Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 212122
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
322 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS CENTRAL UTAH
TONIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON WEDNESDAY. DRY AND
MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THRU 00Z SAT)...THE UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO LIFT
NEWD TOWARDS THE NRN PLAINS THIS AFTN WITH A COLD FRONT DRAPED
ACROSS THE N CENTRAL CWA. THIS FRONT IS STALLING OUT AND WILL
SHIFT A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH TO NEAR A MILFORD TO PRICE LINE
BEFORE STALLING THIS EVE.

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS CONTINUE TO FORM ALONG THE STALLING
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE REFORMED ACROSS
THE FAR N AHEAD OF ONE FINAL VORT LOBE BEFORE THE TROF AXIS
PASSES.

THE SHOWERS WILL LINGER ALONG THE FRONT INTO THE NIGHT THEN
DISSIPATE BEFORE MORNING. THE FAR NRN SHOWERS SHOULD END EARLY
THIS EVE AND CLEARING SKIES OVER THE NORTH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO
DIP TO CHILLY LEVELS TONIGHT.

WEAK RIDGING ALOFT FOLLOWS THIS TROF FOR WED AND THE OLD FRONT
LIFTS N AS A WARM FRONT. ONLY EXPECT SOME CLOUDINESS AND NO PRECIP
WITH THIS WARM FRONT. THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS E THU BUT HEIGHTS
CONTINUE TO RISE THU AND FRI WITH A WARM DRY SWLY FLOW IN PLACE.

OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDINESS CROSSES THE CWA WED THRU THU THEN IS
FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH WITH A SUNNY WARM DAY ON TAP FOR FRI WITH
LOCAL S WINDS IN THE WRN VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z SATURDAY)...STRONG TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE WEST
COAST FRIDAY NIGHT WILL GRADUALLY LOSE SOME OF ITS PUNCH AS IT
TRANSFORMS INTO A BROADER TROUGH AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. NONETHELESS...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN VALLEYS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MILD TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT AND PRETTY WARM
TEMPERATURES FOR LATE OCTOBER ON SATURDAY.

THE EC AND GFS HAVE COME INTO TIMING AND STRENGTH AGREEMENT FOR THE
TROUGH WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL WASATCH FRONT
ABOUT MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SOUTHEAST UTAH SUNDAY
EVENING. THE BEST DYNAMICS REMAIN OVER NORTHERN UTAH SO DOES NOT
LOOK VERY PROMISING FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH. HAVE BACKED OFF ON
POPS FOR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA FOR SUNDAY. HAVE
ADDED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS INTO MONDAY
AS THE 500 MB COLD POCKET STILL HANGING ON.

RIDGE BUILDS IN FOR LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOR A WARMING TREND BY
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE SLC TERMINAL
THROUGH THIS EARLY EVENING WITH GUSTS IN THE 15-20 MPH RANGE BUT
WILL RELAX THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST UNTIL AFTER ABOUT 09Z WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF
OCCURRING BY 07Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WILENSKY
LONG TERM/AVIATION...STRUTHWOLF

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



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