Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 312141
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
341 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK. A PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BRING
A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN UTAH FOR THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS DRAPED OVER SOUTHERN UTAH
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE ASSOCIATED STORM SYSTEM CENTERED OVER
WYOMING MOVES QUICKLY OUT OF THE REGION. A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS
HAS MOVED OVER THE FORECAST AREA...RESULTING IN JUST SOME
SCATTERED CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES OVER NORTHERN UTAH ARE
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...AROUND 10F BELOW SEASONAL
NORMS. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTHERN UTAH ARE SIMILAR TO
VALUES OBSERVED YESTERDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEK...ALLOWING DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE. THE
BUILDING RIDGE WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND...WITH MAXES
EXPECTED TO BE AT OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO BY TUESDAY ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

BY WEDNESDAY...GLOBAL MODELS ALL MOVE A TROUGH ONSHORE ALONG THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THEY HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...SLOWING PUSHING IT INTO THE
NORTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES BY FRIDAY AS IT SPLITS. THE SYSTEM IS
PROGGED ONLY TO GET AS FAR SOUTHERN AS SOUTHERN IDAHO.
HOWEVER...IT WILL SHIFT THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA EAST...ALLOWING
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP. THIS WILL ALLOW JUST A BIT OF MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY TO RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK...RESULTING IN SOME CONVECTION PRIMARILY FOCUSED OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF UTAH. THE SYSTEM IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BRING
ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN UTAH...DROPPING TEMPERATURES BACK
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...NORTHWEST WINDS AT THE SLC TERMINAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE
GUSTY FROM 21Z THROUGH 00Z...BUT THERE IS ONLY A 20 PERCENT CHANCE
OF WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 30 MPH. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO
THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 03Z AND 05Z...THOUGH PERIODS OF LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS COULD CONTINUE THROUGH 07Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES OVERNIGHT.
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS PROGRESSED SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN
UTAH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH COOLER...DRY AND STABLE AIR FOLLOWING THE
FRONT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE
THROUGH MONDAY.

A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
STRENGTHENS TO THE SOUTH OF UTAH. TEMPS WILL RETURN TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS MIDWEEK. THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH
ENTERING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE TUESDAY WILL GENERATE INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN UTAH. THIS STORM SYSTEM
COULD ALSO DRAW SOME MOISTURE NORTH INTO SOUTHERN UTAH FOR LATE
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE ISOLATED CONVECTION FORM OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL COOL
AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NEXT
TROUGH SWEEPS SOUTH ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...TRAPHAGAN
FIRE WEATHER...CONGER
AVIATION...SCHOENING

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



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