Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 292349
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
649 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

WITH THIS UPDATE...WILL BE LETTING THE EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNING/HEAT ADVISORY EXPIRE FROM THE LOCAL GRIDDED/TEXT/TABULAR
PRODUCT SUITE. THERE REMAINS A FEW LOCATIONS BETWEEN FROM DONIPHAN
MISSOURI TO MURRAY AND FORT CAMPBELL KENTUCKY THAT MAY REMAIN NEAR
CRITERIA FOR UP TO THE NEXT HOUR.

JUST ISSUED THE LAST STATEMENT FOR THE HEAT RELATED PRODUCTS THIS
WEEK AND WILL UPDATE RELATED PRODUCTS TO REFLECT THIS CHANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

ANOTHER VERY HOT AND HUMID DAY WILL SPILL INTO THE EARLY EVENING
OVER MANY LOCATIONS. MID AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES ONCE AGAIN ROSE
INTO THE 105 TO 115 DEGREE RANGE FOR SEVERAL HOURS. A BONAFIED
COLD FRONT SHOULD FINALLY EXIT THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT. COOLER
CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY LAG THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE A BIT...BUT IN
ESSENCE THE FRONT SHOULD SERVE TO BRING AN END TO THE CURRENT HEAT
WAVE. BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT UPPER SUPPORT AND WIND FIELDS WILL REMAIN
WEAK AND LOW LVL CONVERGENCE SHOULD PRECLUDE A WIDESPREAD SEVERE
THREAT.

MUCH NICER MID SUMMER TIME WEATHER SHOULD FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT
ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES EASTWARD THROUGH THE
MISSOURI VALLEY AND NORTHERLY WINDS USHER MORE COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY INTO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPS WILL ALSO FALL BACK INTO THE
UPPER HALF OF THE 80S TO NEAR 90 THURSDAY. EVEN THOUGH ACTUAL
TEMPERATURES MAY EASE BACK INTO THE LOWER 90S ON FRIDAY...HUMIDITY
LEVELS SHOULD BE HELD AT BAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WEST OF THE PAH FORECAST AREA WILL
KEEP NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS ACROSS OUR REGION ON SATURDAY.  THIS
WILL KEEP DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S, WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. MODELS SHOW THE HIGH SLIDING EAST OF
OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, WHICH WILL SHIFT WINDS
BACK TO THE SOUTH.  DEW POINTS WILL CREEP UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES,
BUT OVERALL THE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS WILL REMAIN
WELL INTO THE WORK WEEK.

A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLIP BACK INTO OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES MONDAY NIGHT AS A FRONT SLIDES SOUTH TOWARD OUR
REGION.  SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL SPREAD ACROSS OUR
ENTIRE AREA TUESDAY, AND THE FRONT WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES
IN OUR FORECAST THROUGH MID WEEK.  THE BEST CHANCES SO FAR LOOK TO
BE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

ALL OF THE CONVECTION HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WFO PAH TAF
SITES...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST BEHIND THE COLD
FROMT FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SMITH
AVIATION...SMITH
SHORT TERM...MEFFERT
LONG TERM...RST



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