Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 271752
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1252 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Sat Aug 27 2016

Updated for aviation section only.

UPDATE Issued at 611 AM CDT Sat Aug 27 2016

Updated the AVIATION discussion for the 12Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 237 AM CDT Sat Aug 27 2016

Average confidence in the short term.

A large area of showers associated with a decaying MCS/MCV at the
time of this writing will continue to shrivel up as it moves out of
our CWA early this morning.

Otherwise the short term forecast will continue to be dependent on
the strength and position of a dirty H5 ridge that fluctuates in
strength and position across our CWA through the period. As a
result, precipitation chances will be rather small and more diurnal
in nature with coverage mainly dependent on the location of small
scale/mesoscale focusing mechanisms such as outflow boundaries and
differential heating.

Temperatures will remain slightly above normal through the period.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 237 AM CDT Sat Aug 27 2016

A weak upper level high will be centered over the region to start
out the long term period. This upper high weakens even further
throughout the day and into the night time hours on Tuesday and we
end up in a weak northwest flow pattern aloft.

There is an upper level wave that will approach the area Wednesday
or Thursday, but timing continues to be a problem between models and
the different runs. Right now, this wave tends to weaken as it
approaches but it should provide a small chance for some rain.
Otherwise, chances for rain will be rather small. GFS ensemble
precip mean charts indicate the best chances for any rainfall will
be in our western counties, where the better moisture will be
located. For now, until models can get their timing in better sync,
will keep POPs low for the first few days of the extended.

Beyond that, an upper level ridge builds in and should shut off any
chances for rain for Friday.

Temperatures will be near 90 for Tuesday but should drop back down
into the 80s for the remainder of the extended forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Sat Aug 27 2016

High pressure in the upper levels will suppress convection for the
most part, however a cell or two might develop during the heat of
the day. With no discernable surface features, it`s too difucult
to try and pin down exactly where they will develop, so did not
mention in the TAfs at this time. Will need to monitor for some
fog issues overnight, but there was very little this AM.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GM
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...CW
AVIATION...GM



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