Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 011204
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
604 AM CST Sun Feb 1 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 556 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

For aviation section only.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 304 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

Looks like a rainy day is in store for the region as sfc low
pressure moves east into central IL. Deep positive omega fields
and quite high PWAT values for this time of year will likely
result in an inch or so of rainfall at many locations. It will be
well into this evening before the cold air begins to surge through
the area, and by this time most of the deep moisture will be
moving east of the area...so little or no snow is expected. Could
still see some flurries late tonight as wrap around moisture
rotates in from the wnw. However, any left over puddles on
roadways may freeze late tonight as temps fall back below
freezing. Most of the roads will likely dry in the brisk northwest
winds behind the front tho. Winds may gust up close to 30 mph
tonight.

Temps on Monday will likely struggle to reach freezing in most
areas, and will probably stay in the 20s up along the I-64
corridor. Cold Canadian high pressure will move in over area
Monday night. However, mid level clouds moving in from the nw may
mitigate the cold a bit. Because of this, will go a few degrees
above advertised MOS values. Should see a pretty nice winter day
on Tuesday as sunshine returns and temps rebound from the 20s to
afternoon highs in the 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 304 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

The primary concern in the extended continues to be the chance for
light precipitation late Wednesday into Thursday as we transition to
the next arctic air mass. Forecast confidence through the period has
improved over the last 24 hours, but some uncertainty still remains
with the mid week system.

The period will start off with a relatively flat upper air pattern
on Wednesday. Combined with strong southerly low level flow, this
should allow temperatures to warm into 40s. All models agree that a
transition back to deep northwesterly flow will take place mid week
as an upper level ridge develops in the west with a trough in the
east. This development will force another surge of arctic air into
the region Wednesday night and Thursday.

It is along and behind this next arctic surge that our next chance
of light wintry precipitation arrives with an approaching upper
level wave. All models are now roughly within 6 hours of each other
with respect to timing of frontal passage and precipitation. Also,
the once stubbornly dry ECMWF has now come around to the wetter GFS
and GEM. As a result, we have elevated precipitation probabilities
well into the chance category Wednesday night.

Temperatures through much of the event appear favorable for snow
across the northern half of the area. Over the southern half,
forecast temperature profiles would suggest rain or a mix Wednesday
evening, with a transition to all snow overnight into Thursday. If
the forecast remained unchanged from here, around an inch of snow
accumulation might be expected--but that`s looking 4 days out at
this point...

Much colder air will settle into the region on Thursday as arctic
high pressure drops south from Canada. Highs Thursday may stay below
freezing in most locations, with lows in the teens Thursday night. A
moderating trend will take place late in the week as the high shifts
east of the area and low level winds turn southerly. Highs by
Saturday may make a run at 50 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 557 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

Expect widespread MVFR cigs and vsbys to r- br through the
daylight hours. Could approach IFR through the mid day or early
aftn. Southerly winds will pick up Sunday morning with gust into
the low 20s possible. Vsbys will improve after frontal passage
this evening and winds will gust 20-30 kts from the northwest.
MVFR cigs will likely prevail however.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GM
SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...RJP
AVIATION...GM






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