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000
FXUS65 KSLC 071105
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
405 AM MST FRI MAR 7 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OF
THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND BRINGING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE. THE
NEXT PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY.


&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z MONDAY)...A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA IS PUSHING A RATHER STRONG
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH SOUTHERN UT EARLY THIS MORNING. A BAND OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO WORK ITS WAY SOUTHEAST THROUGH SUNRISE...AND HAVE
MAINTAINED SCATTERED WORDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FOR THE MORNING
HOURS. IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY...COLD AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO
FILTER INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UT...AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR SHOWERS
TO REDEVELOP DURING THE DAY...MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. CURRENTLY SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM
WATERS OF THE GSL AND SPREADING DOWNSTREAM INTO SALT LAKE AND
TOOELE COUNTIES.

AS THIS TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY SEE A DOWNWARD TREND IN AREAL COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION AS INSTABILITY BEGINS TO WANE. GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE
NATURE OF THIS PRECIPITATION HAVE DISCONTINUED THE GOING WINTER WX
ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...AS ANY ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MINOR WITH MINIMAL IMPACT.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS DEPARTING WAVE...MID LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST
TO QUICKLY BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT...AND REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS RIDGE WILL BRING TRANQUIL
WEATHER AREAWIDE ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z MONDAY)...THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE AREA BY MONDAY MORNING...ALLOWING SOUTHWEST WINDS TO
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE INITIAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BRINGING IT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. 700 MB TEMPS IN THE -
10C TO -12C RANGE WOULD SUPPORT SNOW TO NORTHERN UTAH VALLEY FLOORS
BY TUESDAY MORNING. SLOWED DOWN THE TIMING ON LOWERING SNOW LEVELS A
BIT BECAUSE VALLEY SNOW NO LONGER SEEMS TO BE A THREAT DURING THE
MONDAY FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

IN BOTH THE EC AND THE GFS THE SYSTEM LINGERS OVER AT LEAST PART OF
THE STATE...BUT IN THE LATEST ECMWF IT MOVES A BIT FARTHER EAST
BEFORE SLOWING DOWN. THEREFORE...MOISTURE ONLY LINGERS OVER EASTERN
UTAH AND REMAINS IN PLACE UNTIL WEDNESDAY BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN.
THE LATEST GFS KEEPS THE TROUGH OVER THE STATE THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT AS IT WEAKENS WITH DECENT MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. BECAUSE OF THIS...ADDED CHANCE POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR
THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. TRENDED TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT WITH THE SYSTEM
AS WELL BUT THE LATEST RUNS ARE A BIT COLDER THAN WHAT MODELS HAVE
BEEN INDICATING PREVIOUSLY. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FULLY MOVE
IN BY FRIDAY...BUT MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY FOLLOW FOR
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING AT THE
SLC TERMINAL. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 6000 FT AGL DURING
THE MORNING BEFORE BECOMING MORE SCATTERED DURING THE AFTERNOON.
NORTHWEST WINDS MAY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z.

&&

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$

SEAMAN/TRAPHAGAN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
VISIT... HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)