Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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932
FXUS65 KSLC 051529
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
929 AM MDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...AN INCREASINGLY STRONG AND MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. A SLOW MOVING PACIFIC
STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INLAND THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
FRIDAY...THEN SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MORNING WATER VAPOR AND H5 ANALYSIS INDICATE THE MEAN
RIDGE AXIS HAS SHIFTED EAST IN ADVANCE OF A CLOSED LOW ADVANCING ON
SHORE ALONG THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST. CIRRUS BLOW OFF FROM
THE LATTER CONTINUES TO STREAM IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS MID LEVEL
FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE. SAID CLOUD COVER AIDED VERY WARM TEMPS
ACROSS MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT...WITH THE KSLC LOW TEMP HOLDING AT
63F JUST AN HOUR OR SO AGO. WITH A VERY WARM START TO THE DAY...
ANOTHER DEGREE OF H7 WARMING ANTICIPATED TODAY...AND DEEP MIXING
OF INCREASING SW FLOW ALOFT /25-30 KNOTS AT H7 THIS AFTERNOON/
WILL SEE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY TODAY WITH TEMPS RUNNING 10-15+
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO. BREEZY SOUTHERLIES EXPECTED ACROSS THE
WESTERN VALLEYS AS WELL...THOUGH LACK OF A SUPPORTING MSLP
GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP GUSTS BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

SHORT TERM ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO INDICATE A HIGH PROBABILITY OF
SHALLOW INSTABILITY DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON /RELEGATED TO THE
LAYER BETWEEN H5.5 AND H3.5/. EXPECTING SHALLOW HIGH BASED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE TERRAIN IN AN ISOLATED MANNER AS PWAT JUST ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT. WITH VERY DRY LOW LEVELS IN PLACE DO NOT
ANTICIPATE PRECIP THREATS BUT RATHER GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY CELLS THAT
FORM. THIS POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...AND MORE SO TOMORROW AS THE TROUGH AND
ATTENDANT JET NOSE IN FROM THE WEST BOTH INCREASING SHEAR
AND PROMOTING A STEEPENING OF LAPSE RATES.

MADE ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO INCREASE POPS OVER THE TERRAIN IN THE
WESTERN AREAS PER TRENDS IN HRRR. LEFT MENTIONABLE POPS OUT OF
VALLEYS AS DRY LOW LEVELS SHOULD PROMOTE VIRGA/GUSTY WINDS RATHER
THAN PRECIP TODAY.

&&

.AVIATION...STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN SOUTH WINDS AT THE KSLC TERMINAL TODAY. SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH
STRONG WINDS POSSIBLY RETURNING LATE TONIGHT. CEILINGS WELL ABOVE
12 KFT ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...MERRILL
AVIATION...CONGER

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



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