Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 201623
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1023 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DRY AND MILD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TODAY WILL GIVE WAY
TO A PACIFIC COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY. DRY AND MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SOUTHERLY FLOW IS OVER THE CWA THIS MORNING TO THE
EAST OF AN ELONGATED UPPER TROF ALONG THE WEST COAST. A LITTLE
TROPICAL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS ERN UT AND WORKS NORTH AND
WEST TODAY AS THE UPPER TROF BEGINS TO MOVE INLAND.

EXPECT SOME AFTN CONVECTION TODAY FROM THIS MOISTURE FOR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND POSSIBLY THE ERN VALLEYS.

THE PAC TROF LIFTS NEWD TONIGHT THRU TUE AS AN UPSTREAM TROF
FORCES IT TO WEAKEN AND EJECT INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT MAINTAINS ENOUGH INTEGRITY THAT COMBINED WITH THE
MOISTURE IN PLACE TO PRODUCE AN ORGANIZED BAND OF PRECIP FOR THE
NRN CWA TUE MORNING WITH SHOWERS LINGERING ALONG THE STALLING
FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL UT IN THE AFTN AS WELL AS IN THE PREFRONTAL
MOISTURE OVER SERN UT.

THE EJECTING NATURE OF THIS TROF PREVENTS MUCH COLD AIR FROM
REACHING THE CWA AND IT APPEARS THE BULK OF THE PRECIP FOR NRN UT
OCCURS BEFORE THE 700 MB TEMPS REACH 0C. SO THE THREAT OF ANY HIGH
ELEVATION SNOWFALL LOOKS SMALL AND IMPACTS LOOK NEGLIGIBLE.

AS THE FRONT DOES NOT MAKE IT THROUGH THE CWA...LINGERING MOISTURE
ACROSS THE SOUTH LIFTS NWD WED AS THE STALLED BOUNDARY LIFTS NWD
AS A WEAK WARM FRONT. MODELS DO NOT GENERATE ANY QPF FROM THIS
HOWEVER. INCREASING SWLY FLOW THU INTO SAT AHEAD OF THE NEXT PAC
TROF KEEPS THE CWA DRY AND MILD. SO THE IDEA OF A DRY FORECAST
WED THRU SAT APPEARS OK.

NO UPDATES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS CURRENTLY AT THE KSLC TERMINAL
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH 20-21Z BEFORE SWITCHING TO
THE NORTHWEST. A SWITCH BACK TO SOUTHEAST IS EXPECTED AROUND 03Z
WITH GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 14-16Z TUESDAY
BRINGING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...LIGHT RAIN AND CIGS AT OR BELOW
6000FT AGL THROUGH MIDDAY.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

WILENSKY/MERRILL

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



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