Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 222123
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
323 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA
TONIGHT. DRY AND MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY AND
PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. THE NEXT PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THRU 00Z SUN)...WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING PERSISTS
OVER THE GREAT BASIN THIS AFTN WITH THIN CIRRUS STREAMING THROUGH
THE RIDGE.

EXPECT THE CIRRUS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT AS THE
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST BUT WILL PROBABLY NOT BE THICK ENOUGH TO
AFFECT OVERNIGHT LOWS...THAT SHOULD BE ON THE COOL SIDE AGAIN.

THE RIDGE AXIS CROSSES THE CWA BY 12Z THU AND CLOUDS SHOULD
THICKEN SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE NORTH AS JET AROUND BASE OF EPAC TROF
SAGS A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE CWA. THE PROXIMITY OF THE JET SHOULD
ALSO ENHANCE MIXING A BIT AND CLOUDS SHOULD BE PATCHY ENOUGH TO
ALLOW TEMPS SHOULD WARM SIGNIFICANTLY FROM TODAY.

THE PATTERN AMPLIFIES THU NIGHT INTO FRI WITH RISING HEIGHTS OVER
THE CWA SHUNTING THE JETSTREAM AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS NORTH. SWLY
FLOW ALSO PICK UP A LITTLE FRI AND EXPECTED A FEW MORE DEGREES
WARMING. SOUTH WINDS START TO PICK UP SAT AS THE NEXT PAC TROF
STARTS MOVING ASHORE BUT SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN SUB ADVISORY. TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM ON SAT ALTHO SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
AND A LITTLE COOLING ALOFT COULD SHAVE A DEGREE OR SO OFF MAXES
FROM FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z SUNDAY)...SATURDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE WARM
YET AGAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF UTAH...AS STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES OUT AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC TROUGH. IN THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA...THE ECMWF INDICATES THAT THE COLD FRONT
COULD BE THROUGH THE AREA BY 12Z SUNDAY...BUT THE CURRENT RUN OF THE
GFS IS ABOUT 6-12 HOURS SLOWER WITH THIS FRONT. EITHER WAY...A
SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIRMASS WILL BE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BY LATE
SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...WITH 700MB
TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS -8 CELSIUS OVER THE UTAH/IDAHO BORDER BY 12Z
MONDAY.

WHILE THIS SYSTEM IS NOT ESPECIALLY MOIST...CURRENT SOLUTIONS DO
PRODUCE A BAND OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE COLD FRONT...AND INDICATE
THE POTENTIAL FOR CONTINUING SHOWERS IN NORTHERN UTAH SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. HAVE INCREASED POPS
A BIT THROUGH THIS PERIOD...AND BROUGHT DOWN SNOW LEVELS AS THE COLD
AIR FILTERS IN...WITH A POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW MIX ALONG THE WASATCH
FRONT IF SHOWERS HAPPEN TO LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING.

THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO EXIT THE REGION THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF
MONDAY...WITH DRYING LOW LEVELS AND WARM ADVECTION ALOFT MONDAY
NIGHT. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT STARTING TUESDAY...WITH THE GFS
PROMOTING A MOIST ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE EC HAS A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
RIDGE. HAVE KEPT A SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH THIS EXTENDED PART OF
THE FORECAST...WITH POPS TRENDING TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY ON DAY 7. WHILE
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN POOR IN DAYS 6-10...THE 12Z RUNS OF
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE WARM ADVECTION SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER
UTAH FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...OUT AHEAD OF A DEEPER PACIFIC TROUGH
OVER CALIFORNIA.

&&

.AVIATION...OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS AT THE SLC TERMINAL ARE
MINIMAL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS AND
CEILINGS ABOVE 7000FT. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD SWITCH BACK TO THE
SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 02Z AND 04Z.

&&


.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WILENSKY
LONG TERM/AVIATION...SCHOENING

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



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