Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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FXUS65 KSLC 162135

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
335 PM MDT Mon Oct 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A warming trend will continue through the middle portion
of the week as high pressure remains in place. The next storm system
is forecast to cross the area Friday into Saturday morning.


.SHORT TERM (Through 00Z Friday)...High pressure remains centered
just to the west of the forecast area this afternoon, resulting in
a dry and stable west to northwest flow. The airmass at 700mb is
in the +6C to +8C range, resulting in continued mild conditions
over the higher terrain. Though noticeably warmer than yesterday
in the valleys, limited mixing is inhibiting these temperatures
from being fully realized in the valleys. As a result, maxes are
running just a few degrees below seasonal normals.

The ridge is expected to track east tonight and tomorrow as it
flattens, with the axis moving east of the forecast area by
tomorrow afternoon. The resultant west to southwest flow will
allow for improved mixing, resulting in further warming in the
valleys and allowing those maxes to warm to values a little above

Models have been consistent in indicating that a rather weak
shortwave will impact southern Utah late Tuesday into Wednesday,
though they continue to disagree with regard to the precise track
of this wave. The main impact of this wave will be to increase
cloud cover somewhat, with little if any associated precipitation
anticipated. Behind this wave, the flow aloft is expected to
become more southerly beginning Thursday ahead of the next
approaching storm system, allowing for more mixing and warming
valley temps just a bit. These winds could become breezy for many
locations across the forecast area on Friday as the system and
associated cold front approach.


.LONG TERM (After 00z Friday)...The late week trough continues to
trend less amplified and more progressive in guidance, with the H5
cold pool remaining north of the UT/ID border with passage late
Friday/Friday night. With this, both any connection to deeper
moisture from the south, or strong deep layer CAA from the north are
lost. Guidance continues to portray a decent mid level baroclinic
zone with passage of the cold front, but with upper level support
just a bit too far north the frontal push should be fairly shallow,
with any precip confined to this zone Friday evening through mid
level axis passage early Sat morning. Model QPF has decreased as
such (both in areal coverage and significance). Have continued a
trend of lowering PoPs this package.

Warm advection in slightly anticyclonic w-nw flow will punch into
northern portions of the area rapidly Saturday into the overnight
hours. Outside of a net increase/maintenance of clouds over the
north, do not foresee much precip threat in this pattern as the
better forcing remains tied north closer to the jet.

Thereafter through the end of the period mid level ridging is
expected to build into the Great Basin region yielding another
period of tranquil and near seasonal conditions early next week.


.AVIATION...Operational weather concerns will remain minimal at the
KSLC terminal through the valid TAF period. Light northerly winds
currently in place are expected to return to the southeast between





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