Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY

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FNUS75 KRIW 131135
FWSRIW

Spot Forecast for Sylvan Bay Piles...USFS
National Weather Service Riverton WY
435 AM MST Mon Nov 13 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 MST on November 13.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...A cold front will move across the area this evening.
Mild conditions will precede the front this afternoon with
increasing clouds from the northwest. A steep inversion will
remain 1500-2000 feet AGL, so smoke dispersal will be poor. The
cold front will bring some light snow mainly after midnight
through Tuesday morning. Drier, cooler conditions with gusty
west-northwest wind will follow Tuesday afternoon. A more
significant winter storm will impact the area Thursday into Friday
morning.

...Thunderstorms imply strong gusty and erratic winds...
...Haines index is high level haines both day and night...

FORECASTER...Meunier

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (10-20 percent) in the morning.
                    Becoming partly cloudy (40-50 percent) in the afternoon,
                    and mostly cloudy (70-80 percent) by sunset.
Max temperature.....41-44.
Min humidity........34-37 percent.
20-foot winds.......Light and variable in the morning, becoming
                    southeast 5 to 10 mph around noon, gusts up to
                    15 mph in the afternoon.
Ridge top winds.....West to southwest 5 to 10 mph in the morning,
                    becoming south in the afternoon.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Chc of wetting rain.Zero percent.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......800-1000 ft AGL in the morning, increasing to
                    to 1500 to 2000 ft AGL in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....West 5 to 10 mph in the morning,
                    Southwest around 15 mph in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (80-100 percent). Slight chance of
                    snow late in the evening. Chance of snow after
                    midnight. Accumulations of less than one inch.
Min temperature.....24-27.
Max humidity........79-82 percent.
20-foot winds.......Southeast winds around 5 to 10 mph, gusts
                    near 15 mph early in the evening.
Ridge top winds.....South 5 to 10 mph.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Chc of wetting rain.3 percent.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......500-1000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 10 to 15 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor.

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent) in the morning, becoming
                    partly cloudy (35-45 percent) mid to late afternoon.
                    Chance of snow through early afternoon. Any accumulations
                    will be light, an inch or less.
Max temperature.....35-38.
Min humidity........54-57 percent.
20-foot winds.......West 5-10 mph, increasing to 10 to 15 mph with gusts of 20
                    to 25 mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Ridge top winds.....West 10 to 15 mph.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Chc of wetting rain.30 percent.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......1000-1500 ft AGL in the morning,
                    increasing to 5400-6400 ft AGL in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....West 15 to 20 mph, increasing to 20 to 25 mph
                    in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor/Fair in the morning. Very good in the afternoon.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...

.TUESDAY NIGHT...
Colder. Mostly clear. Lows around 15. Winds generally less than
10 mph.

.WEDNESDAY...
Becoming mostly cloudy. Highs in the lower 40s. Winds generally
less than 10 mph.

.THURSDAY...
Snow or a rain and snow mix likely. Lows in the mid 20s.
Highs in the upper 30s. West to southwest wind 15 to 20 mph and gusty.

.FRIDAY...
Colder. Partly cloudy. Chance of snow. Lows in the lower 20s.
Highs in the upper 20s. Winds generally less than 10 mph.

$$
Forecaster...Meunier
Requested by...Dave Wilkins
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1718606.1/RIW
.EMAIL dawilkins@fs.fed.us


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