Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 210449
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1149 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1149 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 06Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 240 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Seasonably chilly high pressure will take over for this time
period. With nearly clear conditions expected, the dry air will
likely warm to the warmer end of the forecast model envelope. Night
times may be a little cooler than guidance tho. Could actually be
some light frost by the mid week time frame in normally colder
locations.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Models show an upper level ridge over the region will gradually
break down Thursday. This will allow a weak trof to move across the
middle Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys Thursday night into
Friday.  Latest ECMWF produces a smattering of minimal QPF in our
area, but the previous ECMWF along with the latest GFS and GEM keep
our region dry.  Dry weather will continue into the weekend as huge
ridge of high pressure builds over a majority of the U.S.  The ridge
will gradually slide east of our area by early next week, but the
dry conditions should persist into Monday.

Winds will shift to the south Thursday, and temperatures will
gradually warm into the weekend.  Slightly below to near seasonal
readings can be expected Thursday and Friday, then temperatures will
level off a few degrees above normal for the weekend into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1149 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

A weak cold front has turned light winds to the northwest this
evening. A secondary wind shift is working southward and may veer
winds to due north and spread some scattered 6kft clouds over KEVV
and eventually KOWB by daybreak. Guidance is less bullish for fog
at KCGI, but winds are likely to go calm and the dewpoint is
holding close to 50, so will leave the fog forecast alone there. No
fog expected elsewhere. North winds will increase a bit with
mixing Tuesday, and there will be a pretty thick cu field,
especially east of the Mississippi. A periodic lower VFR ceiling
will be possible.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...MEFFERT
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...DRS





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