Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 231627
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1027 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY AND MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP TODAY AND
PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL BRING
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES STATEWIDE WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH FOR SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...BUILDING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST WILL
RESULT IN WARM/DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS UTAH THROUGH SATURDAY.
MAJOR CHANGES ARE IN STORE FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND. A SHORTWAVE
EJECTING OUT OF THE COLD CORE VORTEX OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL
STRENGTHEN AS IT ADVANCES ON THE WEST COAST SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE
WILL CONTINUE EAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. A
PERSISTENT COLD/MOIST CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION TO MAINLY NORTHERN UTAH INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE THERMAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED OUT ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL BE THE FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION
TODAY. THIS FEATURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO ADVANCE INTO UTAH...THOUGH
THE TIGHTENING THERMAL GRADIENT TO OUR NORTH SHOULD HELP INCREASE
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE STATE TODAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
HIGHER TODAY...THOUGH GOOD MIXING IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL
FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA.

TEMPERATURE TRENDS SHOULD CONTINUE UPWARD THROUGH SATURDAY.
SATURDAY DOES LOOK TO BE QUITE WINDY AS THE SURFACE FRONT OVER
NEVADA BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED AND IS SUPPORTED BY STRONG LOW-
LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS UTAH. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE QUITE
WARM...BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. SOME CLOUDS
MAY WORK IN AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THOUGH WITH ELEVATED MORNING LOWS
AND STILL DECENT MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON THE POSSIBILITY OF
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOKS GOOD AT THIS POINT IN TIME.

MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE WITH THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN UTAH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN OVER ALL BUT THE
EXTREME SOUTH SUNDAY. THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL REMAIN
CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE NORTH IN THE CORE OF THE COLD UPPER
TROUGH ON SUNDAY/MONDAY. THE LATEST VERSIONS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF
ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS STORM...
THOUGH THE ECMWF DOES NOT BRING THE COLDEST AIR AS FAR SOUTH AS
DOES THE GFS.

A PERSISTENT CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW WITH PLENTY OF COLD AIR AND
MOIST SHOULD MAINTAIN SNOW AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN
UTAH INTO MONDAY EVENING. ADJACENT VALLEY AREAS WILL ALSO SEE AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF PRECIP...WITH THE PRECIP TYPE BOUNCING BETWEEN
RAIN AND SNOW DEPENDING ON THE INTENSITY OF THE PRECIP. SOME
ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ALONG THE BENCH AREAS
IN THIS EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION...WINDS AT THE SLC TERMINAL ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO
THE NORTHWEST AROUND 20-21Z TODAY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT
SOUTHERLIES PERSIST THROUGH 22Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL...WITH ANY CEILINGS REMAINING WELL ABOVE 7000FT THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD.

&&


.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...CONGER
AVIATION...SCHOENING

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



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