Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 271034
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
434 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH EARLY THIS WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
WILL RETURN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH MOISTURE
POTENTIALLY RETURNING LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY)...A COLD TROUGH...ESPECIALLY
FOR LATE JULY...WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION THIS MORNING...REACHING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY THIS
EVENING. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM
ROUGHLY WENDOVER TO SNOWVILLE THIS MORNING AND WILL MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING...CROSSING THE ENTIRE WASATCH
FRONT BY 16-17Z. THE BEST SYNOPTIC LEVEL FORCING AND DEEP MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE IDAHO/UTAH BORDER. MUCH OF
THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES ENOUGH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL EXIST NEAR THE FRONT AS IT CROSSES FAR NORTHERN UTAH TO
WARRANT A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...MAINLY NORTH OF
OGDEN...THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COOL ACROSS THE NORTH TODAY...WITH
HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS MANY NORTHERN
VALLEYS. EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 0000 UTC WEDNESDAY)...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN FROM
THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK PLACING UTAH UNDER A DRY WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. THIS KEEPS HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CONFINED TO
AREAS SOUTH OF UTAH AND EXPECT A DRY DAY ACROSS THE STATE ON
WEDNESDAY AS TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO JUST BELOW NORMAL.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SUBTLE MID LEVEL DEFORMATION AXIS LIFTS
NORTH INTO SOUTHERN UTAH WHICH ALLOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF
AROUND .75" TO LIFT NORTH TO NEAR THE UTAH-ARIZONA BORDER.
HOWEVER...DRY WESTERLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE OVER MOST OF THE
STATE. ON FRIDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INCREASINGLY SHOWING
BETTER MOISTURE LIFTING INTO FAR SOUTHERN UTAH AND HAVE INCLUDED
SLIGHT CHANCES POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN QUARTER OF UTAH. STARTING TO
SEE A TREND OF BRINGING THE MOISTURE NORTH A LITTLE MORE
QUICKLY...SO MAY BE A LITTLE LIGHT ON THE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH
AT THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL
ON THURSDAY AND THEN CLIMB A BIT MORE ON FRIDAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER
OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL SET UP NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
ALLOWING FOR MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS ALLOWS DEEPER
MOISTURE TO BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH INTO UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SLOWLY EXTEND THE SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE
POPS FURTHER NORTH EACH DAY DURING THIS PERIOD. LARGELY CONFINED
TO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH ON SATURDAY EXPANDING TO NEARLY ALL
OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING BY MONDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING AT THE SLC TERMINAL. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
TERMINAL BETWEEN 15-17Z...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST.
WINDS MAY REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A STRONG BUT MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS MUCH
OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTSIDE OF A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN UTAH...EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE STATE. GUSTY WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN
UTAH LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON MAY CAUSE ISOLATED
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...BUT A WIDESPREAD THREAT IS NOT
EXPECTED.

UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN
DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATER PORTION OF THE WEEK...BRINGING A WARMING
TREND TO THE DISTRICT. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE LATER THIS
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...BRINGING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN UTAH BY FRIDAY.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...GRAHAM
AVIATION...KRUSE
FIRE WEATHER...KRUSE

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)


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