Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 302147
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
347 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR ROCKIES STATES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WAVE TOMORROW
EVENING WILL BRING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS BEFORE
STABILIZING SOME FOR THE WEEKEND. A STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE AXIS HAS SHIFTED TO OUR WEST BEHIND
THE UPPER WAVE THAT LIFTED THROUGH THE AREA YESTERDAY. NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT HAS AIDED TO DRY THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS SOME TODAY
BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS PLENTIFUL WITH PWAT RANGING FROM .9
TO 1.3 INCHES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. REMNANT CLOUD SHIELD ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST HAS DONE WONDERS TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THUS
FAR TODAY BUT SOME THINNING HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO JUMP SOME 10
DEGREES OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...THIS FINALLY ALLOWING SOME AREAS
TO REACH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES. AN INCREASE OF SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED STORMS THE RESULT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST BUT UPDRAFTS HAVE
REMAINED WEAK. ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
MTNS. EXPECTING SIMILAR CONDITIONS INTO THE EVENING.

ALTHOUGH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL AID TO DRY THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT
AND EXPECT SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO REMAIN IN PLACE.
UPPER LOW WEST OF BAJA NOTED IN WATER VAPOR WILL TRACK TOWARDS THE
AREA LATER TOMORROW AND BE OVERHEAD TOMORROW NIGHT PROVIDING
ADDITIONAL LIFT TO AID CONVECTION AT THAT TIME. A STRONGER UPPER
LOW AND ASSOCIATED MONSOONAL MOISTURE SURGE REMAINS ON TAP LATER
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THIS LATTER FEATURE WILL HAVE A BETTER
TRAJECTORY TO TAP SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN...WITH FORECAST
PWAT AS HIGH AS 1.6 INCHES ACROSS THE EAST AND 1.2 TO 1.3 INCHES
IN THE WEST DURING THAT TIME.

MADE MINIMAL CHANGES TO POP GRIDS REGARDING THOSE TWO WAVES...BUT
DID ONCE AGAIN SHY AWAY FROM BIAS CORRECTED TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
FOR MAX TEMPS ON MONDAY. SHOULD BE YET ANOTHER COOL UNSETTLED DAY
WITH TEMPS STRUGGLING TO EXCEED 80 ACROSS THE WASATCH FRONT AND
LOWERED MAX TEMPS A BIT TO REFLECT THINKING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME DISPLACED WEST IN WAKE OF
THIS WAVE PASSING. GLOBAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A DRY
NORTHERLY FLOW AND GRADUAL WARMING TREND OF TEMPS FOR THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
IMPACTING THE SLC TERMINAL BETWEEN 22Z AND 04Z...WITH MVFR
VISIBILITIES IN MODERATE-TO-HEAVY RAIN AND CEILINGS BELOW 7000FT AS
THE MOST LIKELY IMPACTS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS COULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT NORTH IS THE MOST LIKELY DIRECTION FOR
ANY WINDS STRONGER THAN 6 KNOTS THROUGH 02Z...BEFORE WINDS SWITCH TO
THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 02Z AND 04Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER....DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE DISTRICT THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT IT WILL SLOWLY BECOME DRIER THROUGH FRIDAY.
STILL...DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR A THREAT OF CONVECTION...PRIMARILY DURING
THE AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A WEAK STORM SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY WILL PROVIDE A BIT OF
ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY BEFORE CONDITIONS BECOME MORE STABLE
SATURDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE DISTRICT FROM THE
SOUTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL RESULT IN INCREASING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS SHOULD BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND
TERRAIN DRIVEN OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

MERRILL/SCHOENING/TRAPHAGAN


FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



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