Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 241202

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
701 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

Issued at 701 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

Updated aviation discussion.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 348 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

In the short term, the PAH forecast area will be under gradually
weakening northwesterly mid level flow, while a shortwave rotates
through the Great Lakes region early on. Behind this feature, dry
high pressure air is forecast to edge into the northeast corner
counties generally from tonight through Tue night. This will mean
surface dewpoints should drop into the upper half of the 60s in
the northeastern quadrant. By Wed, low level winds should begin
to gain a southerly component and thus, moisture is progged to
surge northeastward again, bringing dewpoints back to the lower
half of the 70s across the entire region.

Meanwhile, the flow aloft will become increasingly anti-cyclonic,
but not enough to preclude diurnally-driven deep moist convection
in an unstable trop, mainly in the southern half of the region
(through Tuesday). By Wed, with the surge of low level moisture,
coverage of showers and tstms should be only isolated, but across
nearly the entire region.

Highs are expected to be around 90 today and Tue, creeping up a
few degrees by Wed. This should confine 100+ afternoon heat
indices to parts of southeastern MO and the Purchase area of KY
today and Tue. Except for perhaps the easternmost counties, heat
indices from 100 to 105 can be expected Wed afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 348 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

Generally used a 00z EC/GFS blend in the long term, given the
reasonable agreement. Will have an increasing chance of convection
Thursday through Thursday night as a front moves in from the north.
Peak PoPs should be late Thursday through Thursday night,
diminishing from north to south Friday. After that, as high pressure
builds in, and NW flow aloft becomes better established, we should
have dry, pleasant conditions over the weekend. Used an even blend
of persistence and MOS for temps.


Issued at 701 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

Expect fair weather cumulus today, with some high clouds early, and
perhaps some isolated showers and tstms around the southern half of
the region in the afternoon. The probability of KCGI/KPAH being
affected by these is currently too low to mention. Light winds
should eventually take on a northeasterly fetch toward the end of
the TAF period.




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