow moving cold
front today. Overrunning rains will continue on the cool side of the
front...especially along and south of the Ohio River. Chose to trim
off the northern portion of the flash flood watch, where rain
amounts should be lighter. Believe any heavier rainfall amounts will
be confined a bit closer to the surface boundary. Will continue the
rest of the watch through the afternoon, though current thinking is
that rains may taper off in the afternoon. Temperatures from near 60
to the lower 60s ahead of the cold front will fall quickly into the
40s behind the front. Once temps fall off this morning, they will
likely remain nearly steady through the rest of the day.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 259 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2015

Models show the front will extend across southeast portions of the
PAH forecast area by 00z Sunday, then just southeast of our region
by 00z Monday. ECMWF and the Canadian are in pretty good
agreement and are more consistent than the latest GFS, which
pushes the front farther southeast and dries us out quite a bit
for Sunday night into Monday. Prefer the wetter ECMWF and Canadian
solutions. Waves moving along the front will continue to produce
rain through the remainder weekend, with the best chances across
our southeast counties in closer proximity to the front. We will
continue with likely to categorical pops in our south, to chance
and slight chance pops for our northern counties through Sunday
night. Clouds/rain and light northerly winds will keep diurnal
temperature swings pretty small Saturday night into Sunday night,
with lows in the upper 30s north to upper 40s southeast, and highs
Sunday in the upper 40s north and west to the lower 50s southeast.

On Monday into Tuesday, the surface low will move from the Central
Plains into the Great Lakes region. This will finally help push
the front eastward, and rain chances will decrease from west to
east Monday into Monday night, with just some lingering small
chances in our far eastern counties Tuesday morning. Winds
shifting to the south to southwest in our region around the low
on Monday into Tuesday will help temperatures climb into the 50s
area wide.

Surface high pressure building to our west early in the work week
will slide eastward by mid week. This will keep our region dry
through the end of the week. This will also finally shift our
winds to the northwest to north. Temperatures will drop off to a
little below seasonal normals for Wednesday, moderating a little
for the end of the work week.


Issued at 1131 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015

With the slow passage of a frontal boundary, cigs and/or vsbys at
all sites will become IFR/LIFR through the period, however there
might be a slight improvement toward the end of the period (last
6-8 hours). Southeast winds AOB 10 knots will veer around to the
northwest to north AOB 10 knots in the wake of the frontal


.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...Flash Flood Watch through this afternoon for ILZ088-092-093.

MO...Flash Flood Watch through this afternoon for MOZ086-087-100-



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